In our Week 4 fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus. This week before getting to the Yays and Nays, Trevor explores some trade options.
Last week, we talked about how even though we love fantasy football, sometimes it can make us pull our hair out.
But it only makes us go crazy because at its core, fantasy football is a blast. And one of the most fun parts of fantasy football is making trades. The thrill of negotiation, the excitement for your incoming player(s), the fear that your outgoing player(s) are about to explode, there is nothing quite like making trades. Especially, especially, when you trade for a player who is struggling, and they turn things around on your team.
In other words, buy low, sell high. Three weeks into the season, this is the exact right time to do that. Managers that are either 1-2 or 0-3 might be looking to shake things up, and there are inevitably players on other rosters that could potentially become league-winning players.
The following are five players currently outside the top 30 at their position. Five players, who, potentially, could end the season as the critical piece on your championship roster.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs is third in the NFL in rushing attempts. As a team, behind the resurgent Malik Willis while Jordan Love nurses an injury, the Green Bay Packers are first in total rushes, first in rushing yards per game, and second in yards per rush. Jacobs has six carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. He has zero rushing touchdowns.
Entering this season, Jacobs has averaged more than nine rushing touchdowns per season in his career. With a stranglehold on the volume in the Packers offense, the touchdowns are coming.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There are 39 players through three weeks with at least 25 rushing attempts. Irving ranks third – behind only JK Dobbins and Lamar Jackson – with 6.16 yards per carry. Rachaad White ranks 38th, averaging a putrid 2.13 yards per carry. Furthermore, 16% of Irving’s carries so far this season have gone for at least 10 yards, fifth among those 39 running backs. White ranks 34th, and only has one carry this season of 10+ yards.
What makes this situation most interesting is that White was 40th among 48 qualified running backs in yards per carry in 2023 and 43rd out of 46 in 2022. If the Buccaneers eventually decide to give more snaps to the more productive player, Irving has a chance to win the starting job and run with it.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving’s teammate on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is on here for an entirely different reason. Irving is an up-and-coming rookie. Evans is now in the middle of his 11th season in the NFL. If Irving has a chance to climb the depth chart by outperforming White, Evans has been the model of elite consistency his entire career.
Have you ever thought of Evans as a top-five receiver in a single season? It’s a good bet that the answer to that question is no. But it’s also a good bet if you follow football with any regularity that you also know that in his 10 previous seasons, Evans has recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards in all of them. He’s done that while also averaging 9.4 receiving touchdowns per season.
He finished Week 2 as WR49. Last week, he finished the week as WR84. There’s a good chance he’s on the bench of whichever manager owns him in your league. Trust his track record. There are 62 players with at least 15 targets this season. Evans’ 80.0 burn percentage ranks third. He’s going to be fine.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
In weeks 4, 5 and 8 last season (Dell missed Week 6 and the Texans’ bye was Week 7), Dell had a combined seven catches for 89 yards and zero touchdowns. Through the first three weeks of this season, Dell has nine catches for 99 yards and zero touchdowns.
In the next four games after that slow stretch in 2023, Dell had 25 receptions, 369 yards and five touchdowns and finished that little mini stretch as the WR3. So what makes Dell a buy low? He dropped a potential 70-yard touchdown pass last week, and as he gets further and further away from the broken leg that ended his 2023 season, chances are he begins to make those types of dynamic plays.
It’s looking more and more likely that Dell won’t even play this week, but there aren’t many players who could conceivably become a must-start for you come playoff time who will cost as little as Dell will right now.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Especially in recent years, it has been fairly obvious early into a season whether a rookie wide receiver has “it” or not. The eye test suggests that Thomas has it, and the data agrees. There are 37 wide receivers with at least 85 routes run this season. Thomas’ 88.2 open percentage is behind only fellow LSU alum Ja’Marr Chase, and his burn percentage of 76.5% is behind only Garrett Wilson.
He has the same number of targets through three weeks as Christian Kirk and one more than Gabe Davis. But as he and Lawrence develop a stronger and stronger rapport as the season goes along, he has a chance to be another great fantasy rookie wide receiver.
The Yays: Week 4 Fantasy Players Projected to Overperform Expert Consensus
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC) vs LAC (ECR: 9, Our Rank: QB4, Projected Points: 19.52)
It’s not often there comes a time in any season when our model has a chance to be significantly higher on perhaps the game’s best player than the industry. But that moment has arrived this week.
There have been 27 instances of a quarterback scoring at least 17.5 fantasy points in a game this season – a list that includes Justin Fields, Bo Nix and Daniel Jones (twice!). Not Mahomes, however.
He has yet to finish a week as anything better than QB14, and despite his standing as the game’s best quarterback, the industry is very much reflecting a quarterback who is maybe no longer among fantasy’s elite options.
But our model has no such concerns. In his career against the Los Angeles Chargers, Mahomes averages 281.5 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. Facing a defense without Derwin James, Mahomes is second in projected passing yards and first in projected touchdowns. As much as there can be a “get right” game for a 3-0 team, this might be it. He’s a top-five play this week.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB (WSH) vs ARI (ECR: 14, Our Rank: RB6, PP: 18.05)
Boy, that Monday night performance from the Washington Commanders was fun, wasn’t it? It was certainly a dream for fantasy managers, the first game since 1940 without a punt or a turnover. Robinson only finished last week as RB25, but his compatriot in the backfield, Austin Ekeler, finished the week as RB16.
Washington Commanders running backs have 59 rushing attempts through three games. Robinson has 45, Ekeler has 13 and Jeremy McNichols has one. Have we mentioned that Ekeler is out for this game?
