With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Of course, Manchester City will take some beating when it comes to the title race, as Pep Guardiola’s men are chasing a record-extending fifth consecutive top-flight title and are overwhelming favourites to achieve that success.
Arsenal are hoping to push City all the way, and while Liverpool no longer have Jürgen Klopp at the helm, Arne Slot is now guiding a squad that’s very similar to the one that threatened to be a real challenger until the final weeks of 2023-24.
And no doubt we’re in store for another highly competitive UEFA Champions League qualification battle involving the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester United.
At the other end of the table, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton are hoping to fare better than the previous teams to be promoted from the Championship – all three were relegated in 2023-24.
Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 7
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next weekend of Premier League football in 2024-25.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming round of matches as the early part of the season sees the league table begin to take shape, with Liverpool in first place but just two points separating the top five.
Matchday 7 will see all the matches crammed into a busy weekend before the next international break, with seven on Saturday and three on Sunday.
Arsenal and Man City will be hopeful of recording home wins over Southampton and Fulham respectively, while leaders Liverpool have a testing trip to Crystal Palace.
Aston Villa will play Manchester United on Sunday in a huge match for under-pressure Red Devils boss Erik ten Hag, while Cole Palmer will hope to continue his fine form as Chelsea host Nottingham Forest.
Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 7: The Quick Hits
- Leaders Liverpool predicted to defeat Crystal Palace and make it six wins from seven games this season.
- The supercomputer thinks Man Utd’s recent woes could continue, with the Red Devils going in as underdogs against Aston Villa.
- Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City are all heavily backed to record home wins, with Mikel Arteta’s Gunners being the predictive model’s most confident pick of MD7.
Crystal Palace will welcome high-flying Liverpool to Selhurst Park still waiting for their first win of the 2024-25 season in the Saturday early fixture.
There was a shock win for Palace at Anfield in April that damaged Liverpool’s title hopes last season, but other than that the Reds have dominated this fixture, not losing any of the other most recent 13 Premier League meetings, with 11 wins in that run.
Arne Slot has made an impressive start and is looking to become just the fourth manager in competition history to win each of his first four away games after Luiz Felipe Scolari (first 8), John Gregory (5) and Bobby Gould (4). In-form Mohamed Salah also has the chance to score in a fourth straight away match to start the season. He’s done that once before (in the 2021-22 season) but no player has ever achieved the feat twice.
The Opta prediction model thinks Slot’s momentum is set to continue, handing Liverpool a win probability of 60.0%, the highest mark given to any away team this week, with Palace’s hopes of springing the upset down at 18.5%.
Arsenal are almost certain to defeat struggling Southampton at the Emirates Stadium, according to the Opta supercomputer. The Gunners are given a huge win probability of 78.5%, making them the highest conviction prediction of the week across all 10 matches, while Saints have just an 8.7% shot.
That is partly because the Gunners are unbeaten in their last 40 Premier League home games against promoted sides since 2010, winning 35 of those contests. They are closing on the record, as only Chelsea (43 between 2001 and 2015) and Manchester City (41 between 2007 and 2020) have had longer such runs in PL history.
Kai Havertz has been key to Arsenal’s strong start in 2024-25. He has scored six goals in his last six home games league games, a run that has included strikes in each of his last four appearances at the Emirates Stadium. The Germany forward could become the first player to score in five straight home league games for the Gunners since Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2019.
Despite not winning any of their last three Premier League matches, Brentford (47.4%) go in as favourites to defeat bottom-of-the-table Wolves (27.9%). Wolves do have a decent record at the Gtech Community Stadium, as they are unbeaten in their last five league games at the venue with three wins.
But they come into this one under huge pressure and to continue the strong run away to Brentford they will need to find a way to slow down Bryan Mbeumo. The Bees forward’s goal against West Ham last time out was his 48th Premier League goal involvement (27 goals, 21 assists), the outright most of any Brentford player. The Cameroon international is now hoping to net in a third consecutive top-flight game for the first time.
