The 2024 NFL season isn’t even a week old, and we already have a game that could go a long way in determining a division champ.
In the first Thursday Night Football game on Amazon Prime and CBS, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins meet in South Florida with the winner moving to 2-0 and taking the early lead atop the AFC East.
The victor will also gain the early edge in the head-to-head meetings, which could come in handy come playoff time on the road to the Super Bowl.
For the last few years, the Bills have owned the division, and a big reason for their supremacy has to do with their dominance of the Dolphins. Since 2020, Buffalo has gone 7-1 against Miami en route to winning the last four AFC East titles with the Dolphins stuck in second place each of the last two years.
The two met in the 2023 season finale in Miami in a de facto division title game and the Bills rallied in the fourth quarter to win 21-14 to capture the East crown and the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
With the loss, the Dolphins dropped to the conference’s sixth seed, and instead of hosting a playoff game in sunny South Florida, they were forced to travel to frigid Kansas City.
As you may recall, the Dolphins suffered frostbite in a 26-7 loss to the mighty Chiefs in the wild-card round, while the Bills beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 in front of their home fans in upstate New York.
Our NFL prediction model, however, believes Buffalo’s reign on the division will come to an end.
Prior to the start of this season, we calculated the Dolphins to win the AFC East with 10 victories. The model had the New York Jets finishing second and the Bills coming in third place with eight wins.
The sportsbooks opened with the Dolphins by a single point, but that number has since grown to 2.5 in some places. And in its Week 2 NFL picks, our supercomputer also lists Miami as the best bet in this matchup with a 58.5% chance of winning.
To come away with that victory, however, the Dolphins have to find a way to slow down Josh Allen – something they’ve been unable to do.
Allen has won 11 of the last 12 matchups with Miami including a 34-31 victory in a wild-card game following the 2022 season, with the Bills averaging 35.7 points and 409.9 yards in those victories. In last season’s two meetings, Allen completed 81% of his 63 pass attempts for 679 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions for a 130.1 QB rating.
Of his passes, 85.5% were considered well-thrown and only 1.61% were deemed pickable, compared to marks of 81.1 and 3.70 in his other 15 regular-season games.
Since 2018, Allen’s 36 touchdowns against the Dolphins are the most by any quarterback against any single opponent, and only Patrick Mahomes has more pass plays of 25 or more yards against any team with 35 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
With a 5-yard TD pass to Dawson Knox with just over 7 minutes remaining for the game’s final score in the 2023 season finale, Allen extended his consecutive games streak with multiple touchdowns against the Dolphins to 13 – every game he has played against them.
His streak of consecutive games with multiple TD passes against Miami is the longest streak by any player against a single opponent in NFL history.
Buffalo’s Key: Lean on Allen
A big reason why our projection model believes the Bills will be relinquishing the AFC East crown is because of turnover on Buffalo’s roster.
Heading into Sunday’s opener against the Arizona Cardinals, only one receiver – Khalil Shakir – had ever caught a pass from Allen, while the Bills defense had moved on from secondary mainstays Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer (who is now with the Dolphins) and 2023 sack leader Leonard Floyd.
The Bills still have Allen, though, and he made plays with his arm and legs on Sunday.
He threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more (who needs James Cook?) to rally the Bills from a 14-point deficit to a 34-28 victory to become the first player with multiple passing TDs and rushing TDs in a season opener since Troy Aikman in 1998. It was his fourth career game with at least two passing and two rushing TDs to match Steve Young for the most in NFL history.
Allen hurt his non-throwing left hand on a 6-yard touchdown run with just under 9 minutes to go, but coach Sean McDermott said Monday he was cleared to play despite the short turnaround.
Playing without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis for the first time since 2019, Allen threw passes to nine different players – the most for any team in NFL Week 1 – with rookie Keon Coleman coming away with team highs of four receptions for 51 yards.
Bills Player Projections
- Josh Allen: 24.6 of 36.5 for 274.8 yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.7 INTs; 43.1 rushing yards with 0.53 TDs
- James Cook: 13.4 rushes for 60.3 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
- Keon Coleman: 4.4 receptions for 48.6 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
- Khalil Shakir: 3.2 receptions, 51.5 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
- Dalton Kincaid: 4.2 receptions for 46.0 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Most importantly, Allen made good decisions with his throws and didn’t try to force anything.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid is widely considered to be Allen’s top target this year after finishing second behind Diggs on the Bills with 73 receptions last season, but he was thrown to just twice, catching one pass for 11 yards.
Of Allen’s 23 passes, he threw to an open receiver 91.3% of the time, and not one of his passes was considered pickable. When his receivers were covered, he tucked the ball and ran on six designed pass plays, averaging 5.5 yards on those scrambles.
Containing Allen when he decides to scramble has been a problem for the Dolphins over the years. In the past four regular-season meetings, he has scrambled 15 times for an average of 6.2 yards.
While Miami will need to be prepared for Allen to scramble, the defense’s priority will be in coverage after he has routinely shredded the secondary.
In last season’s two meetings, Jalen Ramsey was burned on all four of his targets for 89 yards, while Kader Kohou was burned on five of his seven targets for a total of 129 yards.
In 2023, Kohou had the eighth worst burn-allowed percentage at 55.2 and ninth worst open-allowed percentage at 76.1 among the 44 cornerbacks with a minimum of 400 plays in pass coverage. The NFL average for all corners last season was 50.1 and 69.8, respectively.
