We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at St Mary’s with our Southampton vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Erik ten Hag is predicted to get back on track.
Southampton vs Man Utd Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester United have lost their last two matches, but the Opta supercomputer makes them favourites, giving them a 52.2% win probability.
- If Southampton are beaten, they will be the fifth team to lose as many as 400 Premier League matches.
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games against Southampton since a 1-0 loss in August 2003.
A sorry 3-0 home defeat to Liverpool saw Man Utd head into the international break with a whimper, and on the back of two straight Premier League losses.
United have lost as many as two of their first three league games in a season for the second time under Erik ten Hag (also 2022-23), as many times as they had in their previous 29 campaigns combined (2018-19 and 2020-21). They last lost three of their first four back in 1986-87.
But a match against one of the only two winless teams in the Premier League as it stands presents a great opportunity for United to get back on track in Saturday’s early kick-off.
Southampton were beaten 3-1 at Brentford last time out. They are now on 399 Premier League defeats from 927 matches, and are on the brink of becoming the fifth team to lose as many as 400 games in the competition, and in the fewest amount of fixtures (West Ham 976, Aston Villa 1,072, Newcastle 1,090, Everton 1,128).
Saints will want to avoid becoming the first team to lose each of their first four matches in three different Premier League seasons, previously having done so in 1998-99 and 2012-13 (the last time they were a promoted side).
Russell Martin’s team might consider themselves unfortunate not to have any points on the board, though, given they have underperformed their 3.5 expected goals (xG) considerably. They have struggled to convert their average of 68.1% possession (the second-highest total in the league, behind Tottenham’s 69.1%) into actual goals.
Indeed, their shot conversion rate of just 2.4% is the lowest in the division.
United, meanwhile, have scored around three goals fewer than their xG suggests they should have so far this season (two goals from 5.2 xG), the biggest such difference in the competition this term.
Errors have been a huge problem for both these teams. Southampton (four) and United (three) have made the most errors leading to a goal in the Premier League this season. All three of the goals the Red Devils conceded in their loss at Liverpool came via errors, the first time on record they have ever committed as many in a single Premier League match (since 2007-08).
New Southampton goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, signed from Arsenal on deadline day, is set to make his home debut at St Mary’s. Since keeping a clean sheet in his first Premier League game against United while at Bournemouth in November 2019, the England international has conceded in each of his last eight games against United. His 19 goals conceded in these games is the joint-most he’s shipped against any opponent in the competition (also 19 v Liverpool).
Southampton vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
United are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games against Southampton (W7 D5) since a 1-0 loss in August 2003, so while they may be out of form, there is reason for Ten Hag to be confident.
In fact, Southampton are winless in their last 14 Premier League meetings with United (D8 L6) since a 1-0 away win in January 2016.
United have come from behind to beat Southampton in 10 different Premier League games – only Liverpool have more comeback wins against a single opponent in the competition’s history (11 v Newcastle United).
The Red Devils have also only lost one of their last 30 Premier League games against promoted sides (W22 D7), winning 15 of their last 17 since a 4-1 loss at Watford in November 2021.
Southampton vs Man Utd Prediction
Opta’s supercomputer has run the simulations, and Man Utd came out on top in 52.2% of them.
Southampton’s chances are rated at 23.6%, while the likelihood of a draw is 24.2%.
Southampton vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups
Southampton: Aaron Ramsdale, Jack Stephens, Jan Bednarek, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Kyle Walker-Peters, Joe Aribo, Flynn Downes, Will Smallbone, Yukinari Sugawara, Ben Brereton Díaz, Adam Armstrong
Manchester United: André Onana, Diogo Dalot, Lisandro Martínez, Matthijs de Ligt, Noussair Mazraoui, Kobbie Mainoo, Casemiro, Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes, Alejandro Garnacho, Joshua Zirkzee
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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