Following confirmation of their four-point deduction for financial breaches, we fired up the Opta supercomputer to see what it means for Nottingham Forest’s chances of staying up.

Nottingham Forest have been deducted four points with immediate effect after breaching the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR).

After being referred to an independent commission in January, the ruling was confirmed on Monday that Forest will face a four-point penalty.

That is two fewer than Everton’s six-point penalty for also breaching PSR, which was reduced from 10 points on appeal.

A Premier League statement said: “An independent Commission has applied an immediate four-point deduction to Nottingham Forest FC for a breach of the Premier League’s PSRs for the period ending season 2022-23.

“Nottingham Forest was referred to an independent Commission on 15 January, following an admission by the club that it had breached the relevant PSR threshold of £61 million by £34.5m. The threshold was lower than £105m as the club spent two seasons of the assessment period in the EFL Championship. The case was heard in accordance with new Premier League Rules, which provide an expedited timetable for PSR cases to be resolved in the same season the complaint is issued.

“The independent Commission determined the sanction following a two-day hearing this month, at which the club had the opportunity to detail a range of mitigating factors. The Commission found that the club had demonstrated ‘exceptional cooperation’ in its dealings with the Premier League throughout the process.”

The loss of four points sends Nuno Espírito Santo’s side into the Premier League relegation zone, dropping from 17th to 18th place. Coincidentally, it sees their opponents from Saturday, Luton Town, leapfrog them. Luton secured a point at Kenilworth Road in a 1-1 draw thanks to Luke Berry’s late equaliser after Chris Wood had put Forest ahead.

It means Forest go from 25 points to 21, now sitting a point behind Luton and four ahead of 19th-place Burnley. As a result, Everton (25 points) and Brentford (26 points) all pull a point further ahead of the drop zone.

Forest may be somewhat relieved they didn’t lose six points as Everton did, but the deduction is still a blow to their chances of Premier League survival.

According to the Opta supercomputer, following the draw at Luton, Forest were given a 13.4% chance of being relegated, with Sheffield United (99.6%), Burnley (97.5%) and Luton (78.1%) all considered heavy favourites to go back down to the Championship.

After Forest’s points deduction, their chances of being relegated have gone up to 37.5%, with Luton’s cut to 62.1%. The ruling does little for Sheffield United (98.4%) and Burnley (94.8%), but is of further help to Everton, whose chances of relegation have dropped further – from 5.1% to just 3.3%.

Relegation chances before-after N Forest deduction

Nuno can at least console himself with the fact his team have one of the kinder-looking run-ins to the end of the season, but the added scoreboard pressure of the new table won’t help the stress levels.

That said, Everton took the news of their initial 10-point deduction and ran with it, winning four of their five games immediately following the announcement back in November (though Sean Dyche’s men haven’t won in the league since the end of that run on 16 December).

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