While the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs received top billing in the NFL’s Kickoff Game on Thursday night, all eyes will turn toward South America on Friday night for a matchup of NFC contenders.
The Philadelphia Eagles will be looking to erase the memory of a bitter ending to 2023 when they kickoff the season against the Green Bay Packers in the NFL’s first game at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil (on NBC’s Peacock).
While both the Packers and Eagles have playoff expectations as they begin new campaigns, the teams followed opposite paths in 2023.
Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance to end the 2022 season, the Eagles opened last year 10-1 but dropped five of their last six games and were eliminated from the playoffs with a 32-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round.
In the offseason, multiple media outlets reported a strained relationship between quarterback Jalen Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni, with the pair reportedly having different visions for Philadelphia’s offense.
The Athletic reported more recently that Hurts, who finished second in the 2022 NFL MVP voting to Patrick Mahomes, and Sirianni have improved their relationship and communications, and the whole team is surely eager to prove that last season’s late collapse was a fluke.
The Packers’ 2023 season followed a different arc. After Aaron Rodgers moved on to the New York Jets, the Jordan Love era got off to a rocky start, with Green Bay opening 2-5 and Love turning in a series of inconsistent performances.
The Packers rallied in the second half of the season to finish 9-8, and Love gelled with a young corps of receivers down the stretch, throwing 18 touchdowns to just one interception over the last eight games of the regular season.
QB Rating – Weeks 11-18, 2023
- Brock Purdy, SF (117.0)
- Jordan Love, GB (112.7)
- Derek Carr, NO (110.1)
- Lamar Jackson, BAL (109.8)
- Dak Prescott, DAL (106.7)
Green Bay stunned the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 in the wild-card round of the postseason before a heartbreaking 24-21 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
With Love entering his second year as a starter, the Packers have become a trendy pick to emerge as an NFC title contender. Our projection model is buying into the hype, forecasting an average of 9.6 wins. Only the 49ers’ 11.3 projected wins is higher in the NFC.
In their season opener, however, the Eagles are favored both by our projection model and in the NFL betting markets.
Philadelphia opened in most sportsbooks as 1.5-point favorites for Friday, with the line moving to 2.5 points by midweek. Our model also tabs the Eagles as the best bets, giving them a 58.3% chance of starting NFL Week 1 with a victory.
Philadelphia’s Key: Handle the Blitz
Despite the reported coach-quarterback disconnect, the offense ranked seventh in the NFL with an overall success rate of 41.5% and ninth in offensive EVE last season. After a season of headline-grabbing offseason moves, Philadelphia will look to once again be among the league’s best offenses.
With Hurts already having a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, the ground game could expand with the acquisition of ex-New York Giants star running back Saquon Barkley.
Once considered a game-changing weapon at running back, Barkley had a lackluster 2023, albeit on a Giants offense with few other threats. He totaled 1,242 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns in 14 games but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry.
With a better supporting cast in Philadelphia, however, Barkley is likely to get more space to operate in 2024. Barkley averaged 2.2 yards before contact last season, well below the league average of 2.5 yards.
The Eagles, however, boast one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, even with the retirement of seven-time Pro Bowl center Jason Kelce, and Hurts’ running threat helps keep defenders honest. Philadelphia’s runners gained 2.9 yards per carry before contact last year, ranking sixth in the league.
Barkley and the rest of the rushing game will be key as the Eagles try to put Hurts in position to succeed with balance.
Although Philadelphia’s passing game can be lethal, opposing teams increasingly blitzed Hurts late in the season.
Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, Hurts ranked 27th with a 76.2 passer rating against the blitz. His eight interceptions thrown against the blitz were the most in the league.
The Packers blitzed on 28.5% of snaps last season, just under the league average of 30.1. However, new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley could bring a new philosophy.
If Hurts is protected and remains composed against pressure defenses, the Eagles could generate big plays through the air.
The Packers ranked 29th in pass success rate allowed last season at 43.0%, and Philly’s wide receivers are among the most dangerous in the league.