Kohou, Ramsey and Kendall Fuller all had coverage issues in Miami’s season opener, with Kohou being burned on all five of his targets, Fuller being burned on all three of his targets and Ramsey being burned on his lone target. It is a small sample size, but the Dolphins produced a Week 1-worst 94.7 open-allowed percentage
Miami has had no answer for Allen over the years, and if the defensive backs give Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid and the rest of Buffalo’s relatively unknown receivers plenty of space, the strong-armed quarterback will again pick them apart.
Miami’s Key: Play Fast
While facing Allen is never easy, the Dolphins have some factors playing into their favor.
First off, they get to stay home during the short week.
Not having to travel with the quick turnaround is obviously a good thing, and the Dolphins also had the benefit of playing in their own stadium this past Sunday. Last season, teams went 5-2 when hosting a Thursday night game after playing their previous game at home (excluding Thanksgiving). In the last 10 seasons, teams are 36-25 (.590) in such games.
The weather could also work out to their advantage with a forecast calling for temperatures in the upper 80s at kickoff with a chance of rain. While the Dolphins are used to playing in humid conditions, the Bills may be gassed trying to keep up with all Miami’s speed in the heat.
Most opponents have struggled to slow down the Dolphins when it’s steamy, as Miami has won its last eight home games when the temperature was in the 80s, averaging 35.4 points and 464.5 yards in those victories. The Bills, meanwhile, have lost their last two trips to Florida in games with the temperature warmer than 80 degrees.
Location and weather aside, the Dolphins also have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, led by Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane.
Like Buffalo in Week 1, Miami also stormed back from a 14-point, second-quarter deficit in its season opener, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-17 on Jason Sanders’ 52-yard field goal as time expired.
The Dolphins racked up exactly 400 yards of total offense, but the somewhat scary notion for future opponents is the offense wasn’t really in sync.
Miami ran a successful play just 36.9% of the time and the ground game never got going, averaging 3.24 yards on 25 rush attempts after averaging a league-leading 5.06 yards per rush in 2023.
Achane hurt his ankle and Raheem Mostert injured his chest, and although both played through the injuries against the Jaguars, Achane is questionable and Mostert has been ruled out.
Though their running backs are a bit banged up, the Dolphins still have one of the most dangerous wide receiver tandems in the NFL.
Hill overcame an extremely emotionally and scary situation before the season opener in which he was pulled out of his car by Miami-Dade County police officers during a traffic stop outside of Hard Rock Stadium hours before kickoff (the video has been trending) to catch seven passes for 130 yards.
His 80-yard touchdown reception with just over 2 minutes remaining in the third quarter started the comeback and was Miami’s 21st TD passing play of 30 or more yards since Hill joined the Dolphins in 2022 – the most by any team in that span.
Most Passing Touchdowns of 30+ Yards Since 2022
- Miami Dolphins (21)
- San Francisco 49ers (18)
- Las Vegas Raiders (16)
- Philadelphia Eagles (15)
- Cincinnati Bengals (14)
Waddle also reached 100 yards receiving, finishing with 109 on five receptions, making it the seventh time both him and Hill each had at least 100 receiving yards in a game – the most by any duo since 2022.
Tagovailoa picked up right where he left off after leading the NFL in passing yards in 2023, as his 338 passing yards were the most of any quarterback in Week 1. No QB had more pass plays of 20+ yards than Tagovailoa’s five and he averaged 9.14 yards on his 37 pass attempts.
But while Allen has been able to get up for the Dolphins, Tagovailoa hasn’t enjoyed the same success.
In last season’s two matchups, Tagovailoa passed for 455 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. In seven total meetings, he has only one 300-yard passing game while producing a 77.4 QB rating, compared to a 100.0 passer rating in his 47 other career regular-season games.
It’s been a similar story for Hill, who has not had more than 82 yards receiving in his four games against Buffalo with Miami, averaging 60.5 yards on 21 receptions with two TDs.
Dolphins Player Projections
- Tua Tagovailoa: 22.9 of 33.1 for 242.7 yards with 1.4 TDs and 0.6 INTs
- De’Von Achane: 13.0 rushes for 79.6 yards with 0.7 TDs; 4.5 catches for 30.0 yards
- Tyreek Hill: 7.2 receptions for 94.4 yards with 0.6 touchdowns
- Jaylen Waddle: 4.3 receptions, 58.6 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
Hill and Waddle, however, will be lining up against secondary that is still working on its chemistry after breaking in two new starting safeties against the Cardinals in Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp.
The secondary will once again feature a new starter after nickel cornerback Taron Johnson played just seven snaps in the opener before exiting with an injured right forearm. Backup Cam Lewis entered after Johnson got hurt and was burned on three of the five times he was targeted.
The opportunity is there for Miami to take advantage of some mismatches in the secondary and pick up a crucial division TNF win over a Buffalo team that has had its number over the past few seasons.
And although Allen and the Bills have broken the hearts of Dolphins fans in this one-sided rivalry over the past few seasons, Miami coach Mike McDaniel has reason to believe things could be changing.
“I think for this team, we know the stakes of it,” McDaniel said during his Monday press conference. “But, at the same time I don’t think anybody is thinking about the Buffalo Bills as anything but the team that’s won the division for however many years in a row that has had very successful seasons the last handful of previous ones. And know that collectively, they will play hard, determined, physical football.
“But beyond that, I think these are two new teams playing against each other.”
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