On what could be his Argentina swansong, will Lionel Messi lift a third international trophy in as many years? We look ahead to Sunday’s Copa America final with our Argentina vs Colombia prediction and preview.
Argentina vs Colombia Stats: The Key Insights
- Argentina are given a 50.9% chance of beating Colombia in 90 minutes by the Opta supercomputer, and a 63.0% chance of lifting the Copa America trophy overall.
- Lionel Messi opened his account at the 2024 tournament on Tuesday and has now scored at six editions of the Copa America (2007, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2021 and 2024).
- James Rodríguez leads all players for chances created at this tournament (17), while his six assists are the most any player has managed at a single edition since Opta data began in 2011, surpassing Messi’s five in 2021.
The stage is set for what could be Lionel Messi’s major tournament swansong, as Argentina face Colombia in Sunday’s Copa America final in the forward’s new home of Miami.
The Hard Rock Stadium is the venue as Messi and La Albiceleste go in search of a record-breaking 16th Copa America crown, currently level with Uruguay on 15. It would also be a second in a row after they overcame old rivals Brazil in the 2021 final.
Standing in their way, however, are arguably the most impressive team at the tournament in Colombia.
Unbeaten in 28 games – a new national record – and led by a rejuvenated James Rodríguez, who is surely the favourite for Player of the Tournament honours, Los Cafeteros downed a much-fancied Uruguay side with 10 men in the last four and are sure to present a stern test.
Argentina, who were given a 30.8% chance of Copa America glory before a ball was kicked by the Opta supercomputer, saw off first-time semi-finalists Canada by a 2-0 scoreline to make Sunday’s showpiece match, with captain Messi joining Julián Álvarez on the scoresheet.
We could witness the end of an era on Sunday, with Messi reportedly contemplating international retirement after the match.
While there are plenty stateside who are desperate to see Messi continue his glittering Argentina career until the 2026 World Cup, the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner said this week he is fighting his “last battles” on the international stage.
Having led Argentina to glory at the 2021 Copa and the 2022 World Cup, Messi could go out on a high by inspiring his country to three straight major tournament successes, a feat they only previously achieved by winning three consecutive Copas in 1945, 1946 and 1947, with the World Cup not held during that time.
It took him a while, but Messi finally got up and running at this year’s Copa America with a goal in Tuesday’s 2-0 semi-final victory over Canada, converting his 12th shot of the tournament.
He has now scored at six different editions of the Copa America, matching the record set by Zizinho all the way back in 1957. Messi has netted at the 2007, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2021 and 2024 editions, only failing to get on the scoresheet in 2011.
His semi-final strike came 17 years and one day after his first Copa America goal, versus Peru in 2007. That gap is the longest between goals for a single player in the tournament’s history, breaking another record previously held by Zizinho (15 years and 52 days between 1942 and 1957).
Another trophy on Sunday would enable him to end what had previously been a disappointing Argentina career with a perfect run of three tournament triumphs, but Colombia may have something to say about that.
Indeed, Nestor Lorenzo’s team have been described by many as the outstanding team at the tournament, having topped Group D ahead of Brazil before beating Uruguay 1-0 in the last four.
Jefferson Lerma’s header proved decisive as Colombia clung on in that match despite playing the second half with 10 men as Daniel Muñoz was sent off for two bookable offences.
Lerma’s goal was Colombia’s fifth to come via a header at this tournament, the most by a team at a single Copa America since Argentina netted six times via that route in 1991, when they lifted the trophy.
Colombia’s aerial prowess has been another string to their bow at a tournament where they have been extremely efficient in attack, scoring a competition-high 12 goals from 8.49 expected goals (xG), a tally that puts them second to Argentina (11.1). Colombia rank just sixth for touches in the penalty area (104) but third for shots from inside the box (59).
Only conceding twice, Lorenzo’s side have also been solid at the back – a recipe for tournament success. Per game, they have averaged a tournament-low 0.51 expected goals against (xGA), as well as 9.6 shots faced (the third-best figure) and 2.2 shots on target faced (second-best).
