We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Everton prediction and preview. Can the Toffees stop the rot?
Aston Villa vs Everton Stats: The Key Insights
- Aston Villa are the strong favourites for this clash, overcoming Everton in 60.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Everton are one of just two sides to lose their first three Premier League games this season.
- Villa are unbeaten in all 10 of their top-flight meetings with Everton since returning to the Premier League in 2019 (W7 D3).
Sean Dyche desperately needs a positive result when his struggling Everton travel to Aston Villa for Saturday’s Premier League clash.
The early season international break will have offered Dyche a chance to ponder the dismal collapse in their 3-2 home defeat to Bournemouth last time out. Having led 2-0 through goals from Michael Keane and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Everton somehow conceded three times from the 87th minute onwards in a humiliating defeat at Goodison Park; it was the latest a team has been two goals ahead in a Premier League match they’ve gone on to lose.
That also left Everton, along with Southampton, as one of only two teams to have lost their first three Premier League games of the 2024-25 season. Only in 1926-27 (5) and 1958-59 (6) have the Toffees ever had a longer losing run from the beginning of a league campaign.
This is not a new issue, though, as including last season, Everton have lost each of their last four top-flight games. A dreadful October 2005 under David Moyes was the last time they lost five in a row in the competition (run of 6).
Dyche’s men were also hammered 4-0 in their most recent away league game at Tottenham, and their recent record after international breaks will hardly have Everton supporters hopeful at Villa Park.
Everton have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League games that have immediately followed an international window (W1 D1), including all four such matches last season. Villa, by contrast, have won each of their last five league matches after such a break.
Unai Emery’s men will be confident heading into this one as well, having managed 2-1 away victories over Leicester City and West Ham either side of a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Arsenal.
Super sub Jhon Durán scored a second-half winner last time out at Leicester, who had earlier cancelled out Amadou Onana’s opener with a goal from Brighton loanee Facundo Buonanotte.
Despite only starting three Premier League games in his career, Durán has scored seven goals in the competition, with six of these coming as a substitute. His average of 96 minutes per goal is the best of any Villa player to score 3+ times for the club in the Premier League.
With UEFA Champions League football on the horizon, Emery may soon look to Durán as a capable deputy to first-choice striker Ollie Watkins, though he’ll want to get this home clash out of the way with a first home victory of the season.
Villa have won just four of their last 12 Premier League home games, a complete contrast to their 15 successive wins at Villa Park in the competition prior to that between December and March.
Having fallen to Arsenal already, Villa will be desperate to avoid losing both of their first two home matches of a Premier League season for just a second time, having also done so in 2013-14.
The hosts’ squad could be boosted by the return of Jaden Philogene and Diego Carlos, though Leon Bailey, Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings and Boubacar Kamara remain out. Séamus Coleman faces a race to be fit for Everton, meanwhile, with the visitors also set to be missing Jarrad Branthwaite, Nathan Patterson, Youssef Chermiti and Armando Broja.
Aston Villa vs Everton Head-to-Head
Villa are unbeaten in all 10 of their league meetings with Everton (W7 D3) since their return to the Premier League five years ago, keeping seven clean sheets and conceding just three goals.
Indeed, Everton have lost four of their last five Premier League trips to Villa Park (D1), having won three of their previous four such visits before this (L1).
John McGinn, Douglas Luiz, Bailey and Durán were all on target in this corresponding fixture last term as Villa smashed four past Everton without conceding back in August.
In fact, Everton have only scored once in their last five Premier League away games against Villa, with that coming via a Lucas Digne own goal in August 2022. The last Toffees player to score a league goal at Villa Park was Romelu Lukaku in March 2016.
Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction
Villa may have struggled on their own turf in recent outings, but the Opta supercomputer is backing a home win for Emery’s side here – they come out on top in 60.9% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Concerningly for Dyche, Everton only managed all three points in 18.4% of the same data-led sims, with the draw more likely at 20.7%.
Villa are not expected to replicate last season’s top-four heroics in Opta’s end-of-season simulations, finishing sixth – one above their current position – most often in 12.9%. Everton currently sit bottom of the table but narrowly escape relegation by finishing 17th most often (16.3%) in the predictions.
Aston Villa vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Lamare Bogarde, Pau Torres, Kortney Hause, Lucas Digne; Jacob Ramsey, Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana, John McGinn, Jhon Durán, Morgan Rogers.
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Ashley Young, Michael Keane, James Tarkowski, Vitaliy Mykolenko, Idrissa Gueye, Tim Iroegbunam, Iliman Ndiaye, Dwight McNeil, Jack Harrison, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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