We’re taking a look at the potential breakout wide receivers who could take sizable strides forward this season, based in large part on compelling pieces of their statistical profiles.
Wide receiver play seems to get better every year in the NFL, and 2024 – with a record-tying seven picked in the draft’s first round – is likely to be a strong example.
Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals, Malik Nabers of the New York Giants and Rome Odunze of the Chicago Bears will probably be stars in their rookie seasons like the Los Angeles Rams’ Puka Nacua in 2023. George Pickens could take another big leap in his third year in Pittsburgh.
But each season also brings breakout wide receivers who were already on rosters and only needed more snaps to establish themselves among the position’s better players.
Fortunately, game-tracking data and advanced metrics can help us take a stab at which players might make those movements this fall. Here are five NFL receivers who showed flashes of big talent last season and have a chance to elevate their profiles further in 2024.
These breakout candidates are listed in no particular order; all offer reasons to be excited.
A.T. Perry, New Orleans Saints
The Saints made Perry a sixth-round pick in 2023. He didn’t play at all in the team’s first seven games, then dressed for two in which he didn’t get a target. But Perry became an intriguing man down the stretch as Derek Carr came to favor him as a big-play threat.
Perry only got 18 targets as a role player in the second half of the season, but of his 12 receptions, five went for touchdowns, and five went for 20-plus yards. Perry got regular snaps in those last few weeks of the season, and his 57.8% big-play rate was the best mark in the league among receivers who ran at least 100 routes.
His 66.7% burn rate was also well above average in those rankings, and everything points toward Perry figuring prominently into the Saints’ plans in his second year. You might want to make a note ahead of your 2024 fantasy football draft.
Andre Iosivas, Cincinnati Bengals
Another Ivy Leaguer, Iosivas is an uncommon athlete. He was both a wideout and heptathlete at Princeton, and his athleticism in a 6-foot-3 frame caused the Bengals to take him in the sixth round in 2023.
On a parallel path to Perry in New Orleans, Iosivas had limited overall numbers but got more work as the season went on. He caught just 15 passes, but four of them went for touchdowns. Iosivas’ 84% burn rate on his 25 targets was the best in the entire league (with a minimum of 100 route runs).
The Bengals let No. 3 receiver Tyler Boyd walk in free agency already, and they’ve reportedly entertained trade possibilities for No. 2 man Tee Higgins. (Ja’Marr Chase, of course, isn’t going anywhere.) It’s reasonable to view Iosivas’ promise as a factor in the Bengals being comfortable not paying their veteran wideouts.
Iosivas will get a boost from Joe Burrow’s return from injury this year, too, as 11 of his 15 grabs in limited action last year came from backup Jake Browning.
Justin Watson, Kansas City Chiefs
Every year, someone looks poised to emerge from Kansas City’s wideout group and give Patrick Mahomes a reliable secondary option beyond tight end Travis Kelce. It hasn’t happened yet, at least not to the extent Andy Reid would like.
But Watson, heading into his seventh NFL season at 29, looks like he’s poised to get significant work with Mahomes this year. The Penn product posted career highs across the board in 2023 (27 catches, 460 receiving yards, three touchdowns) and had the league’s fourth-best big-play rate (44.7%) among those with 100-plus routes run.
With Kelce a year older and promising fellow wideout Rashee Rice in line for a likely suspension to start the season, Watson looks set to expand a mid-career renaissance that’s already seen him be a playoff contributor on the way to a couple of Super Bowl rings.
The Chiefs have also added first-round pick Xavier Worthy and explosive journeyman Hollywood Brown to their wideout room.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Who doesn’t like a good sequel? Shakir was on this list last year, owing to his elite burn rate and big-play rate in spot duties as a rookie in 2022. The former fifth-round pick did indeed take a nice step forward, roughly quadrupling most of his numbers and coming out with 39 catches for 611 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Shakir emerged as Josh Allen’s No. 4 target overall and No. 3 wideout, and he remained one of the hardest receivers to cover. (He was fourth in burn rate at 73.7% and well above average with a 34.7% big-play rate.)
In the offseason, the Bills moved on from both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis – the only two wideouts who were ahead of Shakir on the depth chart. He’ll see even more action as a slot man for Allen this year, leading a group that will include second-round pick Keon Coleman.
The Shakir breakout season already happened, but he still has room to grow in Buffalo.
Jason Brownlee, New York Jets
The Jets are reportedly excited about Brownlee heading into the preseason. Why? Probably because he’s very, very slippery. Brownlee’s 0.4 missed or broken tackles per touch were fourth among receivers who ran at least 100 routes.
That came in the smallest of small samples, as Brownlee didn’t get much of the target share (eight) and had just five catches after making the roster as an undrafted free agent. But with Aaron Rodgers coming back and his former Green Bay Packers teammate Randall Cobb no longer playing, every Jets receiver will have a chance to become the QB’s new best friend alongside star Garrett Wilson.
Brownlee won’t start the season as anything more than the team’s No. 4 or 5 receiver, and he’s not even a certainty to make the team. But it’s worth taking the Jets seriously when they express optimism about him.
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