We’re breaking down some of the biggest movers in our top 25 and revealing our TRACR projection model’s college football predictions for Week 7’s biggest matchups.
Oregon at Washington
Despite the return of Bo Nix under center, the Oregon Ducks were not viewed as a serious contender when the initial preseason polls were released.
Sure, they were ranked a not-too-shabby 15th in the NCAA Football AP preseason poll, but that was fourth among Pac-12 teams with reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams and No. 6 Southern California, Michael Penix Jr. and No. 10 Washington, and No. 14 Utah all higher in the poll.
There were defensive question marks entering the season after Oregon dropped two of its last three regular-season games in 2022 before beating North Carolina 28-27 in a Holiday Bowl thriller. However, the Ducks seem to have improved greatly on that side of the ball, allowing 10 points or less in fourth of their five games so far this season.
They also rank 10th in defensive TRACR heading into Week 7.
As a result, Oregon has won its five games by an average of 39.8 points – including 42-6 wins over then-No. 19 Colorado and Stanford (its only close game was a 38-30 victory at Texas Tech in Week 2) – and has moved up to No. 8 in this week’s AP Top 25.
Washington hasn’t risen quite as much during its 5-0 start, inching from No. 10 in the preseason to seventh after opening the conference with wins over California (59-32) and Arizona (31-24).
But in terms of our TRACR rankings, Saturday’s annual Cascade Clash represents a matchup between two of the teams that have jumped the most in relation to their preseason ratings. Oregon has a nation-best TRACR differential of plus-27.3 since the preseason, while Washington has the third highest with a 23.8 increase.
LARGEST INCREASE IN TRACR SINCE THE PRESEASON
- Oregon Ducks (27.3)
- Texas State (26.4)
- Washington Huskies (23.8)
- Louisville Cardinals (23.5)
- Duke Blue Devils (23.5)
- North Carolina Tar Heels (22.3)
- Toledo Rockets (20.2)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (19.4)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks (17.4)
- Miami (FL) Hurricanes (17.4)
TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency metric that evaluates how well a team performs based on who it plays. The model, which is trained on over 10 years of data, is based on an EPA (expected points added) calculation weighed by who teams play.
A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team in the FBS. The rankings, along with teams’ projected records, probability of running the table and chances of becoming a bowl-eligible team, are being updated throughout the season on our TRACR college football rankings page.
It’s important to note that some of the drastic increases could be the result of playing lesser nonconference opponents early in the season, while others might be just an underestimation of the team’s true talent (Texas State may be an example). However, it is likely that these teams will experience a regression as they move on to play tougher foes.
Washington had dropped 15 of the previous 17 meetings with the Ducks dating back to 2004 before Peyton Henry’s 43-yard field goal with 51 seconds left gave the Huskies a 37-34 victory at Oregon in Week 11 of last season. It was a crushing blow to an Oregon team that rode an eight-game winning streak into the Border War.
Penix, who played his first four years at Indiana, threw for 408 yards and two touchdowns – including a 62-yard strike to Taj Davis that tied the game with 3.07 remaining. He leads the nation with 399.8 yards per game.
Nix was 19-of-28 passing for 279 yards and three total scores (one on the ground). He ranks 14th in the nation in passing yards per game (291.8) this season and only Williams has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio (22-to-1) than his 15-to-1 output so far.
It all adds up to a matchup between the two best offenses in the country, per TRACR. Yep, even better than Williams’ Trojans. Oregon has a nation-best 32.3 offensive TRACR, Washington ranks second at 31.3 and USC is third at 30.7.
2023 OFFENSIVE TRACR LEADERS
- Oregon Ducks (32.3)
- Washington Huskies (31.3)
- USC Trojans (30.7)
- LSU Tigers (30.0)
- Michigan Wolverines (27.1)
- Oklahoma Sooners (26.7)
- Florida State Seminoles (26.2)
- Oregon State Beavers (25.3)
- North Carolina Tar Heels (23.0)
- Ole Miss Rebels (22.8)
Washington, which is No. 3 in our TRACR rankings, may be sportsbooks’ favorite at around minus-3.0, but our model gives the second-ranked Ducks a 54.6% chance of beating the Huskies. This matchup of College Football Playoff hopefuls is the top-rated game on the college slate, according to SmartRatings.
SmartRatings is an AI-based platform that calculates excitement ratings based on six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game) and 85-100 (Great Game).
