Using the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of each team lifting the Premier League title at the end of the season. As the campaign goes on, we’ll track the chance of each of the frontrunners in the title race.
28 April
It may now be safe to say: ‘And then there were two’.
Liverpool kicked off the weekend’s action with another frustrating outing, drawing 2-2 at West Ham. A run of five Premier League games that has seen them win just once (D2 L2) has made Jürgen Klopp’s men significant outsiders in the title race.
Arsenal were next up on Sunday with a huge game at rivals Tottenham in the North London derby, and Mikel Arteta’s side emerged victorious at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Their 3-2 win ended up being closer than it looked like it would be when they led by three at the break, but the points were secured nonetheless.
It was then over to Manchester City, who struggled to cope with relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest for large periods. Despite that, Pep Guardiola’s men fought hard for a 2-0 victory at the City Ground. Erling Haaland came off the bench to secure the win with his 21st league goal of the season, edging ahead of Cole Palmer in the race for the Golden Boot.
The Opta supercomputer has made its adjustments following this weekend’s results and it is City who remain favourites for the title. However, given Arsenal overcame Spurs in arguably their hardest remaining game, the Gunners have made a bit of ground on City in the 10,000 simulations.
The defending champions now win a fourth-consecutive title in 67.4% of sims, while Arsenal pip City in 32.5% of them.
Sorry Liverpool fans, we’re afraid the Reds are down to just a 0.1% chance of a miraculous title win now. That said, defeat for Spurs on Sunday means the team that will reportedly be led by Arne Slot next season should be back in the Champions League. Even if Liverpool somehow don’t get the one point they need to confirm it, Tottenham would also need a 27-goal turnaround on goal difference in their remaining games to catch them.
26 April
We’re not saying Manchester City’s march to the title is inevitable, but Kevin De Bruyne scored a header on Wednesday night.
The Belgian opened the scoring in City’s convincing 4-0 win at Brighton and Hove Albion by notching his 68th Premier League goal for the club, and his first with his head. Phil Foden added two more goals before Julián Álvarez completed the routine victory.
It sent the defending champions above Liverpool into second, two points ahead of the Reds and just one behind leaders Arsenal, still with a game in hand on both.
As Brighton away was one of City’s trickier remaining fixtures, on paper if not on pitch, it has given Pep Guardiola’s men a big boost in the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, with them now going on to win the Premier League title 71.7% of the time.
Arsenal have dropped to 26.6%, while Liverpool’s challenge looks bleaker by the day as Jürgen Klopp’s men win the Premier League this season in just 1.7% of sims.
Liverpool face West Ham in the early kick-off on Saturday, while Arsenal travel to north London rivals Tottenham and Man City are at Nottingham Forest on Sunday.
25 April
Another day, another twist in the title race. And this one might just mean curtains for Liverpool.
A dreadfully disappointing 2-0 defeat in Wednesday night’s Merseyside derby at Goodison Park has left Liverpool’s title chances hanging by a thread.
They were already the outsiders as they needed both Manchester City and Arsenal to slip up while winning all of their own games, and this loss to Everton means they are three points behind Arsenal at the top of the table with a far inferior goal difference. City are one point behind but have two games in hand.
Liverpool therefore now need both of their title rivals to drop points twice in the season’s final few games. It isn’t looking good.
This is reflected in the Opta supercomputer’s latest numbers. Liverpool are now given just a 2.7% chance of winning the title in Jürgen Klopp’s final season at the club. That’s a drop of 10.5% from before the Everton game.
City were the biggest benefactors of Liverpool’s defeat, with their title chances rising to 62.2% without them even kicking a ball. Arsenal also saw their chances rise, but only to 35.1%. It’s getting closer and closer to a two-horse race.
City’s fate is in their own hands, and given the form Arsenal are in, Pep Guardiola’s side are probably going to have to win all of their remaining games, starting with Thursday night’s trip to Brighton. There is huge pressure on this one.
24 April
We don’t normally update this page when only one of the title challengers has played, but these are extreme times, so here goes.
