Two of the favourites for the Copa America meet in the quarter-finals. We look ahead to this game with our Uruguay vs Brazil prediction and preview.
Uruguay vs Brazil Stats: The Key Insights
- This game is almost too close to call, but the Opta supercomputer has given the slight edge to Brazil, who win 37.4% of pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes.
- Brazil and Uruguay are two of the three teams who have not fallen behind at any point of the tournament, alongside Argentina.
- Brazil have never lost a knockout match against Uruguay in the Copa America, with two wins and three draws (W2 L1 of the penalty shootouts).
Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay are the only team capable of stopping Argentina from defending their Copa America crown, so says Sergio Agüero.
First, though, Uruguay will have to overcome nine-time Copa America champions Brazil.
Uruguay, who topped Group C with nine points from their three games, face the Seleção in Las Vegas on Saturday. They scored nine times across those three group contests, which is three goals more than any other team in the competition.
Brazil finished second in Group D, behind Colombia, drawing two and winning one of their matches. Not securing top spot means they now have to overcome a huge quarter-final test.
Former Argentina striker Agüero feels that Uruguay, not Brazil, are the favourites to challenge the reigning champions, who scraped past Ecuador on penalties to reach the last four.
In an interview with Stake.com, Agüero said: “I think Uruguay have a lot to give now with Bielsa. They should go far in the tournament.
“I think Argentina are their own biggest threat, and we shouldn’t be overconfident. But Uruguay are the only team that could beat us, because Bielsa knows Lionel Scaloni very well.
“Let’s not forget that Uruguay are the only team that has beaten us since becoming world champions.”
As well as beating Argentina in 2026 World Cup qualifying, Uruguay have also defeated Brazil.
And their achievement in winning 100% of the available points in the group stage was the first time they had done that in the Copa since 1942, when they won all six of their matches and were crowned champions.
In a further boost to Bielsa’s team, Brazil’s talisman Vinícius Júnior will miss the game due to suspension.
“Viní is a top player who can win games for us,” Brazil defender Danilo said. “But we have other players with a lot of quality and potential, and let’s try to make up for Viní’s absence.”
Real Madrid forward Vinícius is Brazil’s leading scorer at the tournament, with both of his goals having come in the 4-1 win over Paraguay on Matchday 2.
Brazil and Uruguay are two of the three teams who have not fallen behind at any point of the tournament, alongside Argentina, while Uruguay have lost only one of their 10 quarter-final matches at the Copa America (W4 D5), since this round was first played in 1993. Half of these games have been decided by penalty shootouts, with Uruguay winning two of those.
This will be the first knockout meeting between these nations at the Copa America since the 2007 semi-finals, when Brazil won on penalties en route to becoming champions.
Knocking out Brazil will be no mean feat. They have never lost a knockout match against Uruguay in the Copa America, with two wins and three draws (W2 L1 of the penalty shootouts).
And, in a streak that is ongoing since 2011, Brazil have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last 24 Copa matches.
Players to Watch
Uruguay – Sergio Rochet
Goalkeeper Rochet has kept a clean sheet in six of the last seven matches he has played for Uruguay across all competitions.
The only team to score against him during this period was Panama, in Uruguay’s 3-1 victory in the group stage.
Brazil – Raphinha
Raphinha scored Brazil’s goal in their 1-1 draw with Colombia last time out with an outstanding free-kick, and with Vinícius out of action, the onus will be on the Barcelona man to provide the spark in attack.
Against Colombia, Raphinha attempted six dribbles, completing three of them, with both figures being team highs. His direct free-kick goal was the first scored by a Brazil player since 2019.
Uruguay vs Brazil Prediction
We have already had one penalty shootout in the Copa America quarters, and Opta’s model is suggesting we could have another, with the supercomputer finding it hard to separate these sides.
Agüero might be backing Uruguay, but it’s Brazil who won more of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations (37.4%) inside 90 minutes, slightly ahead of their opponents (35.6%). The game went to penalties in the remaining 27% of sims.
Brazil are second favourites to go all the way and win the tournament, doing so in 16.2% of simulations, while Uruguay are third favourites with a 14.6% chance.
Uruguay vs Brazil Squads
Uruguay
Franco Israel, Santiago Mele, Sergio Rochet, Guillermo Varela, José Giménez, Lucas Olaza, Mathías Olivera, Matías Viña, Nicolás Marichal, Ronald Araujo, Sebastián Cáceres, Brian Rodríguez, Emiliano Martínez, Facundo Pellistri, Federico Valverde, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Manuel Ugarte, Maximiliano Araújo, Nahitan Nández, Nicolás de la Cruz, Rodrigo Bentancur, Agustín Canobbio, Brian Ocampo, Cristian Olivera, Darwin Núñez, Luis Suárez.
Head coach: Marcelo Bielsa
Brazil
Alisson Becker, Bento, Rafael, Beraldo, Bremer, Danilo, Éder Militão, Gabriel Magalhães, Guilherme Arana, Marquinhos, Wendell, Yan Couto, Andreas Pereira, Bruno Guimarães, Douglas Luiz, Éderson, João Gomes, Lucas Paquetá, Endrick, Evanilson, Gabriel Martinelli, Pepê, Raphinha, Rodrygo, Savinho, Vinícius Júnior.
Head coach: Dorival Júnior
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