Aaron Rodgers and the Jets play their third game in 11 days Thursday night when they face the visiting Patriots. We reveal our keys to the game, player projections and all our Jets vs. Patriots predictions.
New York Jets fans have been waiting more than a year to see their quarterback savior take the field at MetLife Stadium.
It’s been significantly longer since Jets fans have seen their team defeat the New England Patriots at their home field.
Back in the Meadowlands for the first time since his 2023 season-ending injury, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will play their third game in 11 days on Thursday Night Football when they face the rival Patriots in an AFC East matchup on Prime Video.
After Rodgers’ first season with New York was wiped out due to a ruptured left Achilles tendon sustained on the team’s third official play from scrimmage, the Jets haven’t quite taken flight offensively like many expected they would under the four-time NFL MVP.
He threw for 167 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a season-opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football and followed that up with 176 yards passing with two TDs and no picks Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.
Not exactly passing numbers you’d expect to see from someone who will one day be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but the good news for the Jets and the team’s fanbase is they did secure their first win of the NFL season in Week 2.
And Rodgers stepped up with the game on the line. He went 5 for 5 on the winning drive that included a 26-yard pass to Garrett Wilson and a 19-yard throw to Mike Williams to set up rookie Braelon Allen’s 20-yard touchdown run with 4:31 left for the final score in the 24-17 victory.
Although five AFC teams are 2-0 with a better record than the Jets, our model projects that New York has a 72.0% chance of reaching the playoffs (as of Tuesday) – the third-highest percentage among AFC teams behind the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (92.8%) and Houston Texans (80.5%).
While Jets fans no doubt have their sights set on the playoffs and maybe even the Super Bowl if everything comes together, they’d first like to see their team knock off the Patriots at MetLife Stadium.
With a short week to prepare, New York seeks its first win over New England in the Meadowlands since a 26-20 overtime win in Week 16 of the 2015 season, when current Amazon Prime analyst Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for three touchdowns to best Tom Brady.
Only one team has a longer active winning road streak against a single opponent, and that’s the Chiefs with a 10-gamer against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Longest Active Road Win Streak vs. Any Opponent
- 10 – Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (2014-)
- 8 – New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (2016-)
- 6 – Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1998-)
- 6 – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions (1986-)
- 6 – Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2018-)
- 6 – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders (2018-)
Sportsbooks have the Jets favored by 6.0 points (as of Wednesday), and our supercomputer agrees that the Jets are the best bets to end the Patriots’ reign in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with a 70.2% chance of winning this matchup.
This is also tied for the most entertaining game on the NFL Week 3 slate with a SmartRating of 72. The excitement model is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (dull), 40-64 (OK), 65-84 (good), 85-100 (great).
The Jets snapped an overall 15-game losing streak to the Patriots in the last matchup between these teams, winning 17-3 in the 2023 season finale. In that meeting between middling quarterbacks, New York’s Trevor Siemian threw for 70 yards on 20 attempts while the Jets defense sacked Bailey Zappe seven times.
New York gained 254 total yards in that one, which is nearly what it has totaled in its first two games of this season – 266 against the 49ers and 265 against the Titans. Despite their modest yard totals, the Jets have been more efficient under Rodgers, which doesn’t take much after the mess they went through at QB in 2023.
Although his passing yards average of 171.5 ranks 25th, his QB rating of 92.2 ranks 14th and is also 21.7 points higher than New York’s league-worst 70.5 passer rating in 2023.
This season, the Jets are running successful pass plays 48.5% of the time – the NFL’s third-highest rate – after the team brought up the rear in 2023 at 32.1%.
It might be hard to tell, but the offense is moving in the right direction.
New York’s Key: Dink and Dunk
The offense may not be flying high like some envisioned, but they haven’t been the Carolina Panthers either.
They’re doing a good job of taking what the opposing defenses are giving them. Rodgers isn’t airing it out downfield, instead throwing accurate passes underneath.
While his passes are averaging just 5.74 air yards – down from 8.08 in his final season in Green Bay in 2022 and the fourth-lowest rate among the 32 QBs with at least 20 pass attempts in 2024 – we’ve charted his passes as having a catchability rating of 8.20 – ninth in the league.
