Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2023-24? Using the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of relegation for each team facing the drop from the top flight. As the season goes on, we’ll track the progress of those sides in their battle to avoid relegation to the Championship.
25 April
Everton’s fantastic 2-0 win over Liverpool looks to have ended any worries of Premier League relegation this season. The Toffees now sit eight points above the relegation zone and know they could be certainties for a Premier League place in 2024-25 if results go their way this weekend.
Although it’s not yet certain they’ll survive, the Opta supercomputer believes it’s as good as, with Sean Dyche’s side being relegated in just 0.07% of the latest simulations for the remainder of the campaign.
Sheffield United’s latest defeat, a 4-2 reverse at Old Trafford versus Manchester United in a game that they led twice, means that they could be relegated back to the Championship this weekend. With a 10-point gap between themselves and 17th-place Nottingham Forest in the table, it’s almost certain that they are down now, with the latest Opta supercomputer simulations seeing them remain in the Premier League just 0.01% of the time.
Burnley will be buoyed by how Sheffield United troubled Man Utd at times on Wednesday, as Vincent Kompany’s side travel to Old Trafford themselves on Saturday. They are currently relegated in 92.46% of the 10,000 season simulations, but a single win could change all of that, especially if Luton and Forest fail to win this weekend.
Luton are still the third favourites for the drop ahead of their trip to Wolves on Saturday afternoon (71.7%), while Nottingham Forest (35.78%) are looking over their shoulder and have to wait until Sunday to play their next match.
By the time they host champions Manchester City on Sunday, they’ll know how both Burnley and Luton did in their respective fixtures a day earlier. Across our season simulations on Thursday, Forest averaged 30 points at the end of the season – four from their final four matches. With City visiting the City Ground this weekend, it’s unlikely any of those points will come before next week, however.
22 April
It was a polarising weekend for the teams struggling towards the bottom of the Premier League, as the relegation battle produced a few more twists and turns that saw several clubs take huge strides towards safety.
Although Crystal Palace and Brentford have mostly only been on the periphery of the scrap at the bottom, both look as though they can rest a little easier over the coming weeks after victories at the weekend took them 11 and 10 points clear of the bottom three respectively.
Palace thrashed West Ham 5-2 on Sunday, though Brentford’s success on Saturday had a more significant impact on matters in the fight for survival, as they crushed 18th-placed Luton Town 5-1 at Kenilworth Road.
It was a fourth defeat in five for Luton and a second 5-1 loss on the bounce, contributing to their relegation chances increasing from 59.4% last week to 72.4%.
Fortunately for Luton, Nottingham Forest couldn’t get a result at Everton on Sunday. The Toffees’ 2-0 win moved them five points clear of the drop zone and they also have a game in hand on the three clubs below them.
Forest are one of those three clubs, of course. They remain a point better off than Luton (26 to 25) with four matches remaining, with their relegation probability rated at 33.5% by the Opta supercomputer; that’s up slightly from 33.1% last week, while Everton’s dropped to 1.0 – as low as it’s been all season – from 8.9%.
Sean Dyche’s men have probably done enough now to retain their top-flight status.
Burnley are still fighting. They also enjoyed an impressive victory on Saturday, leaving Bramall Lane with a 4-1 defeat of Sheffield United. They remain three points adrift of safety but face relegation rivals Forest on the last day of the season in a game that could potentially decide who goes down.
Still, the supercomputer’s output reflects how unlikely it would be for the Clarets to escape as they drop to the Championship in 93.2% of the 10,000 season simulations – that’s down from 98.4% before the weekend, though. A shock win at Old Trafford against an ailing Manchester United on Saturday could really put a cat among the pigeons.
Sheffield United are as good as gone. Ten points from safety with five matches left, nothing about their performance this season has suggested they’re capable of turning things around so late in the day; they could even set a new record for most goals conceded in a Premier League campaign.
16 April
There was very little to smile about for the Premier League’s bottom five this weekend, as Everton, Nottingham Forest, Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United all dropped points. As a result, those teams have been cut further adrift in the battle to beat the drop.
The fact that they all slipped up has, however, meant there was little change in the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for their fate come the end of the season.
Sheffield United’s chances of relegation went up from 99.6% to an almost-certain 99.8%. Burnley, who could have grabbed a vital win were it not for Arijanet Muric’s colossal error to let Sander Berge’s backpass slip under his foot and into the net, also saw their relegation chances edge towards 100%, going from 98.1% to 98.5%.
The likely fate of those two teams leaves one spot in the relegation zone to avoid for the rest, and Luton remain favourites to fill it. A 5-1 defeat at Manchester City is nothing to feel embarrassed about, and the supercomputer fully expected Rob Edwards’ side to come away empty-handed. That’s why their relegation chances have only gone up slightly – from 59.1% to 61.0%. Time is running out for Luton to claw their way out of trouble, though.
