Back-to-back wins against Qarabag and Ferencvárosi TC, coupled with poor results from other pre-tournament favourites, have seen Tottenham move to pole position in the Opta supercomputer’s projections to win the UEFA Europa League.
Tottenham Hotspur are now favourites to win the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League with the Opta supercomputer following the conclusion of Matchday 2.
With two wins from two against Qarabag and Ferencvárosi TC, Spurs are one of just five teams to still have a 100% record in the competition after the opening two matchdays, alongside Lazio, Lyon, FCSB and RSC Anderlecht.
When simulating the Europa League 10,000 times ahead of MD 1, Ange Postecoglou’s side won the competition in 8.6% of the simulations. That has now risen to 15.1%, above Serie A club Lazio (13.6%) and FC Porto (11.5%).
Lazio only won the Europa League in 6.1% of pre-season simulations by the supercomputer, but that has now increased to 13.6% following consecutive wins across the opening two matchdays against Dynamo Kyiv and Nice, tallying a competition-high seven goals.
Porto were the favourites ahead of MD 1, but a surprise away defeat to Bodø/Glimt in their opening game and a dramatic draw at home to Manchester United on MD 2 – a game in which they recovered from 2-0 down to lead 3-2 until a stoppage-time equaliser via Harry Maguire – have seen the Portuguese side drop to third favourites in the Opta supercomputer projections. They now have an 11.5% chance of winning the competition compared to 17.8% before a ball was kicked in 2024-25.
Spurs win the league phase of the competition in 24.7% of the latest Opta supercomputer simulations and secure a top-eight finish 80.5% of the time – both the highest of any club.
Lazio follow the Premier League side with respect to chances of finishing top in the league phase (20.4%), while Lyon – who have enjoyed wins over Olympiakos and Rangers in their two matches – are the only other side with more than a 10% likelihood of winning the league phase (11.7%).
Manchester United were only deemed to be sixth favourites before the competition began, lifting the trophy in 7.1% of the sims; after back-to-back draws with Twente and Porto, that’s dropped even further to 4.9%. The supercomputer now considers there to be as many as seven clubs likelier to go all the way, which is a pretty damning indictment of where the club now find themselves.
At the other end of the spectrum, it’s been a dreadful start to the 2024-25 Europa League for Turkish club Besiktas.
Following a 4-0 thrashing at Ajax and a 3-1 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt, and with a trip to high-flying Lyon to come next, they are projected to be eliminated at the league phase in 82.2% of the latest projections. Only Latvian side Rigas FS (84.6%) have a higher chance of elimination at this stage than they do.
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