The Opta supercomputer‘s West Ham vs Chelsea prediction sees the Blues as the most likely team to pick up all three points at London Stadium this weekend. Will that prediction be correct? We preview Saturday’s Premier League clash.
West Ham vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Chelsea as the favourites for this one, with the visitors winning 44% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- Chelsea only have more wins against Tottenham (35) than West Ham United (30) in Premier League history.
- Enzo Maresca could become the first manager since Pep Guardiola in 2016 to win their first three away games in charge in the competition.
Chelsea still have much room for improvement but Enzo Maresca will be pleased with their start to this Premier League season, which they continue away to West Ham on Saturday.
Maresca’s side head to London Stadium for the early kick-off, aiming for back-to-back league victories after Christopher Nkunku’s late strike snatched a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last time out.
The Frenchman’s winner came after being introduced in the second half at the Vitality Stadium – in fact, all four of his Premier League goals from Chelsea have come from the bench. It’s the joint-most goals a player has scored in the competition’s history with 100% of them as a substitute.
Nkunku’s deft finish came from a fine Jadon Sancho pass on his first league start for the club after his move from Manchester United, with an explosive finale befitting an ill-tempered game throughout on the south coast.
Maresca insisted his side must get themselves “dirty” after a battling victory in which they were shown eight yellow cards, their most in a Premier League game (excluding second yellows/red cards). Fourteen were shown in total, which was a record in the competition’s history.
Indeed, Chelsea’s 16 yellow cards are the most in the competition to date this season but that will matter for little if the visitors can continue to prosper away from Stamford Bridge. They have won their last four Premier League away games, including last campaign, though the Blues have not managed five such triumphs since December 2021 under Thomas Tuchel.
Matching that streak would make history for Maresca, who could become the first manager to win their first three away games in the competition since Pep Guardiola did with Manchester City in 2016.
Having also hammered Wolves 6-2 at Molineux last month, Chelsea will fancy their chances of condemning West Ham to a third straight Premier League defeat at home. Another London Stadium defeat would mean West Ham have lost their first three league home games of a season for the first time in history, following reverses to Aston Villa and Man City.
The change from David Moyes to Julen Lopetegui has hardly inspired a turnaround so far, too, with West Ham fortunate to draw 1-1 with Fulham last time out after Danny Ings’ stoppage-time equaliser.
Including Moyes’ spell, only Everton (22) and Wolves (19) have picked up fewer Premier League points in 2024 than West Ham (23 – W5 D8 L10) among the 17 ever-present sides. Concerningly for Lopetegui’s hopes on Saturday, all five of those victories have been against teams in the bottom half of the table, drawing four and losing seven against sides in the top 10.
Lopetegui needs to find a defensive solution, with his side facing more shots than any other side across the opening four league games. It’s the highest number of shots (18.3) they’ve faced per game since 2010-11 when they were relegated (also 18.3).
At the other end, decisions remain for West Ham over the selection of Niclas Füllkrug or Michail Antonio. The Jamaican striker has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League games against Chelsea, scoring three and assisting two, so that may sway Lopetegui’s thinking.
West Ham vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Chelsea thrashed Saturday’s opponents 5-0 the last time these two teams met back in May, with Cole Palmer, Conor Gallagher, Noni Madueke and Nicolas Jackson (2) all on target at Stamford Bridge.
That victory was Chelsea’s 30th against their London rivals in the competition, only managing more against Tottenham Hotspur (35) in Premier League history.
The Hammers were 3-1 victors in this exact fixture last campaign, however, with Nayef Aguerd scoring before being sent off, and goals for Antonio and Lucas Paquetá.
West Ham have not managed back-to-back home victories over Chelsea in the league since 2001-02 and 2002-03, though, alternating between winning (5) and not winning (D2 L3) in their last 10 Premier League matches on their own turf against the Blues.
West Ham vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer sees Chelsea as the slight favourites on Saturday, with the visitors winning 44.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
West Ham still have a healthy 31.3% chance of victory, however. The draw is less likely, coming in in 24.6% of data-led scenarios.
Derby-day victory would only further boost Chelsea’s 29.8% likelihood of a top-four finish in Opta’s end-of-season predictions, while West Ham jump from their current 14th position to 10th most often in 11.4% of the same model.
West Ham vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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