In our Week 3 fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
We all love fantasy football, which is why it’s a game that infuriates us all. What follows are 10 irrefutably true statements through two weeks. They are also 10 stats that will absolutely positively make fantasy football managers irate. Enjoy!
- The Green Bay Packers ran the ball an astounding 53 times last week against the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Malik Willis attempted only 14 passes on their way to scoring 16 points. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills scored 31 points in their win over the Miami Dolphins. The outcome? Willis outscored Josh Allen in fantasy last week.
- Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams got battered last week by the Houston Texans. Another thing that happened in that game? Khalil Herbert had four touches, while D’Andre Swift had 18. And you guessed it, Herbert outscored Swift.
- Alexander Mattison had four carries for one yard last week. But he also scored a rushing touchdown for the Las Vegas Raiders in their upset win over the Baltimore Ravens last week. Here’s a smattering of running backs without a rushing touchdown so far on the season: Bijan Robinson, Najee Harris and the guy tied for the NFL lead in rushing attempts – Josh Jacobs.
- The New Orleans Saints have scored 91 points through two games. That’s a lot of points. No, seriously, the Kansas City Chiefs have only scored 92 points in their last four regular season games combined. Chris Olave through two games? WR52.
- There were five rookie quarterbacks selected in the first round this season. Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix and Bo Nix. Through two weeks, they have zero combined passing touchdowns.
- There are four kickers with at least 31 fantasy points through two weeks. There are zero tight ends with that many points.
- Michael Pittman Jr. leads the Colts by a wide margin with 15 targets. Alec Pierce has 10 and Ashton Dulin only has three. Related? Both have more PPR points than Pittman so far this season. There are 16 players with a catch of at least 52 yards this season. That’s how many receiving yards Pittman has in total.
- Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy and Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff were first, third and fourth respectively in passing touchdowns last season. Through two weeks, they have a combined four.
- Here is a list of players with a single-game performance of 5.0 or fewer PPR points through two weeks: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London, Olave, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid. Another similarity between all those players? The wide receivers were all top-12 players in average draft position (ADP) at their position, and the tight ends were all in the top five.
- Teams are averaging 193.6 passing yards per game entering Week 3. Just five years ago, in 2019, only two teams averaged fewer than 195 passing yards per game. Gross.
And on that cheery note, let’s hope everything goes absolutely swimmingly for all of our teams this week. It won’t.
The Yays: Week 3 Fantasy Plays Projected Higher Than Expert Consensus
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Trevor Lawrence, QB (JAX) vs BUF (ECR: 20, Our Rank: QB11, Projected Points: 17.01)
The Jacksonville Jaguars with 2:27 remaining in the third quarter of their Week 1 matchup with the Miami Dolphins were one yard from the goal line with Travis Etienne seemingly poised to run the ball into the end zone to give the Jags a commanding 24-7 lead. Instead, he fumbled. One play later, Tyreek Hill scored an 80-yard touchdown. One week and one quarter later, the Jags are already two games behind the Texans and staring down an 0-4 start (the Jags play in Houston in Week 4).
And as disappointed as Jaguars fans likely are (seriously, how can you lose a game when you temporarily name your stadium after your star quarterback?), fantasy managers of Lawrence are equally upset. Lawrence has scored less than 14 points in both of his starts. But that’s enough bad news because Lawrence, who was a season-long Yay just a few weeks ago, is also a Yay this week against the Bills.
The Bills have scored 12 more points than any other team in the AFC. Because of that, quarterbacks are averaging 35 pass attempts against them. And, in games in which Lawrence has attempted at least 35 passes, he averages 277 passing yards per game and 1.35 passing touchdowns per game. His projected totals for this week? 35.4 attempts, 258.4 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns. Lawrence is a high-end QB2 this week.
Zamir White, RB (LV) vs CAR (ECR: 27, Our Rank: RB14, PP: 14.83)
Look back at the third bullet point in our opening. You know who else doesn’t have a rushing touchdown? The starting running back for the Raiders.
However, White has 27 touches to Mattison’s 13 so far this season, including multiple catches in both games. In other words, he is still definitively the lead back in this offense, and this week he gets to play against *checks notes* the Carolina Panthers. Opponents through two weeks against the Panthers are averaging 40.5 carries, and 199.5 rushing yards and the Panthers have allowed three rushing touchdowns.
White is inside our model’s top 15 running backs for both projected rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. As such, independent of any potential competition he faces in his own backfield, White falls squarely into the RB2 tier for this week thanks to a defense that is getting run all over to start the season.
