The opening month of the 2024-25 Championship season is complete and we’re four games in, but what has the data told us so far?
The opening four matchdays of the 2024-25 Championship season have provided sufficient data for us to take a very early look at the underlying stats behind all 24 teams.
Sunderland have made the sort of start that would probably make for an upbeat episode of a Netflix documentary. Régis Le Bris was an unknown quantity when he was appointed head coach in the summer, but the former Lorient boss has made a perfect start to life in England. They are the only team to have a 100% record after four games, topping the table ahead of West Bromwich Albion and Watford.
The top two are among five teams yet to suffer defeat in the Championship in 2024-25, along with Leeds United, Blackburn Rovers and Sheffield United.
It hasn’t been a welcome return to the second tier for Luton Town, though, who have won just one point from their first four games and are only kept off the bottom of the Championship by Cardiff City on goal difference.
Sunderland have both the joint-most goals scored (10) and the fewest goals conceded (1), outperforming their expected goals (xG) by 3.82 (6.18 xG) as well as their xG against (xGA) – though only slightly – having allowed just 1.91 xGA, the lowest in the league and one of only two teams to have an xGA of less than 3.0.
Victories over Cardiff, Sheffield Wednesday, Burnley and Portsmouth have Sunderland leading the way, and according to our expected points table, they are rightly top, even if they perhaps shouldn’t have maximum points.
Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the xG value of the shots taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is simulated 10,000 times; the expected points for each team in every game can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
This is of course not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t take a lot of factors into account, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer of how teams are performing inside these opening four matches.
Our expected points table has Sunderland top on 9.3 points, ahead of Middlesbrough, who can consider themselves to be somewhat unlucky to sit seventh on seven points in the actual table considering they have the second-highest expected points total of 8.7.
Millwall are 15th on four points, but their expected points of 7.4 would have them in fifth. Spare a thought for poor Luton, though, who are not enjoying their return to the Championship so far. Rob Edwards’ side have just one point from games against Burnley, Portsmouth, Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers. However, our expected points model has them on 6.98 points, which would have them in sixth.
That will largely be due to them underperforming their xG by a league-high 3.48 (two goals from 5.48 xG), while coincidentally they are underperforming their xGA by exactly the same amount (seven conceded from 3.52 xGA). Interestingly, second-place West Brom should actually be eighth according to the expected points model, while third-place Watford are nine places ahead of where they should be (12th).
Promoted pair Oxford United and Derby County will be relatively pleased with their starts, sitting ninth and 10th respectively, though our expected points model has them at 13th and 19th respectively. Last season’s League One champions Portsmouth are 18th and yet to win (D3 L1), but concerningly for them, the model actually has John Mousinho’s side bottom of the table.
Sunderland top the table, but they aren’t doing so by dominating the ball. Their average possession of 42.9% is the third lowest in the division, while only eight teams have recorded fewer successful passes (1,215). Derby have the lowest average possession share (38.3%) while Millwall have completed the fewest passes (891). Meanwhile, Swansea City boast the highest possession average (59.3%) and Leeds have completed the most passes (1,823).
Scott Parker’s Burnley are the team overperforming their xG by the most, with 10 goals scored from just 3.26 xG, a frankly remarkable overperformance of 6.74 goals in just four games, while rivals Blackburn have the next highest with an overperformance of 4.97 (nine goals from 4.03 xG). After Luton, the next worst culprits for underperformance against xG have been Middlesbrough (five goals from 8.12 xG) and Stoke City (three goals from 5.19 xG).
Swansea are overperforming the most against their xGA, having conceded just three goals from 6.81 xGA, ahead of Plymouth Argyle (seven goals conceded from 9.49 xGA).
Head coach Steven Schumacher has Stoke pressing well, having recorded the most high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 metres of the opposition’s goal line) in the Championship with 34, though only three of those have resulted in a shot. Surprisingly, given they’ve already had three different managers this season, Preston have produced the most shot-ending high turnovers with an efficient nine from 21 overall. None have ended in a goal, though, with Sheffield United and Coventry City the only teams to have recorded multiple goals from high turnovers (two each).
Meanwhile, Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley have shown the most willingness to regain possession by having the joint-highest PPDA (passes per defensive action) of 9.7 each.
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