We’re digging into the NFL Week 1 data and pinpointing where it might be telling a different story than the headlines.
If you took a chance on Jayden Daniels in your fantasy draft, you were no doubt pleased with his 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut.
It was win No. 1 for the No. 1 overall pick when Caleb Williams’ Chicago Bears came back from 17-points down to beat the Tennessee Titans. And Bo Nix scored his first TD to get the Denver Broncos within striking distance of the Seattle Seahawks in the final three minutes.
Yep, there were certainly some highlight-reel moments from the rookie starting quarterbacks on Sunday. However, a closer look at the data shows it was a tougher opener for all three than the results may have indicated.
Williams (72.4%), Nix (76.2%) and Daniels (75.0%) finished with well-thrown percentages well below the league average of 79.9% from Thursday to Sunday. But what’s even more revealing is that Nix (6.10) and Daniels (5.42) were also way under the NFL average of 7.34 air yards per attempt.
Obviously, the deeper the throw, the more difficult it is to put it on the money. Deshaun Watson, Williams, Jordan Love, Jacoby Brissett, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young may have had worse well-thrown percentages than Daniels, but each of them averaged at least 7.0 air yards per attempt.
Nix and Daniels were not only inaccurate, but they were inaccurate on short throws. Of the QBs who averaged less than 6.5 air yards per attempts in Week 1 so far, only Nix, Daniels and Daniel Jones (76.3%) had well-thrown rates under 81.0%.
Nix was also one of only five quarterbacks to throw three or more pickable passes, along with Jalen Hurts (four), Matthew Stafford (three), Watson (three) and Jones (three).
That’s what made Derek Carr’s season opener so impressive. The veteran signal caller was an efficient 19 of 23 for 200 yards and three touchdowns in the New Orleans Saints’ 47-10 rout of the Carolina Panthers.
But he also had a well-thrown percentage of 90.9 on 9.27 air yards per attempt. Carr is the only QB in Week 1 heading into Monday Night Football to eclipse a 90.0% well-throw rate while averaging more than 8.0 air yards. (Sam Darnold posted a 95.8 well-thrown percentage on 7.79 air yards per toss.)
Since 2016 when we first started charting well-thrown rate, Geno Smith is the only QB to finish a season with an 87.0 or better well-thrown percentage and 8.0+ air yards per attempt (min. 250 attempts) when he had 87.1 and 8.14, respectively, in 2022.
Style Over Substance
Social media timelines were filled with Anthony Richardson’s big plays on Sunday. He threw a 60-yard bomb for a touchdown, a 51-yard strike for another score, a 57-yard pass to Alec Pierce (three catches, 125 yards, TD) and later ran one in from 3-yards out.
But was it all style and no substance? Richardson, in his first game from an injury that cost him most of last season, wasn’t shy about taking his shots with a league-high 16.0 air yards per attempt.
That figures to explain some of his 68.4% well-thrown rate that is second-to-last in the NFL so far, ahead of only Young’s 66.7 mark (11.81 air yards per attempt). However, Richardson also targeted an open receiver an NFL-worst 42.1% of the time on Sunday.
Whether it was because his receivers weren’t getting open or because he was making the wrong decisions, Richardson was throwing to pass catchers who, most of the time, weren’t open.
As a point of comparison, Lawrence had an open target percentage of 94.7, which actually makes his 68.4 well-thrown percentage look much worse.
Taking the Top off
Sure, Cooper Kupp had the big numbers of the weekend with 14 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown in the Los Angeles Rams’ overtime loss at Detroit on Sunday night.
But he also averaged only 5.67 burn yards (league average 10.0) across his 21 targets with an average depth of target of just 8.7 yards (NFL average 10.4).
Of course, we’re only being half serious about criticizing Kupp’s performance. Although, it’s one thing to get open on short crossing routes, slants, pick plays or beating a linebacker out of the slot. It’s a whole another thing to beat a defense down the field for big plays.
Out of the 18 pass catchers who have been targeted at least four times in Week 1 with a depth of target of at least 13 yards, Jayden Reed (four catches, 138 yards, TD) and Tyler Lockett (six catches, 77 yards) are the only ones to post 100% open rates (plays in which the receiver is deemed open when targeted).
Reed’s depth of target on Sunday was 17.5 yards – the fifth-highest average of Week 1 so far. He has easily posted the most burn yards per target (28.03) and big-play percentage (86.7). Lockett had the highest burn percentage (85.7) with a 13.1 average depth of target.
A burn is when a receiver “wins” his matchup on a play in which he’s targeted, regardless of whether the pass was catchable or not.
Something out of Nothing
J.K. Dobbins had a Chargers debut to remember with 10 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown in a 22-10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Consider that Dobbins averaged an NFL-high 10.1 yards before contact in Sunday’s win – meaning that most of the time, he wasn’t interacting with a defender until he was in the defensive backfield.
Dobbins also averaged 3.40 yards after contact – second behind only Aaron Jones’ 3.64 mark, so he wasn’t just relying on great play calling or the offensive line to rack up his numbers.
On the flip side, who made the most of their bad situation in Week 1? For this, we’re looking at the running backs who averaged the most yards after contact despite averaging less than 2.0 yards before contact (so they faced a potential tackler almost immediately).
Devin Singletary had a disappointing first game with New York Giants as he rushed 10 times for 37 yards in a 28-6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but he made the most of his chances by averaging more than 2.6 yards after contact – the most in the league among those with at least 10 carries in Week 1.
To further the point, he also ranks third so far in forced missed or broken tackles per touch (.357) behind only Rhamondre Stevenson (.500) and Jones (.375).
Jaleel McLaughlin of the Denver Broncos managed 27 yards on 10 carries despite averaging less than 1 yard before interacting with a defender on his carries. He owns the second-largest differential between yards after contact and yards before contact, and ranks sixth in forced missed or broken tackles per touch (.333).
Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL, fantasy football and college football coverage. And follow us on X, Instagram and Threads for more!