It’s way too early to make serious judgements about teams and players in the Championship this season, but we’ll have a go anyway. Here are our knee-jerk reactions to the Championship season after the opening two matchdays of 2024-25.
Burnley Already the Team to Beat
Burnley have put down a marker for the rest of the Championship already this season. A brilliant 4-1 away win at Luton Town on the opening matchday was followed by a 5-0 rout of Cardiff City at home last weekend. In doing so, Scott Parker’s side have become the first team to score as many as nine goals in their opening two games of a second-tier season since Plymouth Argyle in 1962-63 (also nine).
It must be said, there has been an element of good fortune to Burnley’s goal output, however. Those nine goals have come from 20 shots worth just 2.3 expected goals (xG), while they also benefitted from a comical own goal after a mix-up between Ethan Horvath and Dimitrios Goutas to open the scoring versus Cardiff in the ninth minute on Saturday.
Burnley’s aim now will be to replicate the feats of both Newcastle United in 1992-93 and Fulham in 2000-01, who share the English second-tier record of winning their opening 11 league games to start a season – though admittedly they’ve still a little way to go.
Burnley (31.0%) have now moved ahead of Leeds (24.9%) as the Opta supercomputer’s favourites for the league title, which is as much to do with Leeds’ poor start as it is the Clarets’ great one.
But winning your opening two games hardly means you’re set for a title win. Since 2001-02 – the previous 23 seasons – just four of the eventual champions of the second tier have won their opening two games of that season: QPR in 2010-11, Bournemouth in 2014-15, Wolves in 2017-18 and Leicester in 2023-24.
Parker’s side will come up against another team with a 100% record to start 2024-25 this weekend, as they travel to Sunderland on Saturday. This is then followed by a tricky derby against Blackburn the following weekend. We’ll know more about their promotion credentials after those matches.
Cleverley Gives Watford Fans Hope of a Long-Term Manager
Since the Pozzo family’s arrival at Watford in the summer of 2012, the Hornets had made 20 different (permanent) managerial changes before Tom Cleverley was given the chance earlier this year.
Cleverley had only overseen the club’s under-18 side for less than a season before being given the reins to the first-team in March following the dismissal of Valérien Ismaël. A fan favourite as a player, the former England international played more games for Watford than any other club across his career, and he might just last longer than any other manager has at the Hertfordshire club during the Pozzo reign.
The 35-year-old, who is currently the second-youngest head coach in the Championship after Norwich City’s Johannes Thorup, navigated a tricky schedule at the end of 2023-24 to comfortably keep Watford in the league.
Overall, since his first game as boss – a 1-0 win over Birmingham City on 16 March – Cleverley has lost just two of his 11 games in charge and collected 17 points. That tally is just two points off the best record across this period, set by both Bristol City and Middlesbrough (19). Six of his 11 games have seen Watford keep a clean sheet, too, a tally only bettered by Sunderland (7) since his first game in charge.
Was the Opta Supercomputer Right About Cardiff?
When we released the pre-season Opta supercomputer projections for the Championship on the eve of the 2024-25 campaign, it didn’t go down well with Cardiff City supporters.
No team were relegated more often than Cardiff in the 10,000 season simulations by the supercomputer a week before the season began (49.6%), and they haven’t yet shown anything to make it change its mind. That projected chance now stands at 72.3% following defeats against both Sunderland and Burnley to start the campaign.
Their last 11 Championship games have seen them lose eight times and win fewer points than any ever-present club across the two seasons, while their 28 goals conceded in that period is also nine more than any other team.
However, it’s true that seven goals conceded in their opening two games could be seen as a tad unfortunate, considering they conceded shots worth just 2.6 expected goals versus Burnley and Sunderland. They’ll hope to change their fortunes this weekend in the big derby against Swansea City.
Jack Clarke is Ripe for a Move to the Premier League
There aren’t many players as talented as Sunderland’s Jack Clarke in the Championship. Earlier this month, we picked out Clarke as a player ready to make that step up to the Premier League, and his opening two league performances of 2024-25 have only strengthened that claim.
A goal on the opening weekend versus Cardiff was followed by an assist in their 4-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday afternoon.
Since he moved up to the Championship with Sunderland via a play-off final win over Wycombe Wanderers in 2021-22, Clarke has been one of the leading attacking players in the second tier.
Across the last three seasons (2022-23, 2023-24 and this season so far), the 23-year-old forward has been involved in the most non-penalty goals (42) in the Championship, while his tally of 160 chances created in open play is also the highest. His main threat comes from carrying the ball, with his 180 shot involvements (91 shots, 89 chances created) from ball carries also a league high across this period.
After many high-profile outgoings at Elland Road this summer, he’s been heavily linked with a move back to Leeds United, whom he left as an 18-year-old in July 2019 for £10 million. In hindsight, that move to Tottenham came too early in his career.
A move to another Championship club might be seen as a sideways step, with Sunderland also tipped to do well this season. While he could wait it out and try to win promotion with the Black Cats, there’s every chance they might be tempted by a substantial bid from a Premier League club before the transfer window closes at the end of the month.
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