Week 1 is here after we already saw one major upset in Week 0. So we’re breaking down the biggest games and revealing our TRACR college football predictions for the top 25.
The first week of the 2024 college football season lacks schedule depth, with most power conference teams facing either Group of Five or FCS opponents.
But the slate has headlines at the top.
A week after Georgia Tech stunned No. 10 Florida State in Ireland in a “Week 0” meeting, the season starts in earnest between Thursday and Sunday. The slate has three ranked-versus-ranked games, and blessedly for all of us, those FBS matchups are spread across three different viewing windows.
Here’s how Opta Analyst’s TRACR model sees the biggest college football games of Week 1 – plus, a few themes to look out for in these season-opening blockbusters. TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency metric that evaluates how well a team performs based on who it plays.
The model is based on an EPA (expected points added) calculation weighed by who teams play. A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team in the FBS. So let”s say TCU has a TRACR of 14.0 and Indiana is at 0.0. If they played each other at a neutral site, the most likely outcome would be TCU winning by 14 points.
No. 20 (TRACR) Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia (Atlanta), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC
Three years ago, Clemson and Georgia played a season-opening game at a neutral site in Charlotte. Things were different then. Clemson still seemed like one of the elite programs in the sport, Georgia hadn’t yet won its two national championships under Kirby Smart, and the Tigers were 3.0-point favorites.
Georgia won 10-3 that night, launching itself toward Smart’s first College Football Playoff title and continuing a Clemson decline that has yet to reverse. The feeling this year, with the Bulldogs favored by 13.5, is a lot different.
Clemson’s defense should be strong. The Tigers’ most significant questions are on offense, particularly at wide receiver. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has upside and wasn’t bad last year, but he didn’t stage a breakout. That had a lot to do with Clemson’s lack of downfield playmaking.
The team’s most-targeted pass catcher was tight end Jake Briningstool, who was sure-handed (just two drops on 75 targets) but not explosive or great at getting separation (a very low 64% open rate on his targets and an even lower 45.3% burn rate).
Briningstool is back, as is No. 1 receiver Tyler Brown. But Clemson’s only wideout who was good at roasting defensive backs, Beaux Collins, was inconsistent and transferred to Notre Dame. The Tigers will rely heavily on two depth wideouts, Adam Randall and Antonio Williams, to play well in bigger roles. Neither got more than 3.0 targets per game last year. How will they do in the spotlight against a UGA secondary that’s sure to be one of the sport’s best?
Georgia, No. 1 in our TRACR rankings and No. 1 in defensive TRACR (D-TRACR) entering the season, has an embarrassment of riches. Figuring out a weakness for the Dawgs is hard.
Here’s something to keep track of, though: While UGA returns four of five starting offensive linemen, the one replacement is at center. The Dawgs lost first-team All-American Sedrick Van Pran to the NFL, and his replacement, redshirt junior Jared Wilson, will not get a honeymoon period.
In Wilson’s first start, he’ll be face-to-face with dominant Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods. Last year, Woods’ 32.7% run disruption rate was by far the highest mark of any regular defensive lineman on either of these teams. If you want a hint of how good Georgia’s offense can be this year, keep track of how Wilson, the lone newbie on UGA’s line, does against the best defensive tackle he’ll face all season.
TRACR’s Win Probability: Georgia 80.9%
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 9 Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC
The Aggies are rebuilding under first-year coach Mike Elko, but only a little. Elko inherited a talented roster from the fired Jimbo Fisher, even accounting for a handful of transfer portal defections.
Elko’s previous rapid turnaround at Duke in the ACC invites hopes that he’ll rev up the Aggies quickly. He’ll get a big chance in his debut game against a clear CFP contender. The Aggies are 2.5-point favorites at Kyle Field, driving home the point that Elko is expected to produce a pretty good team right away.
The A&M defense could be great right away (27th in D-TRACR). Defensive tackle Shemar Turner is a second-team all-SEC preseason pick after posting very strong pass-rushing (17.3% pressure rate) and run-stopping (13.7% run disruption rate) numbers last year.
