How is Cleveland is so good with a middle-of-the-pack offense and a less-than mediocre rotation? It’s all about the Guardians’ bullpen.
It might seem like a surprise to some, but the Cleveland Guardians are, quite comfortably, the best team in the AL Central and one of the best in the American League.
That isn’t up for discussion. They boast a 61-41 record and a plus-77 run differential heading into Friday’s action.
One might wonder, however, how the Guardians managed to reach that level of excellence with a middle-of-the-pack offense (14th in MLB with a .711 OPS/23rd in raw value+) and a less-than mediocre rotation (25th with a 4.51 ERA/29th in raw value-).
You can point out Cleveland’s excellent player development and coaching, or the notable influence of new manager Stephen Vogt. You can also find explanations in the consistently great roster maneuvering by president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, one of the best in the business. The real answer, however, is that the Guardians can thank their great bullpen.
They not only have the leagues’s best bullpen by ERA, but the existing gap with the rest of the field is jaw-dropping. The unit opened Friday with a 2.50 ERA – the lowest in MLB – with the second-best mark belonging to the Atlanta Braves (2.93). Those are the only squads under 3.00 when it comes to ERA. The third-best Milwaukee Brewers check in at 3.26.
We would have to go to 2013, when the Braves relief corps posted an incredible 2.46 ERA, to find such an effective group. This year’s Guardians are also second behind only Atlanta (79.1) in bullpen raw value- at 80.3 – 20% better than the league-average ‘pen.
Of course, having a generational closer helps. A lot.
Emmanuel Clase is up to 31 saves, which would be a rock-solid output for an average closer over the course of a full season. We are in late July, though, and he’ll have plenty of chances to keep increasing that total. It’s crazy to think he has successfully closed out more than half of his team’s victories.
What the All-Star is doing is nothing short of amazing. He has a 0.76 ERA in 47.1 frames, with a 40/6 SO/BB ratio. He recently took possession of second place in the Guardians’ all-time saves list and will become the franchise leader before the end of the season barring an injury.
He surpassed Bob Wickman this week and has 141. Next up is Cleveland’s all-time leader and symbol of the highly successful 2010s Guardians: Cody Allen, with 149 saves.
Clase uses his incredible cutter roughly 81.2% of the time. It helps that he has solid command of the pitch and it can reach triple digits with sudden, late movement that stymies both lefties and righties. He leads the majors in average velocity on his cutter at 99.3 mph, which is far ahead of the next highest velo – Corbin Burnes at 95.4.
It also misses bats (111 whiff+) and has a 99 command+ which is right around league average (impressive for a pitch with so much velocity and movement). What it does best is generate lots of weak contact with a 41 BIP+, a hitting metric that evaluates damage inflicted on contact.
All these metrics lead to an incredible 55 raw value- (RV-) for Clase’s cutter. RV- is the rate version of raw value, a metric that lets us evaluate performance (discipline, contact, damage done upon contact) on a per-pitch basis, rather than just the outcome of an at-bat.
For pitchers, a lower RV- is better, and considering the average value is 100, his cutter rates incredibly well. In case you are wondering, he has a 59 RV- overall, also an elite mark.
But the Guardians’ bullpen is more than just Clase. Much, much more. Hunter Gaddis, for example, was a failed starter who the team converted into a highly successful reliever this year. He has a pristine 1.13 ERA in 48 frames. That, friends, is definitely not a fluke.
Per total raw value, Gaddis is MLB’s fourth-best relief pitcher.
That’s pretty impressive. But that’s not everything this phenomenal bullpen has to offer.
Tim Herrin has a 1.34 ERA in 40.1 innings. The left-hander posted a 5.53 ERA last year in 27.2 frames, but has made an emphasis on featuring more curveballs this season and it has paid off big time. He owns a 143 whiff+ on the pitch.
Nick Sandlin’s ERA might be a relatively discrete 3.72, but he has one of the nastiest splitters you will see. The pitch has a 182 whiff+.
Hope you are comfortable, because we are just getting started. This bullpen has many additional hidden gems, and one of the best is definitely rookie righty Cade Smith.
Smith has 67 strikeouts and a 138 whiff+, plus a 2.11 ERA and a 57 RV-. He has achieved all this in 47 innings, becoming one of Vogt’s go-to guys in high-leverage situations at just 25 years old.
Smith also has a higher accumulated RV than Clase at -9.3. He ranks second on the team behind Gaddis and boasts an enviable fastball with a 162 whiff+.
The Guardians pitching development group has done a masterful job with this unit, but the most impressive thing is the fact that the team allows every pitcher to focus on their strengths. They don’t focus on a single pitch, as some of these relievers thrive on cutters (Clase), others on sliders (Gaddis), curveballs (Herrin), splitters (Sandlin), and even fastballs (Smith).
Of course, there is more. You have the always reliable Scott Barlow, who overcame a slow start and has dropped his ERA to 3.24. Pedro Avila has a 3.30 ERA after a disastrous stint in San Diego. The Guardians also have Sam Hentges (3.04, currently injured) and Peter Strzelecki (1.08 in 8.1 IP).
This bullpen is not only good, it’s remarkably versatile and deep. Cleveland will be a problem in the postseason as things stand, but if it manages to add some offense and a reliable starter or two ahead of the trade deadline, watch out.
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