MOST EXCITING WEEK 7 GAMES, PER SMARTRATINGS
- 1. Oregon at Washington (83)
- 2. USC at Notre Dame (79)
- T-3. Miami (FL) at North Carolina (70)
- T-3. Auburn at LSU (70)
- T-3. UCLA at Oregon State (70)
Miami (FL) at North Carolina
Two others among the 10 biggest movers since the preseason are the also meet on Saturday night when Miami (FL) tries to overcome a brutal 23-20 last-second loss to Georgia Tech against North Carolina at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill.
The Hurricanes, who dropped from eighth to 11th in TRACR, have a +17.4 TRACR differential since Aug. 24, while North Carolina has the sixth-highest differential at +22.3. After a couple of early scares against South Carolina and Appalachian State, the Tar Heels have won their last three over Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Syracuse.
They moved up from 19th to seventh in TRACR after Drake Maye threw for 442 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-7 win over the Orange.
Maye and the Tar Heels have the nation’s ninth-best offense, per TRACR, while Miami ranks 12th. North Carolina is also fifth in defensive TRACR against the pass, which is a good sign heading into a matchup with Miami’s Xavier Restrepo. The fourth-year wideout had 12 receptions for 123 yards against the Yellow Jackets and he’s totaled 31 catches for 410 yards and two TDs in his last four games.
Our model gives UNC (5-0) a slight edge on their home turf with a 54.6% chance of adding to Mario Cristobal’s woes at Miami (4-1) and winning its fifth in a row in this series.
So which teams are the best bets? How do they compare to the expert’s college football picks? Here are the rest of our model’s win probabilities for all the TRACR top 25 football games.
Week 7 College Football Predictions
TRACR No. 1 Michigan 99.7% over No. 115 Indiana
No. 2 Oregon 54.6% over No. 3 Washington
No. 4 Oklahoma is idle
No. 5 USC 69.3% over No. 18 Notre Dame
No. 6 Florida State 91.3% over No. 47 Syracuse
No. 7 North Carolina 54.6% over No. 11 Miami (FL)
No. 9 Penn State 99.7% over No. 129 Massachusetts
No. 8 Georgia 95.8% over No. 87 Vanderbilt
No. 10 Duke 92.2% over No. 54 NC State
No. 12 Oregon State 57.1% over No. 17 UCLA
No. 13 Texas is idle
No. 14 Ohio State 92.3% over No. 77 Purdue
No. 15 Alabama 85.8% over No. 50 Arkansas
No. 16 Louisville 91.2% over No. 73 Pittsburgh
No. 19 Texas A&M 55.2% over No. 20 Tennessee
No. 21 LSU 76.3% over No. 40 Auburn
No. 22 Maryland 86.3% over No. 78 Illinois
No. 23 Florida 84.4% over No. 67 South Carolina
No. 24 Ole Miss is idle
No. 25 Wisconsin 86.8% over No. 84 Iowa
NCAAF NOTES
Michigan maintained the top spot in our rankings following an easy 52-10 win at Minnesota. Florida State took a huge leap from 13th to sixth after a 39-17 win over Virginia Tech.
On the outside of the top 25 looking in are No. 26 Air Force, No. 27 Kansas State, No. 28 SMU, No. 29 Arizona and No. 30 Rutgers.
Previous No. 29 Kentucky dropped to 45th after getting drubbed by No. 8 Georgia 51-13. The Wildcats (5-1) will try to bounce back against No. 41 Missouri, which suffered its first loss to LSU last weekend after taking down South Dakota, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, Memphis and Vanderbilt.
Playoff Potential Ratings
Our playoff potential rating suggests that only teams that have really impressed should make it to the CFP. As many know, no two-loss team has ever made it to the playoff, so having two losses while other teams have zero or one will not be good enough.
Teams with a playoff potential rating of 40-60 are most likely teams with two or three losses that would not make it (barring total chaos, like every team ahead of them somehow losing out). Teams with a rating of 61-80 would also not be included unless there is a little chaos.
Teams with a rating of 80-90 have playoff potential, but would likely need to win out and have one team ahead of them fall once we’re late in the regular season. Teams at 90 or above (max 100) should be the main teams considered for the playoff.
So here is the debut of our 2023 playoff potential ratings heading into Week 7. Again, there’s a lot on the line in that Oregon-Washington showdown in Seattle.
Playoff Potential Ratings
- T-1. Michigan (99)
- T-1. Oregon (99)
- 3. Washington (86)
- 4. Oklahoma (83)
- 5. Georgia (67)
- 6. North Carolina (62)
- 7. Florida State (58)
- 8. Penn State (48)
- 9. Duke (42)
- 10. Miami (FL) (38)
- 11. USC (36)
- 12. Air Force (34)
- 13. Oregon State (20)
- 14. UCLA (19)
- 15. Ohio State (17)
Check out our complete college football season predictions. And follow us on X and Instagram for more.