Arsenal’s 5-0 thumping of Chelsea on Tuesday night sent them three points clear of Liverpool at the top of the table and piled the pressure on Manchester City who, now four points behind and with an inferior goal difference, have to win both of their games in hand to move back to the summit.
At the Emirates, an early goal from Leandro Trossard settled Arsenal’s nerves, before they tore Chelsea apart in the second half with both Kai Havertz and Ben White grabbing braces. The win was a warning sign to their title rivals – it was their biggest-ever win over Chelsea, and took them six goals clear as the Premier League’s top scorers this season. It was also their 16th clean sheet of 2023-24 – six more than any other top-flight team.
The result saw Arsenal’s title chances jump from 22.1% to 30.8%. City remain the favourites to win the title because their fate is in their own hands, but their chances fell from 62.0% before Arsenal beat Chelsea to 56.0%, showing how significant Arsenal’s win is.
Liverpool are still very much in the race, but they need both City and Arsenal to slip up, with their title chances now rated at 13.2%.
Liverpool face Everton on Wednesday night before City travel to Brighton on Thursday, and we’ll be back after each game to give you the latest numbers from the Opta supercomputer.
22 April
With Manchester City in FA Cup action on Saturday, Arsenal and Liverpool had the chance to move ahead of the title favourites at the top of the Premier League table this weekend. And after disappointing results last week, they needed to take the chance to bounce back.
Both faced potentially tricky games on the road against mid-table teams, but both came through their tests unscathed. As a result, the title race became a little bit tighter according to the Opta supercomputer’s predictions.
Arsenal ran out 2-0 victors at Wolves on Saturday night thanks to goals from Leandro Trossard and Martin Ødegaard. That result took them back to the top of the table, one point ahead of Manchester City.
On Sunday, Liverpool survived a mini scare at Fulham to win 3-1 and join Arsenal on 74 points at the top of the league. Trent Alexander-Arnold put Liverpool ahead with a superb free-kick, before Timothy Castagne equalised for the hosts on the stroke of half-time, but second-half goals from Ryan Gravenberch and Diogo Jota handed Jürgen Klopp’s side the win they needed.
Those results leave City third in the table with a game in hand, and so reduced their chances of winning the title slightly.
Their title chances dropped from 70.1% to 62.0%, but they remain clear favourites to win the Premier League for a record fourth consecutive year.
Arsenal are second favourites, with the win at Wolves increasing their title chances from 18.3% to 22.1%. Liverpool are still in the race, though, with a 15.9% chance, having come into the weekend with their chances rated at 11.7%.
All three teams face tough midweek fixtures this week. Arsenal host Chelsea on Tuesday, before Liverpool make the short trip to Goodison Park for the Merseyside derby with Everton on Wednesday and Manchester City go to Brighton on Thursday.
We’ll be back after those games to see how the title race has been affected.
14 April
What a weekend for Manchester City. After picking up three points on Saturday to go top of the Premier League, they watched rivals Liverpool fall to a shock 1-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace, before Arsenal also slipped up in a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium.
After their 2-2 draw at Manchester United last week, Liverpool surely couldn’t afford to drop any more points so soon, but they suffered only their third Premier League defeat of the campaign and their first league loss at Anfield since October 2022 thanks to Eberechi Eze’s 14th-minute strike.
The 2.87 expected goals amassed by the hosts was their most on record (since 2010-11) in a game in which they failed to find the net, having also been wasteful in front of goal against United seven days prior.
It also came a day after Man City went top of the table with a 5-1 thrashing of Luton Town at the Etihad Stadium. A Daiki Hashioka own goal was followed in the second-half by goals from Mateo Kovacic, an Erling Haaland penalty, Jérémy Doku and Josko Gvardiol, with Ross Barkley pulling one back for the visitors.
Arsenal had the chance to take advantage of Liverpool’s slip on Sunday but were unable to do so as former manager Unai Emery returned to seal a 2-0 win for Aston Villa at the Emirates. Late goals from Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins handed the Gunners their fifth league defeat of the season, and their first of 2024.