Brown has become a top-tier receiver, compiling nearly 3,000 yards in his two seasons with the Eagles. He had 106 catches and ranked fifth among qualified receivers at 3.6 burn yards per route last season.
Smith didn’t see the ball as much as Brown but was efficient with his opportunities and totaled 81 receptions last season. He ranked fourth in the league at 13.85 burn yards per target.
Over the last two seasons, Brown ranks second in the NFL with 33 receptions for at least 25 yards. Smith is tied for 18th with 20 big-play catches. If Hurts and the offensive line can hold up against the blitz, there should be big plays available in the passing game.
Eagles Player Projections
- Jalen Hurts: 21.1 of 32.1 for 231.5 yards with 1.3 TDs and 0.5 INTs; 46.9 rushing yards with 0.6 rushing TDs
- Saquon Barkely: 17.5 rushes for 75.3 yards with 0.7 touchdowns
- A.J. Brown: 5.7 receptions for 71.3 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
- Devonta Smith: 4.4 receptions for 64.5 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
- Dallas Goedert: 4.3 receptions for 39.1 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Green Bay’s Key: Set up Play Action
The Packers showed loads of promise in their strong end to last season, and they still have the youngest active roster in the league (averaging 25 years and 148 days old).
While it feels like everything is pointing in the right direction for the Packers, it can be easy to forget that progression is not always linear. Love is still inexperienced and received a four-year, $220-million contract extension largely due to a lone 10-game stretch.
Still, Love’s improvement was remarkable, and the Packers have most of their weapons returning. The key personnel difference entering this season was replacing running back Aaron Jones – who signed with the rival Minnesota Vikings – with Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs finds himself in almost the exact same spot as Barkley – coming off a subpar year but joining a much better offense unit that could open up opportunities. He won the 2022 rushing title with 1,653 yards and does offer some versatility with 197 catches in five NFL seasons.
Packers Player Projections
- Jordan Love: 22.2 of 35.8 for 258.9 yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.8 INTs
- Josh Jacobs: 17.3 rushes for 69.5 yards with 0.7 touchdowns
- Romeo Doubs: 3.2 receptions for 44.3 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
- Christian Watson: 2.6 receptions for 36.6 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
- Jayden Reed: 3.8 receptions for 43.8 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
While Jacobs will be playing behind a better offensive line and with a much more talented offense in general, he will need to improve on his 1.56 yards after contact, which was the fourth-worst average among running backs with at least 150 carries.
A.J. Dillion has been placed on season-ending injured reserve with a neck issue, so Jacobs should get a massive workload, with MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson occasionally spelling him.
Philly’s opponents enjoyed a 40.1% success rate on called runs last season, the third-highest rate in the league, and the Eagles’ 2.8 yards per carry before contact allowed last season was the sixth-worst mark.
Green Bay was one of the best ball control teams last season, and Jacobs could help the Packers keep the ball away from the Eagles’ explosive offense.
If the underdog Packers can establish the run, Love could have some room to throw on play-action pass attempts.
Love threw 89 passes last season after a hard run fake, the second most in the NFL. He completed 75.3% of his play-action attempts, fourth among quarterbacks with at least 25 play-action attempts.
With Green Bay’s top four receivers – Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks – all 25 or younger, there were some communication issues early last season. But as the 2023 campaign progressed, the Packers established an identity as a big-play passing offense.
Love averaged 8.68 air yards per attempt last year, the fifth highest among quarterbacks who threw at least 250 passes, and Green Bay’s offense transformed into one of the most explosive units in the league.
Plays of 20+ Yards – Last Eight Games of 2023
- San Francisco 49ers (43)
- Minnesota Vikings (40)
- Green Bay Packers (37)
- Baltimore Ravens (36)
- Detroit Lions (36)
If the Packers can stay balanced on offense and win time of possession, Love could generate some deep shots out of play action later in the game.
With both defenses looking to bounce back from disappointing seasons in 2023, the Packers and Eagles could put on a fireworks show in the NFL’s inaugural Brazil game.
If Philadelphia can handle the blitz, it could be flying high after Week 1. But if Green Bay is able to control the clock, last year’s hot finish could translate to a 1-0 start in 2024.
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