Edge defender Nic Scourton arrives from Purdue, where he created a 22.1% pressure rate on 140 pass-rushing snaps last season. That was 11th in the Big Ten, and Scourton was only a sophomore. Now he’ll join a better defense.
This is a matchup between offenses with potential (both rank in the top 10 in offensive TRACR). But Notre Dame confronts an unusual question: Will its offensive line hold up? The Irish have long been one of college football’s model developmental programs for linemen. To that point, last year’s starting tackles, Joe Alt and Blake Fisher, went fifth and 59th in the last NFL Draft.
The player expected to replace Alt at left tackle, Charles Jagusah, got hurt in fall camp and will miss the season. The Irish have legitimate uncertainty at both tackle spots – never a good thing, but especially scary when your Week 1 matchup is a defensive front as talented as the Aggies’.
We may know within a few quarters whether Notre Dame has the offensive line to be considered a real title contender. Either way, it’ll be fun to watch Duke transfer Riley Leonard working against Elko, his old head coach.
TRACR’s Win Probability: Notre Dame 51.3%
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 18 USC (Las Vegas), 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday, ABC
Most of the talk around USC will center on new quarterback Miller Moss, the former backup who replaces Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams. But that conversation misses an obvious point: USC’s offense will always be fine as long as Lincoln Riley is around.
Moss was impressive in a Holiday Bowl win to cap last year’s disappointing campaign, but the main reason to believe in him is that Riley would not go into a season with a QB he didn’t believe in. The next Riley quarterback who isn’t very good will be the first. We can safely assume that the Trojans will score a lot of points.
It’s all about the defense, though. Riley finally cleaned house on his defensive staff after another humiliating display on that side of the ball in 2023. Coordinator Alex Grinch is out, and a new staff led by former UCLA coordinator D’Anton Lynn and North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz is in.
It may take some time for the USC defense to gel, but one player worth watching right away is middle linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold. The Oregon State transfer was first-team All-Pac-12 last year and then joined the exodus from the Beavers after realignment left the program stranded.
USC has suffered from lousy linebacker play so far under Riley, but Mascarenas-Arnold is a ray of hope. His 13.3% run disruption rate and 26.8% pressure rate on limited pass-rushing snaps made him one of the country’s most well-rounded linebackers last year. The Trojans are ranked a not-too-shabby 17th in D-TRACR against the pass heading into the season.
The LSU story, meanwhile, really should be all about the QB. Garrett Nussmeier, a former blue-chip prospect, takes over for Heisman winner Jayden Daniels in Louisiana. Nussmeier will not replicate anything close to Daniels’ production as a runner, but he did a nice Daniels impression as a passer in limited reps last season. Most encouraging, he took good care of the ball, throwing just one “pickable pass” on 75 attempts.
Nussmeier is in his fourth season with the program, and Brian Kelly will bank on the QB not requiring much of an adjustment period to keep LSU competitive. Our model points to him being right, with the Tigers ranking second in O-TRACR heading into the season.
TRACR’s Win Probability: LSU 63.4%
The Rest of TRACR’s College Football Picks for Week 1
- TRACR No. 2 Oregon 99.1% (win probability) over FCS No. 7 Idaho
- No. 3 Texas 90.4% over No. 91 Colorado State
- No. 4 Alabama 89.1% over No. 73 Western Kentucky
- No. 6 Ohio State 96.7% over No. 122 Akron
- No. 8 Penn State 62.1% over No. 22 West Virginia
- No. 10 Ole Miss 99.1% over FCS No. 12 Furman
- No. 11 Kansas 98.2% over Lindenwood
- No. 12 Michigan 79.6% over No. 59 Fresno State
- No. 13 Missouri 98.7% over Murray State
- No. 14 Miami (FL) 53.3% over No. 23 Florida
- No. 15 Tennessee 97.8% over FCS No. 9 Chattanooga
- No. 16 Oklahoma 97.4% over No. 128 Temple (Friday)
- No. 17 Arizona 97.6% over No. 133 New Mexico
- No. 19 Kansas State 98.1% over UT Martin
- No. 21 Auburn 98.3% over Alabama A&M
- No. 24 Oregon State 98.4% over Idaho State
- No. 25 Louisville 97.4% over Austin Peay
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