Nottingham Forest moved a point clear of the Hatters but they may consider their draw against Wolves to be two points dropped rather than one point gained. Whatever it was, it was a huge opportunity to pick up a crucial win that they didn’t take.
Forest’s relegation chances improved a little with that point – dropping from 33.1% to 32.7% – and they will need to match Luton’s results for the rest of the season to retain their Premier League status. They still have to play Everton, Burnley and Sheffield United, so there are plenty of opportunities to pick up the points they need.
Everton had about as disastrous a week as possible, losing 6-0 at Chelsea to deal their goal difference a hefty blow. It was the first time in 308 top-flight games that a Sean Dyche team has conceded as many as six goals.
The defeat pushed their relegation chances up from 5.6% to 7.6%, making them the biggest losers from the weekend. With only one win in their last 15, they are rather stumbling towards Premier League safety. Of course, they are appealing their latest points deduction, and the outcome of that process may be key to whether or not they stay up.
Wins for Brentford (2-0 vs Sheffield United) and Crystal Palace (1-0 vs Liverpool), meanwhile, have moved those two teams towards safety. Given respective relegation chances of 0.3% and 0.1% after the weekend, it would take something remarkable for either side to go down.
8 April
It’s been an eventful few days at the wrong end of the Premier League. After a weekend that saw just two of the bottom six lose, Everton were on Monday given another points deduction for further breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules.
This time it was only a two-point deduction (following on from their 10-point penalty that was reduced to six on appeal), but it is still damaging nonetheless. It has naturally dragged them further back into the relegation battle.
They had gone into the weekend with a 3.5% chance of going down according to the Opta supercomputer. A 1-0 win against a Burnley side seemingly desperate to shoot themselves in the foot saw Everton’s chances of relegation drop to 2.2%, only for the two-point deduction to increase their relegation chances to 5.6%.
They are therefore deemed more likely to go down than they were before the weekend’s action despite having one more point than they did on Friday. That’s because of results around them – namely Luton’s comeback victory over Bournemouth.
Rob Edwards’ side went into the weekend without a win in 10, and there wouldn’t have been much confidence that they could end that run when they were trailing to Bournemouth with less than 20 minutes to go at Kenilworth Road on Saturday.
But Luton have ended games very well this season – only Liverpool (27) have scored more goals after the 76th minute in Premier League games than them (17) – and they turned the game around to secure a vital three points. The result leaves them trailing 17th-placed Nottingham Forest only on goal difference.
Having gone into the weekend with a 79.2% chance of going down (5 April), the Matchday 32 results saw their chances of relegation fall to 60.9% (7 April). Everton’s point deduction gave them another nudge in the right direction, with Luton relegated in 59.1% of the supercomputer’s latest round of simulations (8 April).
Luton were the only team in the bottom seven that saw their chances of survival improve this weekend, with their relegation chances dropping by 20.1% since Friday.
Nottingham Forest were the biggest losers this weekend, with their 3-1 defeat at Tottenham increasing their chances of going down from 19.2% to 34.4%. Everton’s points deduction did help them out with a drop of 1.3% in their chances of going down, but an overall reduction of 13.9% in the survival hopes puts them firmly in the relegation battle.
Burnley had gone four games without a defeat before this weekend, but they needed to keep up their run of form, particularly given they were facing a rival at the bottom of the table in Everton. But Arijanet Muric gifted Dominic Calvert-Lewin a goal before Dara O’Shea was sent off, and they couldn’t find a way back into the game. The weekend’s events leave them with just a 1.9% chance of survival.
Brentford (1.7%) and Crystal Palace (2.8%) are still just about in the relegation battle given their recent form. They are both within five points of the relegation zone and looking over their shoulders nervously.
2 April
It’s a potentially massive week in the Premier League, with a midweek matchday to be followed by another round of fixtures at the weekend. While such a congested schedule could be impactful anywhere in the table, it’s at the bottom where the clamour for points is arguably at its most desperate.
The weekend’s action brought the bottom five a little closer together for the second matchday in a row, as both of the bottom two picked up at least a point again, while Everton – sat fifth from bottom – suffered a third successive defeat.
It’s also worth noting that this was the first matchday since Nottingham Forest were hit with a four-point deduction for breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).
Sheffield United still prop up the table but will be feeling a bitter sense of what might’ve been after they surrendered a 3-1 lead in what was eventually a 3-3 draw at home to Fulham on Saturday, with Marco Silva’s side scoring twice from the 86th minute onwards.
So, while their chances of avoiding the drop have remained at 98.4% according to the Opta supercomputer, it’s fair to say their outlook would’ve looked a little less bleak had they held on against Fulham; after all, no one is expecting them to get anything from Thursday’s trip to Anfield.
The Blades weren’t the only team in the struggling pack to suffer late disappointment on Saturday. Luton Town were on course for a commendable 1-1 draw at Tottenham, but Son Heung-min’s 86th-minute winner for the hosts was a bitter blow and saw the Hatters drop into the bottom three.
