With the start of Euro 2024 just round the corner, we ask the Opta supercomputer for its Group F predictions for Portugal, Turkey, Czech Republic and Georgia. Who will qualify for the last 16?
The 2016 European champions will kick off their campaign aiming to be among the front runners again, with one big question on everyone’s lips. How much of a part will Cristiano Ronaldo play?
We can’t ignore Portugal’s opponents in Group F, though. Turkey will be looking to reach the levels they found in 2008 when they reached the semi-finals, while Czech Republic have qualified for their eighth consecutive European Championship, last failing to do in 1992 when competing as Czechoslovakia.
Then you have debutants Georgia. They are more than just star player Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and will be led into their first ever major tournament by former France international Willy Sagnol.
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictor numbers to see how Group F is likely to play out.
Euro 2024 Group F Predictions: The Quick Stats
- Portugal are big favourites to reach the last 16, doing so in 93.6% of pre-tournament simulations.
- Turkey are likeliest to join them at 74.2%, with Czech Republic also reaching the last 16 in 60.7% of sims. Georgia can’t be completely discounted at 37.2%.
- Portugal are handed an 9.2% chance of going all the way in Germany and winning their second Euros title.
When looking at Portugal’s squad, your eye is immediately drawn to the attack. Roberto Martínez has a remarkable selection of talent to choose from, with forward options including Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leão, Bernardo Silva, Diogo Jota, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix and Pedro Neto.
Portugal are taking part in their ninth Euros, including their eighth in a row since 1996. They are the only team to reach the knockout stages of the tournament at each of the last seven editions, stretching back to Euro 96. In fact, Portugal have never failed to qualify from the group stage.
Martínez’ side were perfect in qualifying for Euro 2024, as the only team to win 100% of their games (10/10), while they scored more goals than any other team (36) and even managed the best defensive record (2 goals conceded).
There is no getting away from their main story from the 2022 World Cup, though, which saw Portugal look better once Ronaldo was taken out of the team, despite his phenomenal international record. The 39-year-old holds the record for most Euros games (25), most Euros goals (14), joint-most assists on record (6 – since 1972) and most European Championships with at least one goal scored (5).
Ronaldo is also the European player with the most appearances at major tournaments, World Cup and Euros combined (47). Since 1972, he has twice as many goal involvements as any other player at the tournament: 20 in total (14 goals, 6 assists), 10 ahead of Michel Platini in second (9 goals, 1 assist).
Portugal’s campaign gets under way against Czech Republic on 18 June in Leipzig, with the Seleção heavy favourites to win Group F, doing so in 59.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, while they maintain their perfect record in reaching the Euros knockout stage 93.6% of the time.
Turkey enter their sixth European Championship, having qualified for the tournament in three consecutive editions for the first time.
Vincenzo Montella will be first non-Turkish head coach to take charge of the national team at a major tournament since fellow Italian Sandro Puppo led Turkey at the 1954 World Cup. The former Milan, Fiorentina and Sevilla boss will be hoping to take them far in Germany, with their previous best performance being their semi-final appearance in 2008.
It hasn’t been a happy competition for Turkey in recent editions, though. They have lost six of their last seven European Championship matches (W1). They have also kept only one clean sheet in their last 12 games at the tournament, which was a 2-0 group-stage win against Czech Republic at Euro 2016.
Midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu was involved in the most open-play shot-ending sequences of any Turkey player in qualifying, with 47. The sequences he played a part in generated 5.43 expected goals, also the most of any teammate.
They begin their tournament in Dortmund against Georgia on 18 June, and have been given a respectable 74.2% chance of advancing from Group F by the supercomputer.
Czech Republic are no strangers to the Euros, with this their 11th appearance at the tournament (also as Czechoslovakia), and their eighth in a row.
Since they reached the final in 1996, Czech Republic (or ‘Czechia’) have alternated between reaching the knockout phase and elimination in the group stage of the Euros. They will want to break that streak in Germany, having reached the quarter-finals at Euro 2020.
Patrik Schick was in fine form at that tournament, scoring five of his country’s six goals and becoming only the second Czech player to be sole or joint-top scorer at a single edition of the Euros after Milan Baros in 2004 (also 5 goals).
Ivan Hašek’s side have a 60.7% chance of making it to the knockout phase, but will have to come up against an unknown commodity in Group F.
Georgia will compete as an independent country at a major international tournament for the first time in their history. They are the only country at Euro 2024 to make their debut in the tournament, after beating Greece on penalties in the play-offs.
They were the only team to qualify for the tournament after posting a negative goal difference in their group. Georgia recorded a goal difference of -6 and finished fourth (out of 5) behind Spain, Scotland and Norway, but qualified for the play-offs via the Nations League.
Manager Willy Sagnol will be the first ever Frenchman to manage a foreign nation at a European Championship. Sagnol won 58 caps for Les Bleus between 2000-2008, losing just one of his 12 appearances at major tournaments (W6 D5).
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will be Georgia’s main threat, having been their most prolific player during qualifying (4 goals, 1 assist). The Napoli winger also completed the joint-most dribbles of any player (including play-offs) along with Belgium’s Jérémy Doku (both 44).
Though they will be the underdogs of Group F, don’t count Georgia out. The supercomputer gives them a better than one-in-three chance of advancing to the knockout stage (37.2%).
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