That solid backline has given skipper Rodríguez and Liverpool’s Luis Díaz the platform from which to make things happen, with the duo ranking third and fourth, respectively, for expected assists (xA) among all players at the competition (1.67 and 1.37 per game).
Rodríguez’s six assists at the 2024 Copa America are the most recorded by a player at a single edition since Opta data collection began in 2011, surpassing Messi’s total of five from the 2021 tournament.
He also leads all players at the competition for chances created with 17, of which 12 have come from set-pieces. With Colombia netting five of their 12 goals – a national record at a single Copa America – from corners or indirect free-kicks, Argentina would be wise to avoid giving up dead balls.
Rodríguez is not the only former Real Madrid man looking to have a say, with Ángel Di María hoping to end his Argentina career with a flourish, even if Lionel Scaloni harbours hopes of persuading him to rethink his decision to retire from international football after the tournament.
Di María scored in the 2021 final versus Brazil and in the 2022 World Cup showpiece against France, and only Rodríguez (17), Nicolás de la Cruz (14) and Messi (13) have bettered his nine chances created at this tournament.
Argentina vs Colombia Head-to-Head
Colombia have only won one of their last 12 meetings with Argentina (five draws, six defeats) – a 2-0 group-stage win at the 2019 Copa America.
The teams’ last draw led to Colombia losing on penalties in the 2021 Copa semi-finals, with Davinson Sánchez, Yerry Mina and Edwin Cardona all unsuccessful from 12 yards.
The teams have met on 15 previous occasions in the Copa America, with Argentina recording seven wins to Colombia’s three and the remaining five being drawn.
While Colombia are competing in their third Copa America final, previously triumphing in 2001 and finishing as 1975 runners-up, Argentina are into a sixth final in their last eight major tournaments. The two exceptions – the 2018 World Cup and 2019 Copa – saw them lose to the eventual champions in France and Brazil.
Argentina vs Colombia Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has backed Argentina all the way at this tournament, and it is still behind them here. They are given a 50.9% chance of victory inside 90 minutes, with Colombia assigned a 25.4% chance of victory.
Extra-time was not in effect in the knockout rounds but could come into play for the final, and the likelihood of the game going the distance – even potentially to penalties – is rated at 23.6%.
Argentina have won their last two Copa America shootouts, against Ecuador in this year’s quarter-finals and Colombia in 2021, but they have lost three of their last four finals at the competition on spot-kicks, versus Brazil in 2004 and Chile in both 2015 and 2016.
Overall, the holders are given a 63% chance of retaining the trophy to Colombia’s 37%.
Argentina vs Colombia Squads
Argentina
Emiliano Martínez, Franco Armani, Gerónimo Rulli, Cristian Romero, Germán Pezzella, Gonzalo Montiel, Lisandro Martínez, Lucas Martínez Quarta, Marcos Acuña, Nahuel Molina, Nicolás Otamendi, Nicolás Tagliafico, Alexis Mac Allister, Ángel Di María, Enzo Fernández, Exequiel Palacios, Giovani Lo Celso, Guido Rodríguez, Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Valentín Carboni, Alejandro Garnacho, Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, Lionel Messi, Nicolás González.
Head coach: Lionel Scaloni
Colombia
Álvaro Montero, Camilo Vargas, David Ospina, Carlos Cuesta, Daniel Muñoz, Davinson Sánchez, Deiver Machado, Jhon Lucumí, Johan Mojica, Santiago Arias, Yerry Mina, James Rodríguez, Jefferson Lerma, Jhon Arias, Jorge Carrascal, Juan Fernando Quintero, Kevin Castaño, Mateus Uribe, Richard Ríos, Yáser Asprilla, Jhon Córdoba, Jhon Durán, Luis Díaz, Luis Sinisterra, Miguel Borja, Rafael Borré.
Head coach: Néstor Lorenzo
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