With the help of our TRACR rankings, we’ve identified the best teams that were forced to miss out on the College Football Playoff during the four-team era. Those with a favorite team on this list can only think about what might have been.
Among the many ramifications of college football’s new 12-team playoff is this: it’s going to be much harder for a truly elite team to miss out on the bracket.
A team that is among the nation’s most talented, but slips up and loses two or three games, still will likely have a chance to compete for a championship when January comes around.
To a point, we can (and should) mourn the reduction in regular season intensity that will result from this. But after that point, we can look back and reminisce about the four-team era. Below, we rank the best teams to miss out on the College Football Playoff from 2014-23.
One disclaimer: The specific goal here is to target the “best” instead of the “most deserving.” If it was the latter, the undefeated 2023 Florida State team would inarguably be the top choice. But as it pertains to the former, we give a significant focus to each team’s personnel and predictive metrics, in addition to evaluating what they had done to that point of the season.
In other words, the below rankings are the teams you look at and think “man, those guys were going to win it if they got in,” rather than “this team had an awesome regular season, they deserve a shot to compete.”
Without further ado, here are the six best teams that barely missed on CFP action in the four-team era.
1. Ohio State, 2015
Take a look at this roster, and you won’t believe that the Buckeyes missed out on the playoff. They had 10 players taken in the first three rounds of the 2016 NFL Draft, tied with LSU in 2020 for the most in the common draft era (since 1967).
Five of those 10 were first-rounders, which is one shy of the record: Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliott, Eli Apple, Taylor Decker and Darron Lee. Combine this with the fact that they were the defending CFP champions, despite starting third-string QB Cardale Jones during that postseason run, and it seems impossible that the gang didn’t reach the CFP a second straight time.
How did it happen? All it took was one stunning loss to a scrappy Michigan State team playing without starting QB Connor Cook. The Spartans managed to shut down J.T. Barrett and the Ohio State offense, holding it to 132 total yards and five first downs in a 17-14 win capped by a memorable field goal celebration.
In a lot of other years, having one close loss as a Power Five team would’ve been enough to get in. But after 11-1 Michigan State took down undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten title game, and Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma all also finished as conference champions with one or fewer losses, the 11-1 Buckeyes were left out.
2. Alabama, 2019
For much of the 2018 season – Tua Tagovailoa’s first as the starting QB – Alabama was in the realistic conversation for the best college team of all time, until the Crimson Tide fell to Clemson in that year’s national championship.
And then, for much of the 2019 season, it seemed that Alabama was even better.
Led by Tagovailoa and the “Ryde Outs” (wide receivers DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle), who all returned from the 2018 team, the Crimson Tide offense was on another level. The team averaged a ridiculous 47.2 points per game, and as a matter of fact, Tagovailoa ended up finishing the 2019 season with a 206.9 pass efficiency rating (the FBS record at the time, minimum 250 attempts).
The Crimson Tide fell to eventual national champion LSU 46-41 in one of the greatest regular season games in college football history. The two teams combined for 1,100 total yards, but Alabama lost the turnover battle in an all-time shootout against Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and company.
Tagovailoa suffered a hip fracture in the Crimson Tide’s next game, but Alabama still had a very strong chance to make the CFP with Mac Jones before falling to Auburn 48-45 in one of the wildest Iron Bowls you’ll ever see. Jones would lead Alabama to the ensuing season’s championship, though.
3. Ohio State, 2023
Because none of the players from this team have played an NFL game yet, it’s unfair to hold this squad’s future professional production to the same standards as teams like 2015 Ohio State or 2019 Alabama. But as it pertains to how good a team looked at the college level, it’s just about impossible for a team to stack up with the 2023 Buckeyes and still miss the CFP.
Marvin Harrison Jr. made big-time plays all season on offense, and the defense allowed 17 points or fewer in each of the team’s first 11 games, including top-10 wins over Notre Dame and Penn State.
This led Ohio State into a showdown at The Big House against fellow 11-0 Michigan, in one of the most anticipated contests in the history of “The Game.” In a game that was an absolute coin flip, the Buckeyes won the yardage battle but had two turnovers in a 30-24 loss. Given that the Wolverines finished the season as the undefeated national champions, a very reasonable argument could be made that Ohio State was the second-best team in college football.
In a lot of years, that might have been enough to get into the CFP. But 2023 was simply different. It was the only time in the CFP era that every Power Five conference champion had one or fewer losses, meaning that Ohio State – and the team listed right below them in these rankings – were left out.
4. Georgia, 2023
Ohio State wasn’t the only one-loss team that was on the outside looking in because of how uniquely wide open the 2023 playoff race was.
Georgia’s season was almost a carbon copy of Ohio State’s. Both teams were undefeated until a high-stakes showdown against a rival – in Georgia’s case, that meant the SEC Championship against 11-1 Alabama. And both teams lost one-possession games despite out-gaining their opponent in total yards, as Georgia lost a 27-24 battle in what ended up being the final Nick Saban-Kirby Smart game.
In previous seasons, a three-point loss to Alabama probably wouldn’t have been enough to knock a team from No. 1 in the country to being out of the playoff. But, once again, 2023 was special. According to our TRACR ratings, three of the top five non-playoff teams in the CFP era came last fall.
The silver lining? Georgia and Ohio State are the top two teams in this year’s preseason AP poll, meaning redemption could be on the horizon soon.
5. Georgia, 2018
Circling back to the 2018 Alabama team, the only time it was remotely threatened before its loss to Clemson was in the SEC Championship against Georgia.
The Bulldogs were hungry for revenge after a 26-23 overtime loss to Alabama in the prior year’s national championship game thanks to Tua Tagovailoa’s “2nd-and-26” touchdown pass, and a Georgia team that returned much of its personnel from that group had Nick Saban’s team on the ropes. Georgia led 28-14 in the second half, but Tagovailoa got hurt and Jalen Hurts led a comeback for the ages in a 35-28 win.
Because Georgia had already taken a prior regular season loss to Joe Burrow and LSU, this was enough to knock the Bulldogs out of the playoff picture, as one-loss Oklahoma moved into the No. 4 spot to join unbeaten Clemson, Alabama and Notre Dame.
As such, Kirby Smart, Jake Fromm and company came up short of a championship again, though the Bulldogs would get plenty of glory once the 2020s came around.
6. Michigan, 2016
Because of how elite both programs have been over the past three years, we’ve become accustomed to Ohio State and Michigan playing with everything on the line. But way back in 2016, that wasn’t the norm yet.
It was only the second Michigan-OSU matchup in which both teams entered the game ranked in the top three of the AP Poll, joining the iconic 2006 battle. As such, in 2016, “The Game” was as true of an elimination game as there could be. Both teams entered with 10-1 records, meaning that the loser had no chance at a playoff spot barring absolute chaos elsewhere in the country.
And in an instant classic contest, marred by officiating controversial enough that the Big Ten had to issue a statement about it, No. 2 Ohio State edged No. 3 Michigan in a 30-27 double-overtime battle.
Consequently, an elite defense led by the likes of Jabrill Peppers, Rashan Gary, Ben Gedeon and Taco Charlton came up short of earning Jim Harbaugh his first career CFP appearance.
It would be another five years until the Wolverines cracked the playoff picture, but Jim Harbaugh and company did eventually raise the national championship trophy.
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