Of all the games on the Week 4 slate, this is the one with the best chance of being a shootout. Robinson is easily inside our model’s top 10 running backs on the strength of a very friendly matchup and the potential for a large amount of volume.
Diontae Johnson, WR (CAR) vs CIN (ECR: 16, Our Rank: WR5, PP: 18.53)
Holy Andy Dalton! Welcome back! And from Diontae Johnson fantasy managers, thank you! Johnson, through two weeks with Bryce Young at QB, had five catches for 34 yards. Johnson, with the Red Rifle at QB in Week 3, had 14 targets and eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown.
Just like with Juaun Jennings last week, the situation is perfect for Johnson, and the industry hasn’t quite caught up to his level of production. With a competent QB, a second wide receiver (Adam Thielen) hurt, and a matchup against a solid offense – and against Dalton’s former team – Johnson is poised for a second straight week as a top five wide receiver.
As an aside, Juaun Jennings is again valued way too low by the industry. Play him! Brock Purdy clearly trusts him and while he likely won’t replicate his career-best performance from last week, he maintains a valuable role in an offense that is second in the NFL in passing yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (SEA) vs DET (ECR: 25, Our Rank: WR12, PP: 15.90)
For the first time all year, it isn’t DK Metcalf who leads our model’s projection of Seattle Seahawks wide receivers. It’s Smith-Njigba. Sure, he only had three receptions last week, but the underlying data for Smith-Njigba is projecting a huge breakout game and season.
At the basic level, he is on the field for roughly 95% of the Seahawks snaps so far this season. And if you like deep analysis, the more you play, the better your chances of producing! On his routes, he is winning 46.29% of the time and based on where he lines up and his success against man and zone, our model expects him to receive roughly 28% of the targets from Geno Smith, slightly higher than Metcalf’s 25.2%.
Furthermore, it’s a great matchup for Smith-Njigba. Because the Detroit Lions play a lot of man coverage, and in particular 2-man (which in simple terms means the outside receivers are getting double teamed), he will have a lot of snaps with single coverage, which as we mentioned in the paragraph before, he wins nearly 50% of the time.
All told, in a game between two fun offenses, our model thinks it’s more likely that Smith-Njiba produces something closer to his Week 2 performance than his Week 3 performance. He’s a strong option this week with the chance of providing WR1-type value.
The Nays: Week 4 Fantasy Players Projected to Underperform Expert Consensus
Derek Carr, QB (NO) vs ATL (ECR: 18, Our Rank: QB29, PP: 12.98)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. In most instances, it takes more than two games to significantly sway our model that certain long-term historical trends should be changed. That’s why, despite his scorching hot start to the season, Carr was our QB23 last week.
And even then, he still couldn’t live up to the billing, finishing the week as QB29. Which is exactly where we have him this week. It’s simple, really. Through three weeks, Carr has only attempted 64 passes – Alvin Kamara has 61 rush attempts. Carr averages fewer than 200 passing yards per game and he’s got four rushing yards combined over the last two weeks.
This week, against an Atlanta Falcons secondary that has allowed the second fewest passing plays of 20+ yards (a New Orleans Saints specialty) and is 10th in yards allowed per play, Carr is better left on either the bench or even the waiver wire.
James Conner, RB (ARI) vs WSH (ECR: 8, Our Rank: RB21, PP: 14.48)
More than a bet against James Conner, this is the model hedging against the Washington Commanders secondary.
In Week 1, Mike Evans had five receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns (Chris Godwin had eight receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown). In Week 2, Malik Nabers had 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. In Week 3, it was Ja’Marr Chase’s turn, with six receptions for 118 yards and two touchdowns. So it would make all the sense in the world that Marvin Harrison Jr. enters this week as our model’s WR4.
And of course, it’s worrying that Conner in Week 3 only had nine carries for 17 yards. All in all, Conner falls in as a TD-dependent RB2 this week.
Tyreek Hill, WR (MIA) vs TEN (ECR: 22, Our Rank: WR30, PP: 12.77)
Avert your eyes, Tyreek Hill fantasy managers. More than maybe any player since we introduced our Yays and Nays over three years ago, this is a bet against surrounding talent than it is against the player.
Just look at this again, Tyreek Hill is 30th (!!) in our rankings this week. He had three catches for 24 yards in Week 2 and followed it up with three catches for 40 yards in Week 3. Unfortunately for Hill, this is not the greatest week to potentially turn things around.
For starters, the Miami Dolphins might start their third quarterback in as many games. Maybe just as critically, Hill faces L’Jarius Sneed and the Tennessee Titans defense this week. If you recall last year’s playoffs, Sneed and the Chiefs held Hill to five receptions for 62 yards. It will be almost impossible to not start him this week if you have him, but expectations should be tempered.
Brock Bowers, TE (LV) vs CLE (ECR: 1, Our Rank: TE13, PP: 8.32)
There’s a lot that isn’t going right for the Cleveland Browns this season, but one thing they do well is defend the middle of the field, especially tight ends. Through three weeks, tight ends only have nine receptions against them.
There’s a lot that isn’t going right for the Las Vegas Raiders this season, but one thing they do have is a potentially game-breaking tight end. Heck, they’re coming off getting blown out by the Carolina Panthers and their head coach is already calling them out in the media.
This is a best-on-best type of game and while Bowers has immense potential, the model expects this to be a Davante Adams game (WR8). Bowers finished last week as TE17, with 7.1 PPR points and while he’s likely the best tight end on your roster if you have him, the model is pessimistic about his chances of producing enough value unless he can find his way into the end zone.
Didn’t see the names you were after? Don’t forget to check out our complete fantasy football rankings. Happy exploring. And follow along on Instagram and X.