We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Who will claim the bragging rights in this huge north London derby?
Tottenham vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for Sunday’s derby, giving them a 43% chance of victory over Tottenham, who are assigned a 31.5% chance of a win.
- Arsenal have won their last two Premier League away games against Spurs, as many as in their previous 17 visits (six draws, nine defeats).
- Tottenham skipper Son Heung-min has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions. In the history of the fixture, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more north London derby goals than the South Korean.
The Premier League is back following the first international break of the season, and Sunday’s headline fixture looks to be worth the wait as Tottenham host Arsenal.
The first north London derby of the campaign comes after disappointing results for both sides on Matchday 3, with Arsenal losing early ground on Manchester City and Liverpool as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton and Hove Albion.
Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs, meanwhile, were beaten 2-1 at Newcastle United, leaving them three points behind their rivals in the early season standings.
That loss came despite Tottenham firing off 20 shots to the hosts’ nine, also enjoying 65.7% possession and playing almost as many passes in the final third (235) as Newcastle did overall (261). The ‘Spursy’ tag continues to haunt Postecoglou’s men, who also failed to make their dominance count in a Matchday 1 draw at Leicester City.
The north London derby has often provided an acid test of Spurs’ resilience, and they must tighten up for a fixture that has not featured too many clean sheets.
Arsenal versus Tottenham has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43 times), while it is also the fixture to see the team who scored first fail to win more often than any other (29 times, 19 draws and 10 losses).
Postecoglou is hoping to see Micky van de Ven get over a knee injury ahead of Sunday’s game, while midfielder Yves Bissouma and striker Dominic Solanke are also fitness doubts.
Should Solanke not recover from an ankle injury that caused him to miss Spurs’ last two games, captain Son Heung-min could be handed a central striking role. He has eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions; in the history of the fixture (all competitions), only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more north London derby goals than the South Korean.
Arsenal, meanwhile, dropped their first points of the campaign last time out versus Brighton. But it could be that the dismissal of Declan Rice, who received a second yellow card for kicking the ball away early in the second half, proves more of an inconvenience than the result.
The first red card of Rice’s Premier League career – coming on his 245th appearance in the competition – has handed Arteta a major selection dilemma in the engine room.
Rice started 37 of the Gunners’ 38 Premier League games last season, appearing as a substitute in the other. It is often said that availability is the best ability, and Rice’s 3,230 Premier League minutes in 2023-24 were only bettered by eight other outfielders – teammate William Saliba (with a full 3,420) among them.
With Rice patrolling the midfield, Arsenal were a picture of control last season, giving up the joint-fourth fewest fast breaks in the Premier League (23) and the joint-fifth fewest shots from fast breaks (20).
Thomas Partey and Jorginho, the men likely to be tasked with holding the fort, will come up against a Spurs side with plenty of pace in transition, and the likes of Son, Wilson Odobert and Brennan Johnson will be desperate to exploit Rice’s void.
Tottenham scored three goals from 25 fast breaks in Premier League action last term, finding the net every 8.3 fast breaks on average – only eight teams netted from such situations at a greater frequency.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
This is a fixture in which Tottenham have struggled lately, losing five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal (one win, one draw). That is more defeats than they suffered in their previous 16 against their rivals (six wins, six draws and four defeats).
Further to that, Arsenal have won their last two Premier League trips to Tottenham, as many as in their previous 17 visits (six draws, nine defeats).
They last won three consecutive away north London derbies between January 1987 and September 1988.
Draws have been a rarity at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which has seen the lowest percentage of draws (9%, 9/101) of any ground in Premier League history, so perhaps we shouldn’t expect the spoils to be shared.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal have had the upper hand in north London derbies of late, and the Opta supercomputer makes them slight favourites despite the absence of home advantage.
They were victorious in 43% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 match simulations, with Tottenham triumphing in 31.5% and the remaining 25.5% finishing all square.
In our 2024-25 season predictions, Arsenal have seen their title chances drop to 6.7% following perfect starts for City (84.7%) and Liverpool (8.4%). Tottenham, meanwhile, are assigned a 12.5% chance of making the top four.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Radu Drăgușin, Destiny Udogie, Rodrigo Bentancur, Pape Sarr, Son Heung-min, James Maddison, Wilson Odobert, Dejan Kulusevski.
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Jurriën Timber, Jorginho, Thomas Partey, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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