Wilson, Williams, Allen Lazard and the rest of the Jets receivers are getting open 77.6% of the time – slightly below league average at 77.9 – and Rogers isn’t forcing the ball if his receivers are covered. His pickable pass rate of 2.00 ranks seventh among qualifiers.
One thing Rodgers is doing to generate offense is checking down and throwing to someone who isn’t his first option and letting them pick up the yards.
Check-Down Percentage to WRs (Min. 20 Attempts)
- 20.0% – Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 18.0% – Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
- 15.7% – Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
- 14.9% – Garner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders
- 14.8% – Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Rodgers’ check-down rate is nearly twice as much as in his last season with the Packers, when he threw to a check-down receiver on 10.8% of all passes.
He’s completed 12 throws to running back Breece Hall – the most receptions by any Jet – and Hall has caught those 12 balls a total of 4 yards from the line of scrimmage. Hall has then churned out 87 yards after the catch – fifth most by a running back this season.
Against the Titans with the ball at the 12-yard line, Rodgers found Allen on a short dump off behind the line of scrimmage and the 20-year-old backup RB then turned and scampered into the end zone for his first touchdown.
Jets Player Projections (as of Tuesday)
- Aaron Rodgers: 23.6 of 36.5 for 250.3 yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.6 INTs
- Breece Hall: 15.8 rushes for 88.3 yards with 0.6 TDs; 5.9 receptions for 53.9 yards
- Garrett Wilson: 6.0 receptions for 64.2 yards with 0.5 touchdowns
- Allen Lazard: 2.9 receptions, 36.6 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
- Mike Williams: 3.1 receptions for 34.7 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Allen and Hall, who also caught a pass from Rodgers last week, are emerging as quite the dynamic duo in the New York backfield.
The two combined for 95 yards rushing at Tennessee, and Hall has been picking up the tough yards, with an average of 2.63 coming after contact – the fourth-highest rate among the 31 running backs with at least 20 carries.
The third-year pro has been doing a bit of everything for the Jets, taking some of the pressure off the 40-year-old Rodgers.
With New York averaging 3.3 yards per pass play with Siemian at quarterback in the last meeting with the Patriots, Hall carried the Jets to victory, rushing for a career-high 178 yards.
Since his 2022 rookie season, the Jets are 9-1 in games when Hall rushes for at least 60 yards, compared to going 4-12 when he fails to reach that mark.
Getting the ball in Hall’s hands and taking the target off Rodgers’ back will likely be the focus of New York’s offense in this one and should produce another win. However, it won’t be easy against an underdog Patriots team that ranks seventh in defensive EVE rankings.
New England’s Key: Run the Football
Few figured New England would be much of an offensive machine this season, but it’s actually found some success moving the ball.
The Patriots have surprisingly compiled 69 more total yards of offense than the Jets, gaining 290 in their stunning 16-10 season-opening win over the Cincinnati Bengals and 310 in last Sunday’s 23-20 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
And a majority of their offensive yards have come on the ground.
After rushing for 170 yards in Week 1, they rushed for 185 last week with Antonio Gibson gaining 96 yards on just 11 carries and Rhamondre Stevenson running for 81 yards on 21 attempts.
With 201 rushing yards on the season, Stevenson joins Corey Dillon as the only Patriots running back to have eclipsed 200 yards rushing through two games. (Dillon had 244 yards after Week 2 of the 2004 season.)
It’s no secret what the Patriots want to do when they have the ball. They’re calling running plays 57.7% of the time – the NFL’s fifth-highest rate – and they’re not interested in taking downfield shots with Jacoby Brissett, whose average of 5.29 yards per pass attempt is the sixth lowest among quarterbacks.
The Jets, who rank 23rd in the NFL in defensive EVE so far, have some injury concerns in their secondary with cornerbacks Michael Carter (ankle) and D.J. Reed (knee) both banged up. But Sauce Gardner is capable of neutralizing New England’s leading wide receivers of K.J. Osborn, Ja’Lynn Polk and Tyquan Thornton, who have combined for a grand total of 73 receiving yards on nine receptions in two games.
