The Opta supercomputer is predicting that Manchester City will defeat Arsenal in this huge Premier League clash on Sunday, but will it be correct? We look ahead to the match at the Etihad Stadium with our Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester City are considered favourites for victory against title rivals Arsenal, winning in 52% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Arsenal are assigned a 23.5% chance of a win.
- Arsenal haven’t trailed in any of their last 11 away league games and could become the first side to go 12 successive Premier League matches on the road without falling behind.
- Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in four Premier League games this season. The fewest appearances any player has taken to reach double figures in a single campaign is six, by Mick Quinn in 1992-93 and Haaland himself in 2022-23.
Having won an unprecedented fourth straight Premier League title last season, Manchester City have wasted no time in stealing a march on their rivals in 2024-25.
As the only team to register a perfect four wins from four matches, City already boast a two-point lead over their closest challengers, the identity of whom also comes as no surprise. Such has been City’s brilliance that amassing 173 points across the last two seasons has not been enough for Arsenal to end their long wait for a Premier League crown.
However, last week’s north London derby victory over Tottenham saw them display all the hallmarks of potential champions, keeping their fierce rivals at arm’s length in a composed performance as Gabriel Magalhães’ header made the difference.
But can the Gunners go one step further and do what they could not last season – win at the Etihad Stadium?
It is fair to say the last meeting between these rivals was not a classic, with Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta opting to start eight – yes, eight – recognised centre-backs between them as the teams played out a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium in March.
That game produced a mere 1.68 expected goals (xG) in total, and while many felt Arsenal would be happier with the result, even following it with eight wins from their final nine games of 2023-24 (one defeat) was not enough to overhaul City at the top of the table.
Will Arteta opt to release the handbrake this time around? When Arsenal last visited the Etihad, they attempted just six shots totalling 0.66 xG, the fewest shots they had registered in a Premier League game since attempting five in a 4-0 loss to Liverpool in November 2021.
Arsenal also managed just 15 touches in City’s box to their opponents’ 40, their fewest in any Premier League match last season, while only at Bournemouth (28 in a ruthless 4-0 win) did they play fewer passes into the final third last term (36).
The Gunners have been steady, rather than spectacular, through their opening four Premier League matches of the season, ranking joint-14th in the Premier League for shots (45) and 14th for xG (4.99) despite having the fourth-most touches in the opposition’s penalty area (140).
And with captain Martin Ødegaard sidelined with what Arteta has described as a “significant” ankle injury, there’s every chance that Arsenal will head to Manchester with a similar approach to that which they used at Spurs last weekend. In midweek, they played out a goalless draw with Atalanta which again displayed their defensive prowess but also just how much they lack in attack without the Norwegian.
The Gunners will need Bukayo Saka to continue his flying start to the season on Sunday. He has been involved in five of Arsenal’s six league goals this season (one goal, four assists), teeing up a goal in all four matches thus far. Only Gunners great Thierry Henry (in 2004-05) has ever provided an assist in five straight games to start a Premier League campaign.
Arteta will have Declan Rice available after he was suspended for last week’s win at Spurs, while Raheem Sterling could be involved against his former club, having arrived on loan from Chelsea.
Sterling (91), along with Sergio Agüero (184), is one of just two players with more Premier League goals for City than Erling Haaland (72). The Norwegian is still eyeing his 100th goal for City across all competitions, having been kept on 99 by Inter in their UEFA Champions League opener on Wednesday.
Haaland has nine goals in just four league outings this season, with eight of those coming in his last three – hat-tricks versus Ipswich Town and West Ham, and a double against Brentford. In Premier League history, only Luis Suárez has ever scored multiple goals in four straight appearances, netting one hat-trick and three braces in a tremendous run for Liverpool in December 2013.
Another goal here would also see Haaland smash the record for the fewest games taken to reach double figures for Premier League goals at the start of a season, with Mick Quinn in 1992-93 and Haaland himself in 2022-23 previously doing so in six outings.
Following City’s failure to find a way past Inter, Guardiola may consider introducing Jérémy Doku into his starting lineup. The winger leads all players in the Premier League this term for total progress upfield from carries (747.81 metres) and ranks second for progressive carries (64), behind only Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke (66). In fact, he is the only non-centre-back to make the top seven for that particular metric.
Whatever happens in the headline fixture of Matchday 5, something has to give. City have won each of their last 13 Premier League matches, and there have only ever been six cases of a team winning 14 or more in a row.
City – and current boss Guardiola – are responsible for half of those instances, winning 18 straight in 2017, 15 in a row in 2019 and the same amount in 2021.
Arsenal, though, have not trailed at any stage in their last 11 away Premier League matches. They could become the first team in the competition’s history to go 12 straight away games without falling behind, with Aston Villa also enjoying an 11-game run back in 1998.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Man City are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home games against Arsenal (seven wins, two draws) since a 2-0 defeat in January 2015.
However, Arsenal earned four points against City in the Premier League last season, double the amount they had from their previous 15 such meetings with the Citizens (two draws, 13 losses).
The Gunners also kept a clean sheet in both Premier League meetings with City last term, having conceded at least once in their last 16 against the Citizens beforehand (40 goals in total).
Arsenal have won 99 of their 211 meetings with Manchester City in all competitions (47 draws, 65 defeats). They’ve only reached triple figures for victories against Everton (111), while it’s the most defeats the Citizens have suffered against an opponent in their history.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing City to make it five wins from five games on Sunday, with the champions victorious in 52% of our pre-match simulations.
Arsenal are assigned a 23.5% chance of taking all three points, while another draw is given a 24.5% likelihood.
In our latest 2024-25 season predictions, City are given an 85.0% chance of securing an unprecedented fifth straight title, with Arsenal seen as the most likely team to dethrone them, with a 10.7% chance of topping the pile.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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