We’re bringing you some overreactions and the top data-driven Week 2 fantasy football projections available using several of our AI-powered models.
The most fun time in the entire NFL calendar might just be the couple days between Monday Night Football in Week 1 and Thursday Night Football in Week 2.
Why? Because you can convince yourself of almost anything. Because the nature of small, one-game samples is to overreact to everything you see.
And who doesn’t love doing that?
So, in the spirit of fun, and along with the rest of the football world, here are four fantasy football overreactions that also maybe, just maybe, have the tiniest hint of being a prediction.
They are far from sure things, but we’re going to make the case why each of these could potentially come true based on what we saw in Week 1.
Overreaction No. 1: Cooper Kupp is about to have a better season than his 2021 season, when he won the triple crown.
If you’ve been following our fantasy coverage over the last four years, you will know that Cooper Kupp has been an absolute favorite of the model. Our model has been consistently higher on him than the industry for years, both season long, and even weekly (he’s our WR2 this week and the industry’s WR4).
Bu there’s two things you need to know about this overreaction. First, this almost certainly isn’t going to happen. Triple crowns – leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns – are exceedingly rare.
Kupp in 2021, Sterling Sharpe in 1992 (Sharpe may have a case as the best player in NFL history to not be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame), and Jerry Rice in 1990 are the only players to win outright triple crowns since 1960.
Second, he absolutely blew everyone out of the water in receptions (145) and receiving yards (1,947) that season and he did it on the strength of a league-high 191 targets – 22 more than the next closest player.
You know what he didn’t do that season? Have a single game with more than 15 targets or any game with more than 13 receptions. Meanwhile, last Sunday night against the Detroit Lions, Kupp had 14 receptions and an utterly ridiculous 21 targets.
To put that in perspective, New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence only had 21 pass attempts in their Week 1 performances.
That’s 21, to all their teammates.
The other thing that happened in 2021? Robert Woods got hurt midseason and didn’t play after Week 9. Sound familiar? Puka Nacua is already on the IR for the Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford has already shown that he has no trouble focusing on one receiver for a game or season (see, Kupp or before him, Calvin Johnson).
If he stays healthy, Kupp will threaten Michael Thomas’ single-season receptions record and a 2,000-yard season. And hopefully, he’ll do it while on your fantasy team.
Overreaction No. 2: Jayden Daniels is going to finish the season as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Rushing quarterbacks are the ultimate fantasy football cheat code. Daniels’ Week 1 debut for the Washington Commanders was fine. He finished with 184 passing yards, no passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He also finished the week as the QB3.
How? How about a rushing line of 16-88-2? That is 20.8 fantasy points accumulated on the ground alone. The bet here is that the Commanders will be trailing a lot this season, just like they were last week against Baker Mayfield (QB2 on the week) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is conducive to Daniels dropping back in the passing game, facing a softer coverage from the defense, and scrambling all over the place.
He won’t score two rushing touchdowns every week, but 10 fantasy points per game on the ground seems more than reasonable. Last year’s QB5 averaged 19.4 points per game. Can Daniels average 10 points through the air and on the ground?
If Week 1 is any indication, you should try to trade for him before he blossoms into an elite QB option each week.
Overreaction No. 3: This was supposed to be a renaissance year for tight ends. Instead, it’ll be the worst tight end year in over a decade.
At least three tight ends have scored 200 PPR points going back to 2013 except for in the wacky 2020 Covid season. It’s been done 45 times since 2013. Basically, four tight ends per season cross that 200-point threshold.
To score 200 points, you need to average just a hair under 12 points per game. Want to guess how many tight ends hit that mark in Week 1? The correct answer is two. Those two players? The second tight end for the Baltimore Ravens (yes, Isaiah Likely is really good, but did any fantasy managers start him in Week 1?), and the third tight end for the New Orleans Saints – Foster Moreau.
