We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Selhurst Park with our Crystal Palace vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Can the Red Devils avenge last season’s humiliating loss to the Eagles?
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer struggles to separate the teams ahead of Saturday’s late kick-off. Manchester United are given a 39.1% chance of victory to Crystal Palace’s 35.9%.
- Oliver Glasner’s Palace beat United 4-0 in the Premier League last season – only eight managers have ever won their first two meetings with the Red Devils in the competition, most recently Roberto De Zerbi with Brighton in September 2023.
- Man Utd captain Bruno Fernandes has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (13).
Manchester United have suffered their fair share of chastening defeats in recent years, but May’s 4-0 loss to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park prompted more soul-searching than most. On Saturday, Erik ten Hag’s men return to the scene of that defeat, desperate to atone with their hosts yet to win in the Premier League this season.
United were blown away on their last trip to Selhurst Park as Jean-Philippe Mateta and Tyrick Mitchell joined Michael Olise, who helped himself to a brace, on the scoresheet.
Oliver Glasner now has a chance to become just the ninth manager in Premier League history to win his first two matches against United in the competition, with Roberto De Zerbi the most recent to do so with Brighton and Hove Albion 12 months ago.
United appeared to be in the midst of yet another crisis when they emerged from the international break with just three points from their first three games of 2024-25, but back-to-back wins have steadied the ship somewhat, the Red Devils winning 3-0 at Southampton last Saturday before crushing third-tier Barnsley 7-0 in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
United’s underlying metrics for this season actually tell a somewhat positive story, with their expected goals (xG) figure of 7.9 being the third-highest in the Premier League. However, they have only netted five times, with only Southampton (one goal from 4.6 xG) underperforming their xG by a greater margin this term.
Ten Hag will hope Tuesday’s big win, which featured braces for Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho and Christian Eriksen as well as a penalty from Antony, will breathe more confidence into his misfiring attack.
Captain Bruno Fernandes has endured a particularly frustrating start to 2024-25, attempting more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League (13). With frontman Rasmus Højlund still out injured, the Portuguese midfielder is one of the men Ten Hag needs to step up.
At the other end, United have kept three clean sheets in their last five Premier League matches, as many as they managed in their previous 24, though they were indebted to an André Onana penalty save at St Mary’s last week. The Red Devils have, however, lost both of the games in which they have conceded during this span.
How Palace could do with a repeat of May’s performance against United after an awkward start to 2024-25. Last week’s 2-2 draw with Leicester City made it four league games without a victory for the Eagles this campaign (two draws, two losses); they ended 2023-24 by winning six of their last seven (one draw).
Palace twice fell behind at home to the Foxes, only for Mateta to bail them out with a brace, clinching a point with a stoppage-time penalty. Since Glasner’s first game in charge of Palace on February 24, only Erling Haaland (19) has scored more Premier League goals than Mateta (15 in 17 games).
In that time, the Frenchman has scored multiple goals on four occasions (three braces, one hat-trick) – only Wilfried Zaha has ever scored more than once in more different Premier League games for Palace (six braces).
Palace did advance in the EFL Cup in midweek, however, beating Queens Park Rangers 2-1 with Eberechi Eze among the goals against his former club. Eze’s 18 shots attempted in the Premier League this term is three times more than any of his teammates (Mateta and Eddie Nketiah have had six), but he has only netted once. He also leads Palace for chances created (eight) but is yet to register an assist.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
Crystal Palace did the double over Manchester United in the Premier League last season, the first time they’ve ever beaten them in consecutive league matches.
Indeed, having won none of their first 20 Premier League meetings with United (four draws, 16 defeats), the Eagles have now won five of their last 10 against them in the division (two draws, three defeats).
United have lost two of their last three away league games against Palace, drawing the other, having been unbeaten in their previous 13 such visits to Selhurst Park, nine wins, four draws.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Prediction
Given what happened when United last visited Selhurst Park, it is perhaps no surprise that the Opta supercomputer isn’t enthusiastically backing them for success.
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 39.1%, while Palace won in 35.9%. The remaining 25% of scenarios saw the points shared.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, United are given just a 10.6% chance of finishing in the top four, while Palace’s difficult start means 14th (12.6%) is now deemed their likeliest final position.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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