Last week, Luton’s relegation probability was rated at 62.1%; that’s now up to 65.5% as a result of the weekend’s results.
Forest were the main team to gain from Luton’s late disappointment. Their points deduction really increased the heat on Nuno Espírito Santo’s side but a 1-1 draw at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday was enough to move them back above Luton on goal difference.
Nevertheless, it wasn’t enough to reduce their relegation chances in the eyes of the supercomputer, as they went from 37.5% to 39.3%. However, they’ll sense the midweek fixtures present an opportunity to break clear as they host Fulham on Tuesday while Luton go to title-challenging Arsenal a day later.
Burnley are still rated as the next most likely to go down after Sheffield United, though their fans may still be harbouring real hope of a great escape. Few would’ve expected them to get a result at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, yet they left with a 2-2 draw despite playing more than half the match a man down.
That contributed to their relegation probability decreasing by 3.8 percentage points to 91.0%, and with an inconsistent Wolves side visiting Turf Moor on Tuesday, another positive result is hardly beyond the realm of possibility.
Of the bottom five, Everton are still the least likely to go down according to the supercomputer, which stands to reason. Before the weekend, their chances of dropping a division were rated at 3.3%; a run of three defeats on the bounce has contributed to a slight – but marginal – increase to 3.6%, though the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations still considers it to be very unlikely Sean Dyche’s team will be sucked into the relegation zone.
Some might even argue the likes of Brentford – a place above Everton – and Crystal Palace – another place higher – aren’t out of the woods yet, though, and when you look at the latter’s run-in, it’s easy to see why.
Of the bottom seven teams, Palace statistically have the toughest final nine games when you take into consideration the average rating of their opponents in the Opta Power Rankings.
The teams they have between now and the end of the season have an average rating of 90.2, with matches against Manchester City (H) and Liverpool (A) back-to-back. In fact, of their remaining nine matches, seven are against sides currently in the top half of the table and none are clashes with sides below them.
It also doesn’t look great for Luton, who will be facing teams with an average rating of 88.8 in the Opta Power Rankings. They still have to go to Arsenal and City, though they host fellow strugglers Everton on MD 36, and that could be vital.
18 March
Due to the FA Cup quarter-finals, only four Premier League games took place over the weekend, but there was still drama aplenty, particularly in the race to avoid relegation to the Championship.
The bottom six teams are all firmly in the mix, while Crystal Palace may be looking over their shoulders in 14th. Four of them were in action at the weekend, all in games against one another.
Burnley picked up just their fourth Premier League win of the season, beating 10-man Brentford 2-1 at Turf Moor to give their hopes of survival a much-needed boost. Their chances of relegation were rated at 99.4% before the weekend, and things are still looking rather hopeless for Vincent Kompany’s side. Nothing but three points would have done on Saturday, though.
They will need more wins if they are to escape the drop, but after seeing off Brentford they are relegated in 97.5% of the supercomputer’s season simulations. It’s not much of an improvement, but it’s a move in the right direction at least.
Brentford aren’t in trouble yet, but this was still a damaging defeat. Thomas Frank’s side are now only four points clear of the relegation zone having lost five and drawn one of their last six games. Their chances of going down increased from 2.8% before the loss at Burnley, to 4.6%. They do at least have a relatively easy run-in on their side, although they would have expected to get something from the game at Turf Moor this weekend, so current form suggests they can’t count on taking points against any opponent. They’ll need to keep all 11 men on the pitch to stand any chance, with Sergio Reguilón’s early red card costing them on Saturday.
The other game involving teams at the bottom saw Luton rescue a point late on against Nottingham Forest. They came into this game having themselves thrown away a lead in the middle of last week, losing 4-3 at Bournemouth after leading 3-0 at the break. In doing so, Luton became only the third team in Premier League history to lose a game after holding a half-time lead of at least three goals.
That result – in their game in hand – put even more pressure on this weekend’s home match against fellow relegation battlers Forest. Nuno Espiríto Santo’s side had also been on a poor run heading into this one.
It was the visitors who took the lead, though, with Chris Wood turning in Morgan Gibbs-White’s cross in the first half. Had the score stayed at 1-0, Forest would have opened up a five-point gap to the relegation zone.
Instead, they dropped back, invited pressure, and were made to pay in the 89th minute when Luke Berry turned in his first Premier League goal to rescue a vital point for the hosts.
More dropped points (on top of the defeat to Bournemouth) meant Luton’s relegation chances increased from 69.4% to 78.1% in the last week. Forest’s chances were given a little boost, dropping to 13.4%, having been 17.3% last week.
Without even kicking a ball, Everton’s chances of going down fell from 7.1% to 5.1%. Their game in hand – a Merseyside derby against rivals Liverpool at Goodison Park – may well prove crucial.
The promoted three sides all look doomed, but there’s plenty of time yet for more twists and turns in the 2023-24 relegation battle.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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