This is all about finding players our projection model thinks the industry is underrating or overrating ahead of another full season of fantasy coverage on Opta Analyst.
Christian McCaffrey is awesome. The San Francisco 49ers star is, unquestionably, the cream of the crop in fantasy this year, and he should be the automatic 1.01 pick if you’re lucky enough to pick first in a snake draft.
You also won’t find him in this article. Nor will you find Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson or Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen or New York Jets RB Breece Hall. Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys or Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals? The Kansas City Chiefs duo of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce?
Nope, they’re not here either.
This is all about finding players our projection model thinks the industry is underrating or overrating. So, as we kick off another full season of fantasy coverage on Opta Analyst, we’ve created this cheat sheet highlighting players we feel might either be great fantasy football draft-day values, or players maybe worth avoiding at their current price.
Note: The ADPs (average draft position) for these players are coming from the consensus fantasy football rankings at fantasypros.com as of Aug. 28. For our purposes, we will be assuming a full PPR (one point per reception) league format.
QB Yays
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: QB16, Our Rank: QB6)
After coming into the NFL out of Clemson as a borderline can’t miss prospect, Lawrence has probably been slightly underwhelming compared to the oversized expectations that were on his shoulders coming out of college. He’s only made the playoffs once in three years, leading the Jaguars to a 20-30 record through his first 50 games.
That disappointment has been felt not only by Jags fans, but by fantasy managers as well. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields – the new QB room for the Pittsburgh Steelers – were among the quarterbacks that averaged more fantasy points per game last season than Lawrence. But, as always, that doesn’t tell the whole story. From Week 11 onwards last season, only Allen, Jackson, Jordan Love, and the out-of-nowhere Joe Flacco averaged more than Lawrence’s 21.1 fantasy points per game.
Within that stretch were four touchdown passes against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens, two of the elite defenses from the 2023 NFL season. He has a shiny new contract, a solid group of offensive weapons, and a sneaky rushing floor as Lawrence has scored at least one fantasy point on the ground in 78% of his career games – if that doesn’t seem like a lot, Mahomes has only reached that total in 66.7% of his games.
Despite going off draft boards as QB16 in drafts during the preseason, Lawrence is solidly in our model’s second tier of quarterbacks, along with Dak Prescott of the Cowboys, Joe Burrow of the Bengals, Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals and Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: QB25, Our Rank: QB11)
Smith was one of football’s feel-good stories of 2022, finishing the year as QB5 and leading his Seahawks to the postseason. How quickly people forget…
Smith enters this year less than two years removed from that top-five finish as the industry’s QB25! Even last year, when the Seahawks struggled and Smith dealt with some injuries, he finished the year as QB18. It’s mind-boggling how low Smith is just by judging against his past performance. But there are real reasons for optimism in 2024 that could propel Smith to a borderline top-10 finish.
For starters, the Seahawks return Smith’s six leading receivers from a season ago and, maybe just as importantly, Seattle welcomes a new coaching staff this season. Sure, it’s a new system, but with new head coach Mike Macdonald at the helm theoretically improving a defense that struggled last season, Smith and the offense should get more opportunities.
Case in point, the Seahawks were the only team in the NFL last season to run fewer than 1,000 offensive plays. And on the flip side, no defense faced more plays than Seattle.
A simple uptick in volume should be more than enough to boost Smith back closer to his 2022 numbers. He fits comfortably within our model’s third tier of quarterbacks, with pocket passers like Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa and the next player on our list.
Quick aside, Seattle is one of our model’s favorite offenses this season. Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are all significantly higher in our projections than the industry’s expectations. They make for a very interesting stacking opportunity.
QB Nays
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans (ADP: QB5, Our Rank: QB12)
Which brings us to Stroud. You may be wondering how Smith can be above Stroud, particularly when almost everything we said about Smith also rings true for Stroud.
It’s a fair question. The Texans are returning their top-three receivers from a season ago, their offensive staff, and, oh yeah, they also traded for Stefon Diggs. Everything about this young and exciting offense screams that they are ascending.
