We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Stamford Bridge with
our Chelsea vs Manchester City prediction and preview. Will the champions start
with a victory?
Chelsea vs Manchester City Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer is predicting that champions Manchester City will start with a win on Sunday, giving them a 59.6% chance of beating Chelsea.
- Enzo Maresca will be the fourth Chelsea boss to face the reigning champions in his first Premier League game in charge. None of the previous three – Claudio Ranieri, Avram Grant and Rafael Benítez – started with a victory.
- Erling Haaland could become the first player in Premier League history to start three different seasons with a brace, having scored twice versus West Ham in 2022-23 and against Burnley in 2023-24.
Another new season, another new head coach at Stamford Bridge. Enzo Maresca could hardly have been handed a tougher assignment as he leads Chelsea in the Premier League for the first time, with champions Manchester City the visitors to SW6 on Sunday.
Maresca is set to become the fourth Chelsea boss to face the defending champions in his first Premier League game at the helm, with none of the previous three starting with a win.
Claudio Ranieri oversaw a 3-3 draw with Manchester United in September 2000, Avram Grant’s tenure started with a 2-0 defeat to the Red Devils in September 2007 and Rafael Benitez’s Blues held City to a goalless draw on his November 2012 bow.
Despite leading Leicester City to the Championship title with an impressive haul of 97 points last season, Maresca – who previously served as manager of City’s Elite Development Squad in 2020-21 – was a somewhat left-field appointment by Todd Boehly, and banking some early credit, something his predecessor Mauricio Pochettino failed to do, could prove crucial.
As a coach straight out of the Guardiola school, Maresca is expected to instil a heavy pressing, possession-based style in West London, but something different might be in order on Sunday with City sure to dictate proceedings.
Maresca could hand a Chelsea debut to former Wolves winger Pedro Neto, whose €60 million (£51.4m) arrival earlier this week made him the most expensive of nine new acquisitions at Stamford Bridge.
He could threaten City on the break, having travelled, on average, 14.5 metres per carry in the Premier League last season, ranking third in the division behind Chiedozie Ogbene (15.13) and Anthony Elanga (14.54).
Only 12 players, meanwhile, managed more assist-ending carries than Neto’s three in 2023-24, despite the jet-heeled winger being limited to just 1,518 Premier League minutes by injury.
Neto’s preference for a right-wing role could lead Cole Palmer to be shifted inside, and he will be desperate to make more memories against his former club on Sunday, having scored a stoppage-time penalty as Chelsea salvaged a 4-4 draw in this exact fixture last season.
That was one of 33 Premier League goal involvements (22 goals, 11 assists) he recorded in 2023-24 – more than any other player. Sixteen of his goals came in home games, the joint-most a Chelsea player has ever netted at Stamford Bridge in a single campaign, alongside Didier Drogba in 2006-07 and Frank Lampard in 2009-10.
While it has been a busy off-season for the Blues, City boss Pep Guardiola continues to put his faith in the group that delivered an unprecedented fourth straight title last season, with the arrival of former Girona loanee Savinho and the sale of Julián Álvarez to Atlético Madrid the only major transfers sanctioned by City.
Guardiola faces a major issue as he begins his ninth campaign at the helm, though, with star midfielder Rodri ruled out having only returned to training on Wednesday, after being named Player of the Tournament as Spain won Euro 2024.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, City have only lost six of the 102 matches they have played with Rodri in their starting lineup, suffering as many defeats in 18 games without the Spaniard during this span.
In the Premier League last term, they boasted a record of 27 wins, seven draws and no defeats when Rodri appeared, but lost three of four games (one win) when he was absent.
City conceded the joint-most goals from fast breaks in the Premier League last season (seven, alongside Crystal Palace and Brighton and Hove Albion) despite giving up the seventh-fewest fast breaks in total (26). With their midfield enforcer missing out, that could offer real encouragement to Chelsea.
The Blues will, however, have to be wary of the threat posed by two-time Premier League Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland, who has garnered a reputation as a fast starter since his 2022 arrival at the Etihad.
The Norwegian has started both of his Premier League seasons with a Matchday 1 brace, scoring twice versus West Ham in 2022-23 and Burnley in 2023-24, and he could become the first player in Premier League history to achieve that feat in three different seasons.
Chelsea vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Man City’s last trip to Stamford Bridge resulted in what was surely the game of the 2023-24 season, as City academy graduate Palmer scored a last-gasp penalty for Chelsea in a 4-4 draw last November.
The Blues are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with Man City, however, recording two draws and four defeats since Thomas Tuchel led them to a 2-1 victory at the Etihad Stadium in May 2021.
That result was swiftly followed by another victory in the 2021 Champions League final, but City have since gone unbeaten through nine meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (seven wins, two draws), the joint-longest run without defeat against the Blues in their history (also nine between 1936 and 1949).
Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is firmly behind the champions ahead of Matchday 1, with 10,000 simulations of Sunday’s game resulting in Man City being assigned a 59.6% chance of victory.
The chances of the points being shared are rated at 20.8%, with Chelsea only triumphant in 19.6% of scenarios.
It will come as a surprise to nobody to hear City are overwhelming favourites to defend their title in 2024-25, the supercomputer giving them an 82.2% chance of topping the pile.
Meanwhile, fourth is Chelsea’s most common position in our season simulations, the Blues scraping UEFA Champions League qualification in 20% of scenarios.
Chelsea vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Filip Jørgensen, Marc Cucurella, Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Malo Gusto, Roméo Lavia, Enzo Fernández, Raheem Sterling, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Cole Palmer, Christopher Nkunku.
Manchester City: Ederson, Josko Gvardiol, Rúben Dias, Manuel Akanji, Rico Lewis, Mateo Kovacic, Nico O’Reilly, Jérémy Doku, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Erling Haaland.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday afternoon at Stamford Bridge, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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