Patriots Player Projections (as of Tuesday)
- Jacoby Brissett: 19.5 of 30.0 for 217.4 yards with 0.8 TDs and 0.6 INTs
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 17.8 rushes for 67.8 yards with 0.4 TDs
- Demario Douglas: 2.5 receptions for 33.1 yards with 0.1 touchdowns
- Ja’Lynn Polk: 2.1 receptions for 25.3 yards with 0.1 touchdowns
- Hunter Henry: 4.7 receptions for 65.0 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Not that they want to throw, but an injury to New England’s offensive line will make things even more difficult for Brissett when the Patriots do find themselves in passing situations.
Starting left tackle Vederian Lowe injured his knee on New England’s final offensive play in regulation against Seattle and didn’t return for overtime, when the Patriots went three-and-out on their lone possession.
If Lowe can’t play, the Patriots will already be starting their third left tackle in as many games, which typically isn’t a recipe for success.
Chuks Okorafor started the opener after signing a one-year, $4 million contract with the Patriots in the offseason, but he was placed on the Exempt/Left Squad list the day before their game against the Seahawks after reportedly leaving the team to mull retirement. According to those reports, he was unhappy with his playing time after being replaced by Lowe in the opener.
Backup right tackle Caedan Wallace will likely shift to the left side, leaving a pair of players recently claimed off waivers in Demontrey Jacobs and Zach Thomas as the only other tackles on New England’s roster.
For the record, Lowe had struggled mightily in his limited time at left tackle – his pressure-allowed rate of 28.6 is the second worst among the 33 left tackles with a minimum of 20 plays in pass protection – but the Patriots coaching staff must think highly enough of him to bench Okorafor in his favor.
New England’s patchwork offensive line has been vulnerable to the pass rush and New York will look to make Brissett as uncomfortable as possible in the pocket when he does drop back.
Although New York lost an important part of its pass rush with Pro Bowl edge rusher Jermaine Johnson tearing his right Achilles tendon in the third quarter Sunday, the Jets are still equipped to present problems for the depleted Patriots offensive line.
New York’s Will McDonald stepped up against the Titans, sacking Will Levis three times and fellow defensive end Solomon Thomas notched his first sack of the season.
The Jets have already shown a propensity for getting to the quarterback and that spells trouble for the Patriots.
Highest Sack Rate – 2024
- 13.8% – Tennessee Texans
- 12.4% – Minnesota Vikings
- 12.3% – Arizona Cardinals
- 10.9% – New York Jets
- 10.3% – Dallas Cowboys
Considering the state of their offensive line coupled with pressure New York’s defensive front can generate – and not to mention the limitations of Brissett – the Patriots will be doing whatever they can to keep the ball on the ground – and Stevenson and Gibson should be able to find some room to run against New England.
The Jets allowed the undrafted Jordan Mason to do his best Christian McCaffrey impersonation in the season opener, with the unheralded running back gashing the New York defense for 147 yards rushing with five carries going for 10 or more yards.
This past Sunday, the Titans gained 130 yards on the ground, bringing the season total for rush yards allowed by the Jets to 310. It’s only the second time in the last 20 seasons they’ve permitted more than 300 rushing yards in their first two games.
Only three running backs – J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara and Mason – have more runs of 10+ yards than Stevenson’s six, and the Jets have been prone to a surrendering a big play on the ground.
Percentage of 10+ Yard Rushing Plays Allowed
- 22.4% – Philadelphia Eagles
- 21.3% – New York Giants
- 17.9% – Green Bay Packers
- 16.9% – Buffalo Bills
- 16.7% – New York Jets
- 16.7% – Chicago Bears
In their last trip to the Meadowlands to face the Jets in Week 3 of 2023, the Pats rushed the ball a season-high 40 times for 157 yards on their way to grinding out a 15-10 win.
Expect a similar game plan this time around. The Patriots will be relying heavily on the ground game – and with plenty of good reasons – as they look for a ninth straight road win in this series to extend the misery of Jets fans.
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