After both suffered semi-final defeats at the Copa America, Canada and Uruguay must now face off for third place in North Carolina. Look ahead to the tie with our Canada vs Uruguay prediction and preview.
Canada vs Uruguay Stats: The Key Insights
- Uruguay are heavy favourites to take third place at the Copa America with the Opta supercomputer. It gives them a 70% chance of winning inside 90 minutes.
- Canada are aiming to become the third Concacaf country to finish third in the competition after Mexico (1997, 1999 and 2007) and Honduras (2001).
- A victory would make this Uruguay’s joint-second best Copa campaign of the 21st century, after they won the title in 2011.
Jesse Marsch hopes Canada’s memorable Copa America debut changes the trajectory of football in the country, as they look to cap their campaign with a bronze medal against Uruguay.
Canada’s first appearance at the tournament saw them reach the semi-finals, a memorable penalty shoot-out victory over Venezuela teeing up a meeting with Argentina.
Marsch’s team gave a solid account of themselves against the holders but were beaten 2-0 with Julián Álvarez and Lionel Messi on target, sending Canada into Saturday’s third-place play-off.
Marsch, who was only appointed a few weeks before the tournament began, hopes their campaign will be a catalyst for further improvement ahead of a home World Cup in 2026.
“We want to inspire the nation,” Marsch said the day after Canada’s semi-final defeat. “We want to develop the sport in this country.
“We want people to remember this as a moment in time that changed the trajectory of what this sport is in Canada.
“We’re establishing things at some high levels. But in order to be a real team that can hold up to the biggest moments and biggest matches, there’s more work to be done.
“Physically, mentally, intellectually, we’ve got to find a way to develop players faster.”
Marsch added he will make changes to his lineup in North Carolina, with Alphonso Davies a doubt after he suffered an injury to his left foot.
Canada are aiming to become the third Concacaf country to finish third in the competition after Mexico (1997, 1999 and 2007) and Honduras (2001).
A victory would make this the second-best campaign by a non-CONMEBOL Copa America debutant nation, after Mexico took silver on their 1993 bow. However, Marsch’s men are big outsiders.
Marsch will come up against his Leeds United predecessor Marcelo Bielsa on Saturday, after his much-fancied Uruguay side were beaten 1-0 by 10-man Colombia in their own semi-final.
Daniel Muñoz was sent off on the stroke of half-time after Jefferson Lerma had headed Colombia into the lead, but Uruguay were outshot seven to six while a man up despite enjoying 73% of the possession.
Bielsa believes La Celeste would have been better off against a full complement, saying: “When they have 11, Colombia are a team that plays to play, and so are we.
“In that context, we created scoring chances and the ones we conceded were generated by some concessions from us.
“Eleven against eleven, for us, it was easier to attack, and we had to defend. In the second half, playing with an extra man, it was much more difficult to attack, and we practically didn’t have to defend.”
Uruguay’s defeat was marred by scenes of crowd violence involving the families of some Celeste players at full-time, prompting CONMEBOL to open an investigation.
Uruguay have participated in the third-place play-off at the Copa America on three previous occasions, beating Colombia 2-1 in 2004, drawing 2-2 with Honduras in 2001 (then losing on penalties) and suffering a 3-1 defeat to Mexico in 2007.
A victory in North Carolina would make this Uruguay’s joint-second best Copa campaign of the 21st century, after they won the title in 2011.
They have only lost four of their 15 Copa America matches against Concacaf opponents, though they are winless in their last three such games in the knockout rounds.
Players to Watch
Canada – Jonathan David
Canada had 25 touches in Argentina’s penalty area in their semi-final loss, 12 more than the world champions, yet they only managed five shots from inside the box to their opponents’ seven.
If they are to cap a historic campaign with a medal, they may need David to make some of those openings count.
The Lille forward has underperformed his expected goals figures at this tournament, netting once from chances valued at 1.58 xG. No Canada player has attempted more than his seven shots, three of which have hit the target.
Uruguay – Darwin Núñez
Núñez has attempted more shots (20) than any other player at this edition of the Copa America, with his total of 2.59 xG only bettered by Argentina’s Lautaro Martínez (2.91).
While the Liverpool man has two goals to his name, they both came in the group stage, and he has only hit the target with five of his 20 attempts.
Among all players to net at this year’s tournament, only three have a worse shot accuracy than Núñez’s 33% (excluding blocks), but a profitable game here could even put him back in the race for the Golden Boot.
Canada vs Uruguay Prediction
The Opta supercomputer seems fairly certain that Uruguay will win this one, with Bielsa’s men doing so inside 90 minutes in a whopping 70% of simulations.
Canada secure a victory in normal time in 13.2% of sims, while the game went to penalties in the remaining 16.8%.
Canada vs Uruguay Squads
Canada
Dayne St. Clair, Maxime Crépeau, Tom McGill, Alistair Johnston, Alphonso Davies, Derek Cornelius, Joel Waterman, Kamal Miller, Kyle Hiebert, Luc De Fougerolles, Moïse Bombito, Richie Laryea, Ali Ahmed, Ismaël Koné, Jonathan Osorio, Mathieu Choinière, Samuel Piette, Stephen Eustaquio, Cyle Larin, Jacen Russell-Rowe, Jacob Shaffelburg, Jonathan David, Liam Millar, Tajon Buchanan, Tani Oluwaseyi, Theo Bair.
Head coach: Jesse Marsch
Uruguay
Franco Israel, Santiago Mele, Sergio Rochet, Guillermo Varela, José Giménez, Lucas Olaza, Mathías Olivera, Matías Viña, Nicolás Marichal, Ronald Araujo, Sebastián Cáceres, Brian Rodríguez, Emiliano Martínez, Facundo Pellistri, Federico Valverde, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Manuel Ugarte, Maximiliano Araújo, Nahitan Nández, Nicolás de la Cruz, Rodrigo Bentancur, Agustín Canobbio, Brian Ocampo, Cristian Olivera, Darwin Núñez, Luis Suárez.
Head coach: Marcelo Bielsa
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