In our Week 5 fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
Let’s run back a favorite here at Opta Analyst.
As we are about to be a third of the way through the fantasy season, here are five numbers that have defined this fantasy football season so far.
3
That’s how many Las Vegas Raiders wide receivers have more PPR points than Garrett Wilson this season. Davante Adams? Despite the trade request and one fewer game, he’s got more than Wilson. Jakobi Meyers? Yep. Tre Tucker? Unless you’re in a 12- or 14-team league, he’s probably not even rostered. But yes, even he has more points than Wilson.
Sadly, this isn’t to speak positively of the Raiders, but rather, simply highlight what a disappointing start to the season it’s been for someone who was considered a candidate to potentially finish the season as the top wide receiver in fantasy.
56
That’s how many tight ends have run more routes over the last two weeks than Mark Andrews. Read that again, most teams have two tight ends that have run more routes than Andrews. He ran 11 routes in weeks 3 and 4, total!
What have those 11 routes produced? That would be zero catches. In fantasy terms, Mark Andrews, likely in starting lineups in your league, has put up back-to-back goose eggs.
This, coming from a player who averaged 4.9 receptions and 60.6 receiving yards per game over the last five seasons. This, coming from a guy who had zero games during that timespan with fewer than two targets and only three games during that period with fewer than two receptions. This, coming from a star player who during the last five seasons had more games with 89 or more receiving yards than fewer than 30.
It has been an absolutely horrid start to the season for the entire tight end position. Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has more points than Dallas Goedert, the top tight end through four weeks. Five kickers have more points than George Kittle, TE2 through four weeks. And 32 kickers (reminder, there are only 32 teams) have more fantasy points than Andrews.
It can’t get any worse for Andrews, who has scored as many fantasy points as I have since Week 3. But if he doesn’t start running more routes and being more actively involved in the passing game for the Baltimore Ravens, it might not get much better.
6
That’s how many teams are definitively starting a running back that has performed worse than their backup through four weeks.
Well, maybe that number will only be five after New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo said that he and the team are considering starting Antonio Gibson over Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 5. They shouldn’t be the only team. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Detroit Lions and sadly, the Jets, all fall into this category as well.
At least for the Lions, both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are good running backs and fantasy managers can start either one each week. For those other teams, can fantasy managers feel good about starting any of them? Stevenson has fumbled in every game this season. Rachaad White is RB32 and has been outscored by Bucky Irving the last two weeks despite being the starter.
Jaguars’ backup running back Tank Bigsby is averaging 8.19 yards per carry, which would lead the NFL by a significant margin if he had enough rushes through four weeks to qualify. Zamir White? Well, he was one of our yays two weeks ago as the model suspected that even though he hadn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet one was coming. Update, it still hasn’t. Meanwhile, Alexander Mattison has two.
And then there’s Breece Hall. This whole intro could have been five numbers about the woeful start to the season for New York Jets fantasy numbers, but there’s no need to pile on. Only to say that the youngest player in the NFL – Braelon Allen – has been better than the player that was being drafted in the first round of every fantasy draft.
90
That’s how many combined targets Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson have accumulated so far this season for the New York Giants. A common fantasy football strategy is to only draft players from good teams. Another one, particularly as it pertains to wide receivers, is to only draft wide receivers that have good quarterbacks.
But sometimes, the best strategy is to draft a player who is so clearly the top option in an offense that the team has no choice but to force feed him. That would be Nabers, who was being drafted behind players like Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, and Michael Pittman Jr.
Nabers has 52 targets this season, nine more than the next closest player. Robinson has 38, which is tied for fourth! Other players in the top 10 include wide receivers from the Carolina Panthers (Diontae Johnson), Cleveland Browns (Amari Cooper), Denver Broncos (Courtland Sutton), and Chicago Bears (DJ Moore) – all bad offenses.
62.5% of Daniel Jones’ pass attempts have gone in the direction of Nabers and Robinson. As long as this pace keeps up, Nabers is a bona fide WR1 and Robinson is a solid WR2. And in case you’re worried about Jones being the quarterback, at least for Nabers, he’s a superstar. He should be in your lineup every week that he’s healthy.
156
That’s how many passing touchdowns there have been through four weeks. That is, well, awful when compared to recent seasons:
What makes matters even worse is that Sam Darnold leads the NFL in passing touchdowns with 11, but probably hasn’t been in fantasy lineups hardly at all. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes has only played one game so far with more passing touchdowns than interceptions. Brock Purdy has only one game with more than one passing touchdown and of the top 10 quarterbacks in passing touchdowns last season, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen are the only quarterbacks with a single game of more than two passing touchdowns – they each have one such game.