So, here’s our reminder: We’re playing fantasy football here. And in rare cases like Stroud, a quarterback can be significantly better and more valuable in real life than they are in fantasy.
Quick question for you: How many top-six weekly finishes do you think Stroud had during his historic rookie season? What if I told you that Desmond Ridder had three weeks where he finished as a top-six quarterback, and Stroud only had two? Because that’s exactly what happened.
Stroud finished one game last season with more than 20 yards rushing. He also only had five games from Week 3 onwards where he attempted at least 35 passes. Dak Prescott, during that same time frame, averaged 35.2 passes per game. This is an offense that likes to try to establish the run with a quarterback that doesn’t run a lot.
Don’t worry, he’s still ranked ahead of Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. As a player, he’s awesome. As a fantasy asset, our model thinks Stroud is going too high in drafts.
RB Yays
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: RB14, Our Rank: RB4)
White is being drafted as the 14th running back off the board. So how can it be that we’re going out on a limb for a player that finished last season as the, wait for it… RB4.
Less than nine months ago, he was a potential league-winning running back. Meanwhile, entering this season, his only competition for touches in the Bucs backfield are a fourth-round rookie and a player with 23 career rushing yards (on a ghastly 15 rushes no less) and he’s projected to fall 10 spots in the rankings?
Clearly something’s amiss, and a quick dive into White’s data makes it clear what it is. He was one of the most inefficient running backs in terms of total yards per touch. Twenty-three running backs had at least 200 carries last season and White’s 3.64 yards per carry was the third-worst mark. But what’s lost is his overall volume. He was second in the NFL in touches, just three behind McCaffrey.
And now he’s facing less competition for touches than last season.
Our model is projecting White for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry again this season but only four other running backs are projected to receive at least 200 carries and record 50 catches. He is a volume-reliant player, but he’s going to get the ball a lot.
He is, once again, a potential league-winning running back at his current value and our model ranks him just behind Bijan Robinson and ahead of RBs like Travis Etienne Jr., Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane, Alvin Kamara, James Cook, Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (ADP: RB27, Our Rank: RB14)
Remember those 23 running backs we mentioned with 200 carries? Well, Williams was one of the two running backs with an even lower average yards per carry than White. Unlike White, however, who already proved he can finish a full season as a top-five running back, Williams has something to prove, but the model is optimistic about his chances.
Williams tore his ACL early in the 2022 season and, while he was able to play a full 2023 season, now that he’s fully removed from his recovery, there’s a good chance some of his explosiveness and productivity returns. And that bared itself out over the last 10 weeks of last season. From weeks 1-7, Williams was RB34. From Week 8 onwards, Williams rocketed up to become a top-20 running back for the rest of the season.
A major reason for that finish was Williams’ work in the passing game. He finished the season fourth on the Broncos in receptions. No. 3 on that list was another running back – Samaje Perine – who is no longer on the team. Our baselines value the additional opportunities that Williams is likely to receive in the passing game in a very running back friendly Sean Payton offense.
He is a solid RB2 that can be had in the seventh or eighth round of a draft. He’s ranked just behind Joe Mixon but ahead of popular pick Kyren Williams. Go with him before taking a chance on someone like Nick Chubb (RB32) or Blake Corum (RB53).
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: RB37, Our Rank: RB23)
In the first seven seasons of his career, all with the Cowboys, Zeke averaged 1,514 scrimmage yards and over 11 touchdowns per season. Last season, his first away from Big D, Zeke only notched five touchdowns and 955 scrimmage yards, having to split duties with Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
But you know what else happened while Zeke was in Foxborough? He led the Patriots in receptions. Now, he comes back to a Dallas backfield where his main competition is Rico Dowdle (and Dalvin Cook – although for now he’s just on the practice squad) and the industry thinks he’s going to produce less? Our model doesn’t think so.
Zeke is going outside the top 100 in drafts, and he’s in line to be the… starting running back that gets most the goal line and passing game opportunities on a Cowboys offense that has led the NFL in scoring in two of the past three seasons – they finished fourth in 2022.