DK Metcalf, WR (SEA) vs MIA (ECR: 18, Our Rank: WR7, PP: 16.21)
What does it say about you as a wide receiver if your most famous play is a tackle? If you are a football fan – and the guess here is that if you’re this far into the article, you are one – you can absolutely picture in your mind Metcalf chasing down Budda Baker. But can you picture a Metcalf touchdown catch? Do you have any idea how many receptions Metcalf had last week against the New England Patriots?
Heck, do you even know that Metcalf finished Week 2 as the WR2? Because it doesn’t quite seem as though the industry is accounting for his strong week, which is why he’s only a borderline top-20 player amongst experts this week.
Metcalf finished last week with 14 targets. In games with at least nine targets, Metcalf averages 18.05 PPR points per game. If you haven’t been following along, Geno Smith is playing tremendous football. His well-thrown percentage through two games is 92.6%, second only to Patrick Mahomes. Metcalf is the major beneficiary, and our model likes his chances of producing back-to-back top 10 performances.
Jauan Jennings, WR (SF) vs LAR (ECR: 56, Our Rank: WR30, PP: 11.74)
The player affectionately known by 49ers fans as third-and-Jauan has been an underrated playmaker on a 49ers offense filled with superstars. Since the start of the 2022 season, Jennings and George Kittle are tied for the second-most third-down targets, and Jennings’ 25 first downs are eight more than Deebo Samuel during that time span.
Deebo and CMC are both out this week due to injury, and Kittle could be joining them on the sidelines. Brandon Aiyuk (first on the team in both of those categories listed above) is off to a slow start after not practicing all preseason in search of a new contract. In an offense that plays a lot of snaps that only involve two wide receivers (think formations with Jordan Mason and Kyle Juszczyk), Jennings is sure to receive an uptick in playing time.
And when he plays, he’s productive:
In deeper leagues, the model likes Jennings’ chances of turning his interim role as the 49ers WR2 into a solid flex-type outing.
The Nays: Week 3 Fantasy Plays Projected Lower Than Expert Consensus
Jayden Daniels, QB (WSH) vs CIN (ECR: 8, Our Rank: QB19, PP: 14.74)
Daniels was on the Yays list last week, and he responded by scoring points on all seven of his non-kneel down drives in the Washington Commanders dominant win over the New York Giants. That sounds awesome!
Let’s try again: Daniels was on the Yays list last week, and he responded by leading seven different drives that ended in a field goal, somehow leading his Commanders to a win over the Giants despite allowing three touchdowns and scoring none. That sounds, well, not awesome.
This week, Daniels faces a Cincinnati Bengals defense that just held Mahomes to his single lowest passing yards output of any healthy game of his professional career (151). They also forced two interceptions, and Mahomes finished the week as the QB15. Only Nix, Will Levis and Skyler Thompson are projected for more interceptions than Daniels this week. He’s a low-end QB2.
James Cook, RB (BUF) vs JAX (ECR: 9, Our Rank: RB19, PP: 14.44)
Cook scored three touchdowns last week and finished as the RB2, behind only Alvin Kamara’s explosion. For Cook’s fantasy managers, that’s the good news.
Here’s the bad news, in his rookie season in 2022, Cook scored two rushing touchdowns and three touchdowns overall. In his second season in 2023, Cook again only scored two rushing touchdowns. That larger sample size indicates to the model that his Week 2 performance was likely more of a fluke than an indication of things to come.
He checks in this week 35th among running backs in projected rushing touchdowns. That alone is the reason why he is an RB2 according to our model, as opposed to the low-end RB1 the industry suggests. Still play him, but hope that his floor (high scrimmage yards and enough involvement in the passing game) is sufficient enough to sustain him without a touchdown.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (ARI) vs DET (ECR: 9, Our Rank: WR23, PP: 12.98)
What a two weeks it’s been for Harrison Jr. His debut was so bad that fantasy managers either benched him or considered benching him for Week 2. He finished Week 1 as the WR104 – I promise this is not a typo. So how did he respond? Oh, how about finishing as WR1.
Two things are true about Harrison’s Week 2 performance. He finished the week as the top wide receiver in fantasy and he also didn’t have a single reception after the first quarter. This is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it’s great that he has such boom potential to literally outscore every other wide receiver on the week in just 12 minutes of game time. On the other hand, Marv has now played eight quarters in the NFL, and he has caught a pass in only two of them.
Now facing off against a surprising Lions defense that just held Baker Mayfield to 12 completions and Mike Evans to a pedestrian three receptions for 42 yards, the model is skeptical of Harrison’s ability to replicate his performance from last week. Until he shows more consistency, and Kyler Murray shows more chemistry with his star wide receiver, Harrison is a WR2 both this week and moving forward.
Looking for more players like Derek Carr, George Pickens and what’s left of the Rams’ receivers? Don’t forget to check out our complete fantasy football rankings. Happy exploring. And follow along on Instagram and X.