We look ahead to Saturday’s English Community Shield game at Wembley Stadium with our Manchester City vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Who will prevail in the curtain-raiser to the 2024-25 English season?
Manchester City vs Manchester United Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester City are predicted to win the 2024 Community Shield by the Opta supercomputer. Pep Guardiola’s side prevailed inside 90 minutes in 61.3% of pre-match simulations.
- Man City have competed in the previous three Community Shield games, but didn’t win any of them. Man Utd were the last team to lose four in a row (1998-2001).
- Erling Haaland has been involved in nine goals in six appearances against the Red Devils (six goals, three assists).
So, here we go again.
Just 11 weeks after they met in the FA Cup final, Manchester City and Manchester United return to Wembley to do it all over again in the Community Shield, with bragging rights, momentum and a big shield on the line.
This will be the eighth time in the history of the Community Shield that the match has been a repeat of the previous season’s FA Cup final, after 1957 (Man Utd vs Aston Villa), 1977 (Man Utd vs Liverpool), 1985 (Everton vs Man Utd), 1986 (Everton vs Liverpool), 1988 (Liverpool vs Wimbledon), 2007 (Man Utd vs Chelsea) and 2017 (Arsenal vs Chelsea).
Of the last eight occasions the Community Shield has been between the previous season’s champions and FA Cup winners, the team to have won the FA Cup has won the shield seven times, with the exception being Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Chelsea in 2018, which of course bodes well for Erik ten Hag’s side after their 2-1 victory over their neighbours in May.
City have been regular participants in the Community Shield in recent years. In fact, this will be the fourth consecutive year Pep Guardiola’s men are appearing in the competition, though they haven’t won any of the last three, having lost to Leicester City (2021), Liverpool (2022) and Arsenal (2023). Only Manchester United (1998 to 2001) have lost the Community Shield in four consecutive years.
In terms of its overall history, this is Manchester United’s competition. Including shared victories, they have won the Community Shield more often than any other side (21), and they have won the trophy in their last four appearances, with this their first appearance since a 2-1 win over Leicester in 2016 in José Mourinho’s first match in charge.
As for key players, Erling Haaland has looked in ominous form in pre-season, recently hitting a hat-trick against Chelsea in a 4-2 victory in Columbus. Haaland has a great record against United too, having been involved in nine goals in six appearances against the Red Devils, scoring six and assisting three. However, he’s yet to register a single goal involvement in four appearances at Wembley.
Phil Foden also enjoys a Manchester derby, having been involved in seven goals in his last six appearances against United, scoring six and assisting one. Only against Brighton (8) has Foden scored more club career goals than he has against United (6).
United have their own specialists in derbies, though. Marcus Rashford didn’t enjoy the best season last time out, but he has scored six goals against Manchester City in all competitions – only against Leicester (8) and Liverpool (7) has he scored more.
Kobbie Mainoo became a regular starter for England at Euro 2024, and the teenager will be looking to add another landmark to his already impressive legacy. Having scored against City in the FA Cup final, he could become just the second player to score in the FA Cup final and subsequent Community Shield match as a teenager, after Nicolas Anelka for Arsenal in 1998.
Manchester City vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
This will be the third time Manchester City and Manchester United have met in the Community Shield – United have won both previous matchups, 1-0 in 1956 and 3-2 in 2011.
City won both Premier League contests last season, winning 3-0 at Old Trafford and 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium.
However, United earned the win in May’s FA Cup final between the pair, with goals from Alejandro Garnacho and Mainoo securing the trophy for Ten Hag’s men, despite Jérémy Doku’s late goal back.
Recent Form
Given this is the first competitive game for both teams since May, there is little to go off in terms of form.
However, as mentioned, the last time they met was against each other at Wembley in the FA Cup final, which United won 2-1.
In terms of pre-season, it has been a mixed bag for both. Man City lost to Celtic and Milan, before drawing with Barcelona and beating Chelsea.
Man Utd lost to Rosenborg, Arsenal and Liverpool, but earned victories against Rangers and Real Betis.
Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction
Manchester City are predicted to win the 2024 English Community Shield on Saturday by the Opta supercomputer. They defeated rivals Manchester United inside 90 minutes in 61.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, with United winning just 19.8% of the time.
The match went to a penalty shootout in 18.9% of the pre-match sims, with no extra-time played in the Community Shield.
Manchester United can take some confidence from outwitting the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match prediction from the 2023-24 FA Cup final, however. Before kick-off in that game on 25 May, the supercomputer saw Ten Hag’s side win just 14.4% of the time inside 90 minutes, but they did just that with their 2-1 victory at Wembley.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend at Wembley between the two rivals, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Manchester City vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Manuel Akanji, Rúben Dias, Nathan Aké, Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Oscar Bobb, Jack Grealish, Erling Haaland.
Manchester United: André Onana, Diogo Dalot, Lisandro Martínez, Victor Lindelöf, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo, Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo, Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford.
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