As we head into the October international break, it feels like an ideal time to check in on the Opta supercomputer‘s updated Championship predictions and analyse some of the underlying data powering those projections.
While it’s still early days in the 2024-25 Championship season, there’s been enough action for us to start forming ideas about what kind of campaign each of the 24 clubs might have.
As we head into the October international break, we’ve had nine matchdays of Championship action and Sunderland sit top of the table just ahead of Sheffield United on goal difference.
There’s a chasing pack of seven teams within five points of the top two, while 2024-25 hasn’t been too kind to Luton Town or Coventry City, with both sides touted as two of the pre-season favourites for top-six finishes.
So, what does the Opta supercomputer project will happen in 2024-25 now it has real-life data from this season to help power its decision making?
The Promotion Race
Back in August, the Opta supercomputer made Leeds United the overwhelming favourites for automatic promotion, with Daniel Farke’s side finishing inside the top two at the end of the season in 63.4% of its 10,000 season simulations. Leeds are still the favourites, but that number has reduced to 58.9% after winning 16 points from their first nine matches.
Sheffield United are the biggest winners, moving from 5.8% pre-season to 40.7% and second favourites now that we’ve reached the October international break.
Chris Wilder’s side have recovered well from a quite frankly appalling 2023-24 Premier League campaign, in which they amassed only 16 points – half the tally of 17th-place Nottingham Forest. They’ve already surpassed that in 2024-25 and have been in a losing position for just nine minutes and 12 seconds of action across their nine matches, and that was in the first half of their 1-1 draw at Norwich City on MD 3.
While their attack isn’t out of the ordinary – they sit mid-table for expected goals (11.2) and non-penalty expected goals (10.4) – they have been exceptional at the back.
The Blades have allowed opponents 0.72 xG per game, not only the lowest in the Championship this season, but the lowest per-game average across any of the previous six seasons, too.
Despite being top, Sunderland are still seen as outsiders for automatic promotion at 9.3% (seventh highest), but with a 39.6% chance of finishing inside the play-off spots, it promises to be an exciting season for the Black Cats after a poor 2023-24 campaign.
Both Burnley and West Bromwich Albion have started well, too. Burnley began the season as third-likeliest team to win automatic promotion based on the Opta supercomputer projections (18.5%) with that chance nearly doubling after nine matchweeks of action (34.4%). West Brom were fourth in the pre-season projections (17.2%) and are still fourth now, but with a higher projected chance of a top-two finish (21.5%).
One of the reasons for the increase in those four clubs is the terrible starts by Luton and Coventry this season.
Underperforming Expectations
Luton were deemed the fifth-likeliest side to win automatic promotion by the Opta supercomputer before a ball was kicked, but nine games and eight points later, they are fourth from bottom and currently get relegated more often (11.0%) than they win automatic promotion (0.14%) across the current 10,000 season simulations.
These simulations are based on what the Opta supercomputer knows today, and it doesn’t factor in new managers or clever recruitment. Will Luton really be relegated? Probably not, and there is some hope for Rob Edwards if you look at their underlying numbers.
Based on the Opta expected points model, Luton should really be higher in the league table than they are.
Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
It’s not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it can still give us a good guide as to how much we can read into the table at this stage of the season.
Luton have eight points, but their performances across their nine games should have earned them at least 13 points (13.3) based on the Opta expected points model. That expected points total is higher than third-place Burnley (12.9) and rivals Watford (10.0), who they face next. While the Hornets have double the number of points heading into the M1 derby on 19 October (16 vs 8), the underlying stats suggest they’ve had a lot more fortune than Luton.
It’s important to factor in game state here, though. Luton have been in a losing position for 43% of game time this season – only bottom club Cardiff City (55%) have been losing for a longer proportion of matches overall. Therefore, naturally, Luton are going to be chasing games and trying to find a way back into matches to win points.
All this talk of underperformance brings us on to Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough.
Saturday’s defeat to Watford was their third defeat of the season, but Boro have created the best-quality chances in the Championship this season (16.7 expected goals), and they are among the best performing defensive sides, with only Sheffield United, Leeds and Burnley allowing opponents a lower xG total (7.8).
Converting those chances is a real issue, however. Their shot conversion rate of 6.3% is the second lowest in the league behind only relegation favourites Cardiff (4.2%).
If the league table was powered by us ‘nerds’ and expected points mattered, Middlesbrough would be top of the league with 18 points. In reality, they are ninth and five points off the top two. There’s a danger this season could be yet another wasted opportunity for the club to make it back to the Premier League.
It would be remiss of us to move on from this subject without covering Millwall, too.
The most-experienced Championship team this season with the oldest average starting XI (28 years, 92 days), Millwall sit 18th with nine points from their nine games. The underlying attacking and defensive performances suggest they should be doing a lot better, though.
Based on our expected points model, Millwall have underperformed more than any other side, with a 7.7 difference between their real points (9) and expected points (16.7). In fact, Millwall’s expected points total is the third highest in the Championship behind only Middlesbrough (18.3) and Leeds United (18.2).
Essentially, this is saying that if you played each of Millwall’s first nine league games 10,000 times, based on the attacking and defensive performances that they put in, they would average 16.7 points from those nine games. Neil Harris’ side should climb up the table if they keep their performance levels up, with surely more fortune coming their way soon.
Relegation Battle
Our pre-season projections in August earnt us some criticism from Cardiff City supporters, with the Opta supercomputer making them early favourites for relegation after a poor second half to 2023-24.
They were relegated in 49.6% of the pre-season simulations, and now, nine games in, that projection stands at 87.5%, with the Bluebirds bottom of the league on five points. Erol Bulut was sacked on 22 September with just one point from six games, and although they have won four points in three games since, they are still favourites to be relegated ahead of Portsmouth (56.4%) and Queens Park Rangers (44.3%).
It should also be noted that Portsmouth are deemed to have had the toughest nine fixtures to start 2024-25, based on the Opta Power Rankings. Their average opponent Opta Power Rating was 78.8 in the opening stage of the season, which was higher than any other team.
The tide can change quickly in the Championship, however. We are still less than 20% of the way through the 2024-25 season, and there are many more points still to be won.
Since 2014-15, 16 different clubs have won five points or fewer from their opening nine games of the season and just five of those have gone on to be relegated. Last season, Sheffield Wednesday had won just two points at this stage of the season, then made the smart decision to name Danny Röhl as manager. They finished three points above the relegation zone.
Nottingham Forest won exactly five points after nine games of the 2021-22 season. They finished fourth and won the play-offs to earn promotion to the Premier League. So, Cardiff City and Portsmouth fans, you can still dream, eh?
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