The Opta supercomputer has Erik ten Hag’s men as big favourites in their UEFA Europa League opener. Can the Red Devils start with victory? Here’s our Manchester United vs Twente prediction and preview.
Manchester United vs Twente Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer backed Manchester United for victory, with the hosts winning 65.3% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- FC Twente are winless in their last seven Europa League games (D4 L3).
- Man Utd have lost just one of their last 24 home matches in the competition (W18 D5).
Erik ten Hag will hope Manchester United can find their shooting boots when they open their UEFA Europa League campaign at home to Twente on Wednesday.
United had to settle for eighth place in the Premier League last season, but qualified for this competition after beating rivals Manchester City in the FA Cup final in May, with the Eredivisie side now their first Europa League test at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils head into this clash on the back of a frustrating draw away to Crystal Palace on Saturday evening as Ten Hag’s men largely dominated at Selhurst Park without reward.
Alejandro Garnacho, Matthijs de Ligt and Joshua Zirkzee all passed up presentable opportunities for the visitors, though they were also grateful to goalkeeper André Onana for a superb double save in the second half as well as Eberechi Eze’s miss as United played out just their fourth goalless draw under Ten Hag in 81 Premier League games.
Garnacho and Bruno Fernandes were both denied by the woodwork in that clash, with the midfielder hitting the crossbar on the follow-up attempt from his teammate also striking the frame of the goal. It continued a disappointing run for Fernandes, who has had more shots without scoring (17) than any other player across Europe’s big five leagues in 2024-25, attempting a further four on Saturday without finding the net.
The Portuguese playmaker will hope to turn that form around on Wednesday, though, with his 35 goal involvements (20 goals, 15 assists) in the Europa League more than any other player since his debut in the competition in February 2018.
Ten Hag will be looking for a much-needed win to boost the confidence in his camp, which appears probable considering his side’s recent home record in this competition. United lost their first two home games in the Europa League in 2012 but have since been beaten just once in their last 24 such matches (W18 D5).
Luke Shaw and Victor Lindelöf could both be available for selection in another positive for Ten Hag, though fellow defenders Tyrell Malacia and Leny Yoro remain out injured. Regardless of those absentees, United will be confident of dispatching their visitors, who find themselves in the Europa League after failing to navigate the UEFA Champions League playoff rounds.
Twente finished third in the Dutch top flight last season but exited Champions League qualification in the third round after a 5-4 aggregate defeat to Salzburg. That defeat forced them into their first Europa League campaign since the 2012-13 season, though Twente are winless in their last seven games in this competition (D4 L3).
As with the Champions League, the Europa League has been revamped this season, with the old 32-team and eight-group format replaced by a single, 36-team league phase. Playing eight sides – four home and four away – means Joseph Oosting’s side can afford to lose a couple of games, though goal difference is expected to play a huge role in the new-format competition.
Twente have impressed in the Eredivisie so far this term, though, sitting in fourth place, and they will head to Old Trafford with confidence after their 5-0 hammering of Almere City on Sunday. Sem Steijn was on target twice in that convincing victory, with Sam Lammers, Ricky van Wolfswinkel and Anass Salah-Eddine also finding the net. Curiously, they recorded a lower expected goals total than the hosts despite the thrashing (2.40-1.62).
Manchester United vs Twente Head-to-Head
The revamped competition opens up the possibility for plenty of new meetings, with Wednesday set to be the first clash in history between Man Utd and Twente.
That, of course, leaves nothing to discuss over their head-to-head records, but United have lost just one of their nine home games against Dutch sides in all competitions (W7 D1), going down 2-1 against Ajax in February 2012.
Twente’s form against English sides leaves a lot for head coach Oosting to improve upon. They have won just one of their 13 meetings with English opponents in all competitions (D5 L7), though that 1-0 victory was in their most recent such match against Fulham in December 2011.
Manchester United vs Twente Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than a Manchester United win here, with the hosts triumphant in 65.3% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Twente managed an unlikely victory in only 16% of the data-led sims, while a draw occurred in 18.7% of scenarios.
Manchester United vs Twente Predicted Lineups
Manchester United: André Onana, Noussair Mazraoui, Matthijs de Ligt, Lisandro Martínez, Diogo Dalot, Kobbie Mainoo, Christian Eriksen, Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo, Alejandro Garnacho, Joshua Zirkzee.
Head coach: Erik ten Hag
Twente: Lars Unnerstall, Bart van Rooij, Mees Hilgers, Max Bruns, Anass Salah-Eddine, Youri Regeer, Carel Eiting, Daan Rots, Sem Steijn, Mitchell van Bergen, Sam Lammers.
Head coach: Joseph Oosting
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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