We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at London Stadium with our West Ham vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Can Unai Emery replicate the heroics from last season?
West Ham vs Aston Villa Stats: The Key Insights
- West Ham are deemed as the narrow favourites against Aston Villa, winning 41.1% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- The Hammers have won their opening Premier League match in just one of the last eight seasons.
- Ollie Watkins has scored 13 Premier League goals in London, the most of any player in Aston Villa history.
Julen Lopetegui hopes to start his West Ham tenure with victory as his new-look side welcome Aston Villa to London Stadium for Saturday’s late kick-off in the Premier League.
The Spaniard won his first Premier League game in charge of Wolves, a 2-1 win against Everton, while his last victory in the competition was a 1-0 home triumph over Villa in May 2023.
Replacing David Moyes, Lopetegui has been significantly backed in the transfer window already. Max Kilman, Jean-Clair Todibo, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Niclas Füllkrug and Crysencio Summerville are the headline additions, along with young winger Luis Guilherme and World Cup winner Guido Rodríguez.
Summerville was involved in 28 Championship goals last season for Leeds United (19 goals, 9 assists excluding play-offs). Only Southampton’s Adam Armstrong (34) and Blackburn’s Sammie Szmodics (31) were involved in more.
The Dutch winger will add further firepower to West Ham’s attacking ranks, joining Mohammed Kudus, Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paquetá as options in behind German striker Füllkrug or Michail Antonio.
At the back, it will be hoped Kilman’s signing from Wolves, Wan-Bissaka’s arrival from Manchester United and the acquisition of Todibo – who opted for West Ham over Juventus – can improve a Hammers defence that struggled last season.
Saturday’s hosts have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games. Only once have they had a longer run without a clean sheet in the competition, going 24 games between March and November 2008.
West Ham have been slow to get going in new campaigns, too. They have won their opening top-flight match in just one of the last eight seasons (D1 L6), beating Newcastle United 4-2 in 2021-22. Indeed, the Hammers have lost more Premier League openers than any other side (15).
Villa have endured similar struggles, however. Unai Emery’s men have lost their opening league match in each of the last three seasons, conceding 10 goals in these games. They also lost the last time they faced West Ham in their first game, going down 1-0 at Upton Park in 2012-13.
Yet this Villa are a different proposition to previous years. Emery’s men will be playing UEFA Champions League football this season after finishing fourth in the top flight last campaign.
Having effectively sealed their European fate before the closing stages of 2023-24, Villa failed to win any of their last four Premier League games last term (D2 L2), their longest run without victory under Emery.
The Basque coach last had a longer run without a league win between May and September 2021 with Villarreal (D4 L1), though Emery will be expecting a refreshed and invigorated Villa to come out firing – inspired by Ollie Watkins.
England striker Watkins is Villa’s top Premier League goalscorer in games played in London, with 13 goals in the capital. He has 59 overall in the competition, behind only Gabriel Abgonlahor (74) and Dwight Yorke (60) for the Villans.
Watkins will be supported in attack by new signing Samuel Iling-Junior, who joined in a double move from Juventus with midfielder Enzo Barrenechea as Douglas Luiz went the other way to Turin.
Jaden Philogene has also returned as another wide option following an impressive one-season stay with Championship side Hull City, while Ian Maatsen and Amadou Onana will add quality further back after joining in the summer.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
West Ham have dominated this fixture in recent years, losing just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Villa (W6 D5).
Villa are also winless in their last nine top-flight away matches against Saturday’s opponents (D5 L4) since a 2-1 victory at Upton Park in April 2011. The pair shared a 1-1 draw at London Stadium last term as Nicolo Zaniolò and Michail Antonio scored.
Emery’s side were 4-1 victors at Villa Park last season, however, as Douglas Luiz scored twice, along with strikes from Watkins and Leon Bailey. Jarrod Bowen netted the lone goal for the Hammers.
Villa will also hold out hope knowing West Ham have lost on five of the six occasions they’ve begun a Premier League campaign against a side that finished in the previous season’s top four. The only exception was a 2-0 away win at Arsenal in 2015-16.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to split the two sides, with West Ham winning 41.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to an Aston Villa victory in 32.2%.
Both sides have struggled in their opening-day fixtures in recent years, so perhaps would settle for a draw, with that result forecast in 26.7% of data-led sims.
Overall, Villa are not expected to replicate last season’s heroics, finishing eighth most often (11%) in Opta’s pre-season predictions. West Ham’s most likely finish in the same simulations came in 12th (10.3%).
West Ham vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
West Ham: Alphonse Areola, Emerson, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Max Kilman, Vladimír Coufal, James Ward-Prowse, Tomás Soucek, Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paquetá, Jarrod Bowen, Niclas Füllkrug.
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Lucas Digne, Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa, Matty Cash, Jacob Ramsey, Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans, Leon Bailey, John McGinn, Ollie Watkins.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.