The top-five tight ends in average draft position (ADP) entering this season were the Kansas City Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, Detroit Lions’ Sam LaPorta, Ravens’ Mark Andrews, Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBride and Buffalo Bills’ Dalton Kincaid. Those five in Week 1 combined – COMBINED – for 15 catches, 134 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
Kelce has openly admitted he coasts in the regular season, doing what he can to stay healthy until the playoffs. LaPorta is at best the second, at worst the fourth, receiving option in an offense that is built on running the ball. Andrews was usurped by Likely. McBride has three career games with more than 90 receiving yards and he has four total touchdowns. Kincaid? He’s not even listed as the starting tight end on his own team, that would be Dawson Knox.
In a word… yikes. Let’s hope things get better, but Week 1 was not pleasant for any fantasy manager at the tight end position. Unless you started Likely, of course.
Overreaction No. 4: The Dallas Cowboys defense will once again finish as the league’s top fantasy defense.
This shouldn’t be an overreaction. In fact, the Cowboys finishing as a top-two unit was one of our overreactions from Week 1 last season, and they went ahead and finished the year as the top fantasy defense. It was their third straight year as a top-two defense.
The case is simple. They have an elite player in Micah Parsons that spearheads everything, an offense that scores a lot of points and puts the defense in position to attack the quarterback, and players on the backend that aggressively hunt the ball.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Cowboys lead the NFL in interceptions (61 – seven more than the next closest team), interceptions returned for a touchdown (10), sacks (147 – tied with the Miami Dolphins) and forced fumbles (48). The Cowboys in Week 1? Six sacks, two interceptions, a forced fumble, and for good measure, a punt return for a touchdown.
That’ll do.
Bonus Overreaction: That throw from Anthony Richardson is the craziest throw in NFL history. I mean, cmon!
Week 2 Yays
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Justin Fields, QB (PIT) vs DEN (ECR: 16, Our Rank: QB8, Projected Points: 18.23)
Everything we said for Daniels in our overreaction column applies directly to Fields. No one will confuse Fields for being an expert passer, but that hasn’t mattered one bit when it comes to his fantasy viability.
Fields played 28 games from 2022-23. He averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Here’s the entire list of quarterbacks to outscore Fields on a per-game basis over the last two seasons: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.
Now starting his second straight game for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Fields is second in our model’s projected rushing yards by a quarterback. Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith just had 30 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in Week 1. Fields has a great chance of bettering those numbers.
He’s a top-10 QB this week for the model.
De’Von Achane, RB (MIA) vs BUF (ECR: 12, Our Rank: RB3, PP: 20.57)
There might not be a more exciting player in the NFL than Achane. When he gets the ball, it feels as though he’s one missed tackle away from scoring a touchdown.
He averaged a preposterous 7.8 yards per carry in 2023, which if he had enough rushes to qualify, would have been only the second player this century to average more than 6.3 yards per carry.
That’s what made his Week 1 performance so exciting. He was awful on the ground. Only 24 rushing yards on 10 carries was by far his most inefficient performance running the ball in his young career. But he scored a touchdown, and most importantly, he had seven receptions for 76 yards. If that is a sign of his passing game contributions to come, combined with his status as the top dog in the Miami Dolphins backfield, Achane is a potential fantasy game-breaker.
Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out this week. Achane is also dealing with an ankle injury that makes his status for Thursday night’s game questionable, but it seems like he’s going to play, and if he does, he’s an elite option.
Jordan Mason, RB (SF) vs MIN (ECR: 25, Our Rank: RB4, PP: 19.03)
Last year, Puka Nacua had 15 targets in Week 1 and while most fantasy managers were excited to add him, no one thought his performance would be sustainable.
He responded with 20 targets, 15 receptions and 147 receiving yards in Week 2, well on his way to finishing the season as the WR4.
Why do we bring that up? Don’t be afraid to let what you see in Week 1 dictate what you do in Week 2. Mason had the second-most carries (28) of any player in Week 1. He had the second most rushing yards (147).
Oh, and the other two running backs on the San Francisco 49ers combined for zero carries.
With Christian McCaffrey likely to be sidelined again this week against the Minnesota Vikings, Mason is in line to receive a large volume of work in a rushing-friendly Kyle Shanahan offense.
You should start him with confidence.