Don’t let his age fool you, he is a steal at his current price, one our model expects him to greatly outperform. He’s a better bet in our rankings than a player like Raheem Mostert (RB35).
RB Nays
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (ADP: RB6, Our Rank: RB18)
This one is tough, because by pure talent, Gibbs might be one of the elite running backs in the NFL. But there’s a common phrase that applies directly to Gibbs’ situation: “When someone tells you who they are, believe them.”
Head coach Dan Campbell has told us since the beginning of his tenure that he’s a smashmouth type of football coach. And he has a running back, David Montgomery, that is exactly that. Montgomery missed Weeks 7 and 8 due to injury last year.
Those two weeks represented Gibbs’ two highest-scoring weeks of the season. You take those two weeks out, and Gibbs’ PPR per game average was 14.2, which would have slotted in as last season’s RB17. Montgomery’s season-long average? 14.8.
There’s just too much uncertainty in the Detroit backfield, particularly with the valuable touches – Montgomery had nine more carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line than Gibbs – and combined with a passing game that consists of a top-three fantasy option at both wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and tight end (Sam LaPorta), and you have a player with a lot of question marks to be taken in the first round.
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (ADP: RB20, Our Rank: RB34)
Playing for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023, Swift had five rushing touchdowns. In 2022 with the Lions, Swift had five rushing touchdowns. 2021? Again, exactly five rushing touchdowns.
Meanwhile, in 30 games since the beginning of 2022, Swift averages fewer than three receptions per game, has only three games with 100 rushing yards and only one game with at least 50 receiving yards.
Now, he finds himself in an offense loaded with talent in the receiver room (more on this later) and the industry is expecting his volume of touchdowns and passing game opportunities to expand? And that’s with a quarterback whose best trait is playmaking outside the structure of a play – the exact opposite of a checkdown merchant.
Last year’s RB20, Kenneth Walker III had over 1,100 scrimmage yards and eight rushing touchdowns. Those numbers feel like the high end of what Swift might produce. Our model has him projected for 4.8 rushing touchdowns and 1,027 scrimmage yards. Swift is more of a Flex-level player for the model, one with upside certainly, but an upside that has never really been proven before.
Pass Catcher Yays
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears (ADP: WR22, Our Rank: WR10)
Speaking of that Bears receiver room… is Moore the most underrated receiver in the NFL? Here’s the entire list of players with more receiving yards than him over the last five seasons.
Now match that up with this list of the most frequent quarterback to throw him the ball in each of the last five seasons… Kyle Allen (2019), Teddy Bridgewater (2020), Sam Darnold (2021), Baker Mayfield (2022) and Justin Fields (2023). I think it might be fair to say that Caleb Williams might already be the best quarterback on that list.
Despite all that, Moore is the industry’s WR22 because of a fear that Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze take away some of his volume. But the model doesn’t think so. Allen is a technician whose game likely doesn’t mesh perfectly with Williams’, Odunze is a rookie WR3 on his own team, and the Bears just signed Moore to a lucrative extension confirming that he is the undisputed WR1 on this team.
The model is extremely bullish on Moore’s chances of significantly outperforming his current value. After the bigger names like Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua and Justin Jefferson have been taken, consider moving on to Moore.
DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (WR41, Our Rank: WR32)
For fantasy managers, it can be hard to watch a player transition from absolutely elite to simply a role player. That change over time can cause us to underrate certain players, which is exactly what’s happening with Hopkins.
Here’s the thing, he’s no longer the guy. But can he help you win weeks as a potential Flex player? Absolutely.
Since 2014, his second year in the league, Hopkins has played at least 15 games in eight seasons. In those eight seasons, his worst finish was WR26, all the way back in 2016. Even last year, with a messy QB situation in his first season with the Titans, Hopkins still finished the year with over 1,000 receiving yards, seven touchdowns and a yearly finish as the WR22.
Again, you have to remind yourself repeatedly that you’re not drafting Hopkins to be your WR1. But he’s currently going outside the top 40 wide receivers during drafts, which is something he’s never come close to doing in any of his healthy seasons, including last year with the same team and the same quarterback.