As a result, unsurprisingly, Man City have become even bigger favourites according to the supercomputer, winning the title in a whopping 70.1% of its 10,000 season simulations.
Arsenal’s possibility of lifting the title has dropped to 18.3%, while Liverpool pay the price for losing a game they were even heavier favourites in by seeing their chances reduced to just 11.7%.
There are just two points between City and both of their rivals with six games to play, but the supercomputer knows how ominous the form of Pep Guardiola’s men usually is at this stage of the season. Arsenal and Liverpool have it all to do to wrestle things back from them in the run-in.
7 April
Well, well, well.
We said in our last post there’d be twists and turns in this title race yet, and we’ve just had an absolutely massive one at Old Trafford.
Liverpool dominated against Manchester United but wasted chance after chance and were made to pay late on. They had gone ahead through Luis Díaz, but Bruno Fernandes scored with United’s first shot in the 50th minute of the game, and Kobbie Mainoo turned the game on its head against all odds shortly after. Mo Salah rescued a point from the spot, but it will feel like two points dropped for Jürgen Klopp’s side.
They had come into the weekend as favourites to win the league, boasting a 45.0% chance of winning the title according to the Opta supercomputer. But after their draw at Old Trafford, their chances have dropped to 29.1%. They are now third favourites for the title.
That’s because their result followed both Arsenal and Manchester City winning on Saturday.
City had opened the weekend’s proceedings with a 4-2 win at Crystal Palace, although their victory wasn’t without its scares. Palace had gone ahead in the third minute, only for Kevin De Bruyne to inspire his side back in front.
Arsenal then played the late game at Brighton and cruised to a comfortable 3-0 win through goals from Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Leandro Trossard.
City are now – once again – favourites to win the league, given a 40.6%% chance of securing a record-breaking fourth consecutive title. Arsenal, however, saw the biggest increase in their title chances, shooting up from 21.4% to 30.3% – a rise of 8.9% that puts them into second place in the race, and firmly in contention to win their first title in 20 years.
It is getting closer and closer to each side having a one-in-three chance of winning the title. It is almost as even as it could possibly be with seven games remaining.
5 April
We’re into April now, and well into the business end of the season. The fixtures are starting to pile up and all three title rivals will be playing both in midweek and at the weekend throughout the month.
Each of Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City got the month off to the perfect start with a win in this midweek round of fixtures, and the headline news for the title race is that those results haven’t changed much at all.
Arsenal were the biggest winners following an incredibly comfortable victory over Luton on Wednesday. We are into the section of the season when things started to unravel last season, so the supercomputer values an Arsenal win during the run-in particularly highly. This victory saw their title chances rise from 18.8% to 21.4%.
Mikel Arteta rested several key players ahead of a busy month, and they still managed to win without much fuss at all. It’s the first time the Opta supercomputer has given Arsenal more than a one-in-five chance of winning the title since the turn of the year.
A Phil-Foden-inspired Manchester City responded later on in the evening by thrashing Aston Villa at the Etihad Stadium. It was their first win of the entire season against another member of the current top five, and didn’t come without an early scare when Jhon Durán equalised for Villa.
But then Foden came to life and struck the third hat-trick of his career to send City back to within one point of Arsenal. City’s title chances rose by just 0.1% after this win over Villa; the supercomputer expected them to win and so doesn’t believe them winning affects their title chances too much.
Liverpool then had an almighty scare on Thursday night, but eventually managed to see off basement boys Sheffield United thanks to Alexis Mac Allister’s rocket of a finish. The Opta supercomputer had given Liverpool an 85.5% chance of winning that match, and so the fact that they struggled to break down the team set to break the Premier League record for goals conceded in a season appears to have hurt their title chances. Their chances dropped from 47.7% to 45.0% after this midweek round of fixtures.
With all three teams winning on Matchday 31, little has changed at the top. The three-horse race is still set to go down to the wire.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
Who do you think is going to win the Premier League? Let us know on our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook. You can also subscribe to our football newsletter ‘Stat, Viz, Quiz’ to receive exclusive weekly content.