We can only hope as fantasy managers that this number trends up, but sadly, we’re about to hit the bad-weather months and it seems as though there will be more games with teams scoring 20 points and winning. More than ever, it’s imperative that you start players with a higher floor, players that won’t rely on touchdowns every week to provide a worthwhile fantasy output.
But let’s move onto something more positive with our Week 5 Yays.
The Yays: Week 5 Fantasy Players Projected to Overperform Expert Consensus
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Aaron Jones RB (MIN) vs NYJ (ECR: 8, Our Rank: RB1, Projected Points: 22.4)
The former Green Bay running back took a quick skip and a jump over to Minnesota in the offseason and brought his bell cow-carrying abilities with him. We’re starting to see those more now in a Vikings offense that is really finding itself with Darnold playing to – dare we say – an MVP-level. Jones has 80 touches, which is sixth in the league among running backs. Only 12 running backs have more than 70. He might just be the vital cog in this Vikings offense, though Justin Jefferson is still Justin Jefferson.
The Jets are stingy through the air with wide receivers, and that’s why we’re giving Jones a bump both in the passing game and the running game in Week 5. They give up just 100 yards to opposing wide receivers, which is one of the best marks in the league. They give up 102.2 rushing yards, which is higher than the league average of 94.2 yards to opposing running backs.
Jones has at least five targets in each of his last three weeks and has scored a touchdown in two of four weeks so far this season. Jordan Addison is back to ease pressure in the box for Jones, and that’s why we have Jones projected as RB1 this week in PPR formats.
Chuba Hubbard RB (CAR) vs CHI (ECR: 11, Our Rank: RB5, Projected Points: 17.9)
The Carolina Panthers are alive and kicking since the return of Andy Dalton. Their offensive line has always been sneaky good to the point of being one of the best in the league. It was just being hidden behind poor quarterback play and general offensive malaise.
The majority of fantasy owners have now cottoned on to the fact that Hubbard is legit. He has RB4 and RB7 finishes in consecutive weeks with flame-haired Dalton throwing fire from under center. OK, we’re probably overdoing it at this point but the Panthers are competent now and the offensive players have a chance to become fantasy stars. (We trust you’ve been following the Diontae Johnson revival in full color in recent weeks).
The Bears are stingy when it comes to wide receivers and fantasy points – just 20.3 per game, the sixth-best mark in the league. But they do give up 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs and 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backs, which is the ninth-highest figure through four games in the league.
Hubbard gets a bump in the passing game too given just how well the Bears cover opposing wide receivers. It’s full steam ahead in Week 5 for Hubbard as he continues to assert himself as an undervalued fantasy asset.
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR (SF) vs ARI (ECR: 11, Our Rank: WR6, Projected Points: 17.7)
The 49ers lost in consecutive weeks prior to their win over the New England Patriots in Week 4. Deebo missed the Week 3 contest versus the Los Angeles Rams but made it a point to come back against the Patriots regardless of his ailing calf.
The 49ers took a commanding lead and didn’t need to lean on Samuel too heavily in the 30-13 rout. The Cardinals passing defense is not good. They are allowing 151 yards to opposing wide receivers and are also giving up 125 yards to opposing running backs through four games. Expect Deebo to get involved in both the passing and rushing game now that he has had an extra week to recover.
We have him 11 spots higher than consensus (WR6 compared to WR 17).
Cole Kmet TE (CHI) vs CAR (ECR: 12, Our Rank: TE3, Projected Points: 11.1)
The Bears hierarchy assembled a crack lineup of offensive weapons for rookie Caleb Williams heading into the season. We just weren’t sure how those players would share targets, and that made none of them particularly appealing during fantasy draft season.
We are starting to see some semblance of a pattern as to where Williams like to throw the ball as he adjusts to the speed of the NFL.
The Panthers give up 10.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, fourth-most in the league. That helps boost Kmet into the startable TE category. He also has four targets and four receptions in the red zone, which is second on the Bears.
Caleb Williams has been throwing the ball a lot since making his debut as the first overall pick in last year’s draft. Of 133 attempts so far as a pro, he has directed 25 of his throws to tight ends with 20 of those going Kmet’s way. Gerald Everett has seen just five.
