It’s staggering to think about how many people will be sitting down to do their fantasy football draft this coming weekend.
And if you’re reading this, there’s a very good chance that you’re one of those individuals and you need to know the best players to draft.
Every year, there are unexpected first-year players who help push fantasy teams to victories. But identifying them is the difficult part.
With that in mind, here are my top rookies to target as you move throughout your draft. As always, the data has lended a hand.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
It’s becoming more and more of a common occurrence that a rookie wide receiver enters the NFL and contributes right away. Players like Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, and others have bucked the trend of rookies needing a few years to adjust before they can be viewed as top-tier fantasy assets.
Harrison should be the next player to make a high-level impact right out of the gate after tying for third in the nation with 14 touchdowns and ranking third in burn yards per route (4.7) among those with at least 30 targets at Ohio State in 2023.
As a top-five 2024 NFL Draft pick, plus being connected to Kyler Murray, Harrison should probably top the fantasy rookie rankings. With his route-running acumen, plus size and speed combination, he’s going to be a nightmare for NFL DBs from Day 1.
The one downside to Harrison in 2024 from a fantasy standpoint is that he’s already being priced as a high-level option in ADP (average draft position) whether it’s standard, PPR or half-PPR leagues or as a dynasty rookie selection.
Fantasy managers may need to be prepared to draft him as a top-12 WR, which is getting dangerously close to the point where I may think twice. Our fantasy model also thinks that’s a steep price for the rookie. Entering the season, we’ve got him at WR23. That may seem low until you see the names he’s immediately behind: Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave. But he’s absolutely a name to watch out for when you’re on the clock in the early rounds if he falls just a bit.
WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants
It’s hard to find a player in the NFL that has as much juice as Nabers. His burst off the line of scrimmage and top-end speed is truly something to behold, and he has all the makings of a future NFL superstar.
He racked up 89 receptions at LSU last year (tied for 11th in the country) and ranked eighth in burn percentage (73.1) among draft-eligible receivers with at least 30 targets in 2023.
The issue that Nabers faces is a big one though from a fantasy standpoint — his QB is Daniel Jones. We’ve seen Jones play at a high level before, yes, but that one season was more of an outlier over the course of his NFL career versus what I believe to be the norm.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Nabers is going to be targeted at an insane rate in 2024, but the quality of those targets may prohibit the rookie WR from being a top-12 WR.
With that being said, Nabers isn’t being drafted as a top-12 WR. He’s not even being drafted in the top 20 on most fantasy platforms, which is more in line with where our model sees him (WR24, just behind Harrison). This means that he’s worth taking the chance on due to his talent level and volume as a low-end WR2 for your roster.
WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
There’s a strong possibility that the Chargers have the weakest WR room in the NFL after a quiet offseason. Headlined by Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis, there’s a real opportunity for a rookie to step up and command a ridiculous amount of targets in 2024.
Enter one of the smoothest route runners to come out of the draft in McConkey. While the production wasn’t comparable to some of the top names in the class, the Georgia product’s film shows he has excellent hands and is able to create separation at all three levels of the field.
The concern is that a Jim Harbaugh offense is going to keep the ball on the ground, but someone has to slot in and consume targets in this offense after an exodus at the position. Slot perhaps being the key word with Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen no longer in town to occupy the slot role, so McConkey could easily inherit over 100 targets this season from one of the better QBs in the league in Justin Herbert.
Injuries are something to be aware of with McConkey, but that’s being taken into account with his draft cost. If he’s available in the eighth or ninth round, he’s an automatic selection every time.
RB Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
This year’s incoming rookie RB class wasn’t considered a star-studded unit, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t players ready to make an immediate impact in Year 1.
Davis, a former Kentucky RB, bounced around a few SEC schools before finding his home as a Wildcat. Now every fantasy manager should become very familiar with his name due to his talent and his landing spot with the Bills.
Davis was selected behind Trey Benson (Cardinals), Jonathon Brooks (Carolina Panthers), Blake Corum (Los Angeles Rams), MarShawn Lloyd (Green Bay Packers), Jaylen Wright (Miami Dolphins), Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Will Shipley (Philadelphia Eagles), but he fits exactly what Buffalo has been looking for in a red zone running back.
James Cook is a good player and he provides a spark in between the 20-yard lines, but his lack of size and power prohibits him from being used as a true three-down option.
The Bills have trotted out the likes of Latavius Murray and Leonard Fournette in the twilights of their careers recently in an attempt to find a good pairing with Josh Allen when the field condenses and they need to punch the ball in near the goal line. It hasn’t exactly worked the way they want it, but Davis provides the team with that skill set, plus much more.
He isn’t afraid to run through a defender at the second level of the field, but he combines that power with impressive speed and elusiveness. Tack on his ability as a route runner and receiving threat out of the backfield (on a team that no longer has top target Stefon Diggs) and it won’t be long before Davis is a regular part of the backfield rotation.
It may take a couple of weeks, so don’t immediately panic and drop him if you do draft him, but Davis is poised to be a key part of fantasy lineups at some point in 2024.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots
If it weren’t for the fact that this WR class was unbelievably stacked, we may be talking about Polk in a completely different light.
Those who went ahead of him included Harrison, Rome Odunze to the Bears, Brian Thomas Jr. to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Xavier Worthy to the Kansas City Chiefs, Ricky Pearsall to the San Francisco 49ers, Xavier Legette of the Panthers, Keon Coleman to the Bills and McConkey during the early run on wideouts.
So Polk will be labeled a second-round pick, but he went just five picks outside of the first round, and he could have gone a lot higher if it weren’t for the talent above him. Polk isn’t the most flashy player and he’s not going to put up an insane highlight reel by the end of the season, but he’s incredibly consistent and he should be a QB’s best friend right away.
While playing with Michael Penix Jr. and Odunze, Polk finished his final season at Washington with nine contested catches – tied for second (with Luke McCaffrey and Bub Means) among the drafted players who are now NFL rookie wide receivers.
With Polk essentially walking into the WR1 role in New England given how little competition there is, he should be a reliable Flex option for fantasy rosters. As he acclimates to the NFL level more and develops more chemistry with whoever is throwing him the ball (potentially fellow rookie Drake Maye at some point, though it’ll be Jacoby Brissett to start the season), he could begin steadily climbing the rankings week after week.
The rookie WR is an absolute sleeper right now and he’s one of my favorite selections in the final rounds.
Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!