The model is optimistic that Hopkins will outperform his ranking, and you should be as well.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: TE7, Our Rank: TE2)
Everything we mentioned about White earlier can essentially be repeated here for Engram. He finished last season as TE2. All that happened in the offseason was the Jags moved on from their No. 1 wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, and replaced him with Gabe Davis and a rookie.
Engram had 143 targets and 114 receptions, both of which led NFL tight ends by a large margin last season. Forget tight ends, Engram finished fourth in the NFL in receptions. His only flaw was a lack of touchdowns, but his floor is so high that any slight uptick in touchdowns might produce a TE1-type of season.
Our model has no reason to think those numbers might decline, ranking him ahead of perhaps more popular tight ends like George Kittle, Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson and T.J. Hockenson. If anything, with an optimistic view of the Jaguars offense this season, the numbers might get better.
He’s not going as the TE2 in drafts, but if you can get him in the later rounds, you will be drafting a set-and-forget tight end.
Pass Catcher Nays
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (ADP: WR25, Our Rank: WR37)
Cooper averaged 15.1 PPR points per game last season, good for WR18. However, Joe Flacco took over the job in Week 13 and from that point forward, Cooper averaged 22.9 points per game. Before Week 13, he was only averaging 12.3 PPR points per game.
In case you didn’t hear, Flacco is now in Indianapolis and the Browns are once again turning their team over to Deshaun Watson, who has not been a good NFL quarterback in four years.
Cooper has felt the brunt of that poor play and the model’s projection for Cooper has everything to do with its expectations for Watson (QB25) as opposed to the caliber of player that Cooper is.
He is risky flex play week-in and week-out in an unpredictable and potentially very poor Browns passing offense. Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Olave, Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr. and even rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. are all ranked ahead of Cooper.
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers
Christian Watson. Jayden Reed. Romeo Doubs. Dontayvion Wicks. This is pretty simple. If you’re confident that you know who the alpha dog amongst those four players is, go grab them in your draft.
And don’t be afraid to do it early because you’ll be getting the WR1 on an offense that averaged 275 passing yards per game from Week 10 onwards – when quarterback Jordan Love really found his footing in his first season as a starter. That number by the way, would have been 10 yards more than the Miami Dolphins league-leading passing yards per game mark.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, during that span, Reed, Doubs and Wicks all had two games as the Packers leading receiver, Watson, had one, as did fifth receiver Bo Melton and tight end Luke Musgrave. That is as confusing as trying to decode who to play among that group.
This offense is designed to spread the ball around, and until there’s a clear distinction in pecking order, the model is staying away from the entire passing offense.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (ADP: TE5, Our Rank: TE11)
With Stefon Diggs no longer in Buffalo, there’s a huge void to fill in the Bills’ passing game and seemingly a lot of optimism that Kincaid might become the rarest of things – a tight end who is also the No. 1 option in his team’s passing attack.
Well, even our model thinks a whiff of that hope might be true. Kincaid is projected to finish with more receptions than any other Bills player this season. Even then, he’s still ranked much lower in our model than across the industry and it’s really for one main reason – the Bills rushing attack.
On Nov. 13, 2023, the Bills ran the ball 26 times (for 192 yards!!!) in a loss to the Denver Broncos. On Nov. 14, the Bills fired their OC, Ken Dorsey, and promoted Joe Brady to the position. The Bills played seven games after Dorsey took over and here were their team total rushing attempts: 38, 40, 28, 49, 30, 37, 36. They scored 10 rushing touchdowns in those final eight games. Josh Allen also only threw for 10 passing touchdowns.
The Bills are a team that transitioned right in front of our eyes to immediately become one of the most run-heavy teams in football, and that translated to fewer red zone passing attempts. And because of that, Kincaid’s touchdown baseline is 15th among tight ends. The model is only projecting him for four touchdowns this season, which by the way, is two more than he scored last season.
The model views him as a borderline TE1 as opposed to the surefire top-10 tight end he’s being drafted to be.
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