Demarcus Robinson, WR (LAR) vs ARI (ECR: 50, Our Rank: WR26, PP: 12.04)
Robinson is a well-traveled veteran, having the most productive stretch of play in his career. In his last six regular season games, he’s averaging 4.2 receptions and 60.2 receiving yards and has scored four touchdowns during that stretch.
With Nacua on the IR for at least four weeks, it isn’t just Kupp that might benefit. From Weeks 13 to 17 last week (before sitting out in Week 18 as the Rams rested most of their regulars), Robinson was quietly the WR12, averaging 15.4 PPR points per game.
He doesn’t need to do any more than that to significantly outperform his ECR and the model is confident that he will do just that.
Especially in deeper leagues, Robinson is a strong Flex play. He might even still be available to pick up on the waiver wire as he is still only rostered in 21% of Yahoo leagues.
Week 2 Nays
Jared Goff, QB (DET) vs TB (ECR: 9, Our Rank: QB15: PP: 15.89)
If you’re sensing a theme as it pertains to quarterbacks, you’d be correct. Rushing is paramount to success at the position. Well, in 49 career games with the Lions, Goff has exactly one game with more than 15 rushing yards and only two rushing touchdowns.
Meanwhile, since the start of the 2023 season, the Lions have only played one game in which they’ve rushed the ball fewer than 22 times. On average, it’s 30 times per game.
Goff is sixth in projected completions and eighth in projected passing touchdowns. He’s fifth in fewest projected interceptions.
The model expects Goff to have a solid game, but without any rushing, he’s merely a QB2 as opposed to a low-end QB1.
Derrick Henry, RB (BAL) vs LV (ECR: 10, Our Rank: RB19, PP: 14.83)
There was so much widespread optimism that the marriage between Henry and the Baltimore Ravens could produce one more elite RB1-type season from Henry that the weaknesses were easy to overlook. And they all came true in Week 1.
Really, just two main weaknesses. For starters, this offense orbits around Lamar Jackson. When Lamar has the ball in his hands, good things happen for the Ravens. And in Week 1, he had 57 total opportunities (41 passes, 16 rushes). Henry, on the other hand, had just 13 opportunities.
Which brings us to the second weakness. Every one of his touches was a rushing attempt. Justice Hill finished the game with six receptions. Henry did get two targets, but didn’t convert either of them into a reception.
All of which means, that despite scoring a touchdown in Week 1, Henry finished with a pedestrian 10.6 PPR points – good for a finish as the RB31. If you have him, it’ll be tough not to play him, but your expectations should be tempered.
He’s more of an RB2 until he either receives a few more passing game opportunities or his volume of carries significantly increases.
Jaylen Waddle, WR (MIA) vs BUF (ECR: 11, Our Rank: WR25, PP: 12.13)
If Kupp has been a model favorite over the years, Waddle falls into the type of receiver category that the model has always struggled with. Players who are so reliant on big plays to carry their fantasy value are tough to rank and Waddle is just that.
The good news for Waddle’s fantasy managers is that he delivered that play in Week 1. His 63-yard reception was the fourth longest of the week and it contributed to his 109-yard day.
The bad news? If he doesn’t come down with that play this week against the Bills, he might produce a day that looks a lot like four receptions for 46 yards, which would have been his stat line in Week 1 without that single play.
By the way, that hypothetical stat line I just tossed out just happens to be the exact game that Waddle produced last year against the Bills in Week 4.
In an offense in which he’s third in the pecking order behind Tyreek Hill and Achane, there’s too much uncertainty for the model to rate Waddle as a borderline WR1.
Chris Olave, WR (NO) vs DAL (ECR: 22, Our Rank: WR30, PP: 11.75)
The New Orleans Saints scored 47 points in Week 1. That is a dream for fantasy managers.
It stands to reason that if an offense scores that many points, its best players have to be prominently involved. Instead, five Saints players had more receiving yards than Olave last week.
Unfortunately for Saints fans, and Olave’s fantasy managers, they aren’t playing the Carolina Panthers again this week. They’re playing the aforementioned Cowboys defense and with Trevon Diggs expected to line up against Olave quite a bit, another slow day could be in store for the former Ohio State star.
The model views him as merely a Flex play this week.
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