Twenty targets is the eighth-most in the league at a position that has seen Travis Kelce disappoint and Mark Andrews rack up consecutive games with zero fantasy points. The fantasy tight end waters are incredibly murky this season at best. Swim with caution, but take comfort in knowing everyone else is swimming with you.
The Nays: Week 5 Fantasy Players Projected to Underperform Expert Consensus
Jayden Daniels QB (WAS) vs CLE (ECR: 3, Our Rank: QB14, Projected Points: 16.5)
This is not a knock on Jayden Daniels, who has been the most impressive rookie signal-caller in the NFL this season. You could scratch ‘rookie’ from that last sentence and it would still be a completely fair statement. Our EVE model, ranking a player’s efficiency vs. expected yards gained, has Daniels as the fourth-best quarterback this season.
We do expect this to be low-scoring affair though. Daniels has been a top-five fantasy quarterback over the last two weeks – finishing third and fifth respectively – but Washington scored 38 and 42 points in those games against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Arizona Cardinals with a flurry of touchdowns for Daniels. The Browns have only given up a shade under 20 points per game in their last three contests.
And the Browns are giving up just 12.3 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. They have not allowed a rushing touchdown by an opposing quarterback and have allowed just three passing touchdowns through four weeks. Daniels is still a rookie and we expect some rough weeks for the 23-year-old. Week 5 versus the Browns figures to to be one of those weeks.
Bucky Irving RB (TB) vs ATL (ECR:26, Our Rank: RB41, Projected Points: 6.3)
The debate over Irving and Rachaad White is a lively one. The consensus is that the rookie will usurp White eventually. This isn’t really the debate we want to get into here. Rather, our model really likes the Falcons’ rush defense. And for that reason, we don’t particularly like any of Tampa Bay’s option at running back in this one.
White has been on the field for 166 snaps to Irving’s 87 so far this season. Irving doesn’t have a game with more than 10 carries yet this season, and while he ramped up his snaps last week, the first three weeks might be a better indicator of how much he will see the field.
Irving saw his highest snap count last week but White also equaled his season-high of 45. White isn’t going anywhere just yet.
Irving’s path to becoming the No. 1 running back in this offense, if that is his fate, will still see some turbulence. Against the Falcons defense, we have him projected to finish as RB41 with just 33.9 yards on the ground and fewer than 10 through the air.
He might be able to save his week with a touchdown, but the Falcons have given up just one touchdown on the ground and zero through the air to opposing running backs so far this season. There are better matchups ahead for Bucky as he looks to supplant White as the Bucs’ leading rusher.
Bijan Robinson RB (ATL) vs TB (ECR: 6, Our Rank: RB14, Projected Points: 14.7)
Bijan Robinson’s snap count has been unsteady this season. He was on the field for 50 snaps in Week 1 and 3 but last week, against the New Orleans Saints, he saw just 36 snaps in a close contest. The Buccaneers are giving up just 87.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. They also haven’t given up a touchdown through the air to an opposing running back this season.
Robinson hasn’t finished inside the top 20 running backs since Week 2. Last week he was RB26 with just 11.4 PPR fantasy points. He was a consensus top-five pick in fantasy drafts before the season, but he is RB20 through four weeks and continues to deliver anywhere between tepid and lukewarm weeks.
It obviously hasn’t been as disappointing as Christian McCaffrey’s season because, well, Bijan has played, but it’s low-key devastating to see Zack Moss, Tony Pollard and Hubbard with more fantasy points than Bijan so far this season. Consider sitting him if your lineup allows this week and hope that things get better.
DK Metcalf WR (SEA) vs NYG (ECR: 6, Our Rank: WR27, Projected Points: 12.7)
Do not expect another shootout like the spectacle we were treated to against the Detroit Lions where Geno Smith threw 56 passes on Monday night. The New York Giants are giving up just 124 passing yards to opposing wide receivers this season and just 21.3 completions per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Metcalf has just three more targets than Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season. And then to muddy the situation in Seattle even further, Tyler Lockett has 26 targets. That’s the most among targets for a wide receiver who is third on the team in targets.
To put that in the simplest terms possible, the gap between Metcalf, Smith-Njigba and Lockett is small. The Seahawks have just five players with more than five targets, so the pool of receiving options in the passing game is highly concentrated. But it’s also quite spread out among those five players. A potential yardage premium against the Giants makes that more difficult to stomach.
Didn’t see the names you were after? Don’t forget to check out our complete fantasy football rankings. Happy exploring. And follow along on Instagram and X.