We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Manchester City vs Brentford prediction and preview. Can the champions keep up their perfect start?
Man City vs Brentford Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester City are the overwhelming favourites in the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match predictions, downing Brentford in 76.1% of simulations.
- Erling Haaland has seven goals in the Premier League this season, the most ever by a player in a team’s first three matches of a campaign in the competition.
- Brentford have won two of their three Premier League games this season (L1), their best start to a campaign in the competition.
Only the international break could stop Erling Haaland’s freak scoring run in the Premier League, with Brentford next in the sights of Manchester City‘s talisman on Saturday.
Thomas Frank’s side have won two of their opening three Premier League games this season – against Crystal Palace and Southampton – but an entirely different challenge awaits at the Etihad Stadium.
Man City have won all three of their league games this term, powered by the goal-scoring maniac Haaland. The Norwegian is the first player to score seven goals across a team’s opening three matches in the competition, having netted back-to-back hat-tricks against Ipswich Town and West Ham, as well as another strike on the opening weekend at Chelsea.
Wayne Rooney’s eight goals in Manchester United’s first four games of the 2011-12 campaign marks the next record in Haaland’s reach, and it is easy to imagine the striker setting another benchmark come Saturday evening.
Haaland will be ably supported by winger Jérémy Doku, who has progressed the ball upfield 747.8 metres via ball carries in the Premier League this season, almost 300m more than any other player (Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke is second with 457.3m).
The Belgian’s 64 progressive carries is also a league-high, along with his 17 carries ending in a take-on, leaving Brentford’s players with a few sleepless nights before their trip to the Etihad.
Stopping Haaland is one near-impossible challenge, but thwarting the title-winning machine of Pep Guardiola is another thankless task for Frank’s visitors.
City have won each of their opening four matches of an English top-flight campaign on eight previous occasions (1903-04, 1912-13, 1961-62, 2009-10, 2011-12, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2023-24), which is already the most of any club.
Adding a ninth instance seems probable considering City have won each of their last 12 Premier League games, all by a margin of 2+ goals. Under Guardiola alone, the Citizens are responsible for six of the 16 runs of 12+ consecutive wins by clubs in English top-flight history (38%).
Brentford’s record away from the Gtech Community Stadium will hardly provide much hope for the travelling supporters. Their 13 away defeats are the most of any current top-flight team in the Premier League since the start of last season.
Frank’s men have also lost each of their last five away league games against sides that finished the previous season in the Premier League’s top four, though will head to Manchester armed with two of their own star attackers.
Both Bryan Mbeumo (2) and Yoane Wissa (1) were on target in their last 3-1 win over Southampton, with the duo scoring in two of Brentford’s three top-flight games this season. The two forwards have scored in the same Premier League match 13 times, at least 10 more than any other duo for the Bees.
At the other end, there appears to be a change of tactics for Frank’s previously high-pressing side. Brentford have allowed their opponents on average 16.7 passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the Premier League this season, the highest figure of any side, and the highest in any of their four campaigns in the competitions
Though tactical changes are aplenty, little has altered in terms of Frank’s team news. Brentford will be without Igor Thiago, Aaron Hickey, Rico Henry and Joshua Dasilva.
For the hosts, Phil Foden withdrew from international duty with England and faces a race to be fit for Saturday, along with Brazilian winger Savinho. Oscar Bobb remains Guardiola’s only long-term absentee.
Man City vs Brentford Head-to-Head
City have won four of their six Premier League games against Brentford (L2), doing the double over them in both 2021-22 and last season.
Foden rifled an incredible hat-trick in the 3-1 away victory over Saturday’s opponents last term, while Haaland’s 71st-minute finish proved the difference in this exact fixture back in February.
However, not all hope is lost for Brentford. They are the last side to win away to Man City in any competition, winning 2-1 in November 2022 thanks to Ivan Toney’s stoppage-time winner at the Etihad.
Guardiola’s side are unbeaten in 45 at home in all competitions since that defeat (W38 D7), though, and the pre-match predictions suggest that run will continue on Saturday.
Man City vs Brentford Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than a home win, with Man City victorious in a dominant 76.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Brentford may be the last side to win at the Etihad but managed a repeat in just 9.7% of simulations, with the draw more likely at 14.1%.
Man City are already the runaway favourites in Opta’s end-of-season predictions, remaining first and winning the title in a massive 84.5% of simulations. Brentford, meanwhile, drop down from sixth to 11th most often in 11.2%.
Man City vs Brentford Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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