Leicester City will sense an opportunity to secure their first win of the campaign when they host Bournemouth. At 43.3% to 31.5%, Bournemouth are narrowly favoured but the system would not be surprised by any of the three outcomes. At 25.2% for the draw, this match is tied with Everton vs Newcastle as the most likely clash to finish all square this week.
Bournemouth have won each of the last three Premier League meetings between the sides, while Antoine Semenyo has been proving a handful for opposition defences.
With three goals, Semenyo is the only Cherries player to have scored more than once and only top EPL scorer Erling Haaland (31) has had more shots than him (28) so far this season. The Ghanaian has also completed the most dribbles (8) and had the most touches in the opposition box (34) of any Bournemouth player this term.
Leicester have also carried a threat going forward. They have scored in every game, but are without a clean sheet too. The only team to have a longer run of both scoring and conceding but remaining winless from the start of a Premier League campaign is Derby County in 2000-01 (first 8 matches).
Man City are on a rare two-match winless run in the Premier League going into their home clash with a Fulham team who have not lost since the opening day of the campaign.
But this fixture has been a story of total dominance for City, who have won their last 16 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, the longest winning run one English league side has had against another in history.
City are unbeaten in their last 29 Premier League games and if they avoid defeat in this match it will equal their longest run without defeat in their league history (30 games between April 2017 and January 2018). And Haaland continues to produce remarkable figures. He has scored 60 goals in just 52 games in all competitions at the Etihad Stadium, meaning he’s already the fourth-highest goalscorer at the ground since it opened in 2003.
Despite Fulham’s strong start to the campaign, Man City are not expected to have any problems here, with our predictive model backing them at a rate of 72.6%, with the visitors at 11.5%.
Just one win so far means West Ham (51.3%) have not made the start they wanted under Julen Lopetegui, so the pressure is on as they take on promoted Ipswich Town (24.9%).
Lopetegui is desperate to avoid becoming the 12th manager to lose his first four home Premier League matches in charge at a club. Ten of the 11 bosses to suffer that fate then saw their club relegated that season, with the only exception being Bryan Robson at West Brom in 2004-05.
But West Ham have not suffered four straight home league losses since 2019 and have been backed for victory by the system. However, Ipswich – who have drawn four in a row – still have a decent probability of getting something out of the game, with the chance of another draw rated at 23.8%.
After recording their first win last time out, Everton will welcome Newcastle to Goodison Park in the Saturday early evening fixture.
With 11 points in their first six Premier League games, visitors Newcastle have reached their highest total at this stage of a top-flight season since 2011-12 (12). Anthony Gordon has been on a good run, with 13 goal involvements (7 goals, 6 assists) in 23 Premier League appearances during this calendar year, but he is yet to score or assist against former club Everton.
Newcastle prevailed in 43.9% of our simulations, but Everton – who are eyeing consecutive wins for the first time since April – look set to be competitive and have a win probability of 30.9%, with the draw a big threat at 25.2%.
Aston Villa are already six points clear of top-four rivals Manchester United before the two teams do battle on Sunday. It was a famous win for Villa on Wednesday, as they defeated continental heavyweights Bayern Munich courtesy of a late strike from in-form supersub Jhon Durán. The mood is not so good at Man Utd, who have won just two of their first six EPL matches and are averaging under a goal per game.
One boost for under fire Ten Hag is United’s strong record against Villa. They have lost just one of their last 25 league trips to Villa Park, with 16 wins, although that sole defeat did come in Unai Emery’s first game in charge in November 2022 (3-1).
The impressive Durán averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in league play, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suárez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes). His strike partner Ollie Watkins, meanwhile, is looking to score in four games in a row for the first time since April 2023 and has now reached 36 goals and 19 assists in 67 league games under Emery.
Villa are favourites, but not overwhelmingly so with a win probability at 42.0%. Man Utd, who have kept clean sheets in their last two league away games, are in the mix at 33.2%, while the draw is also a contender at 24.8%.
Chelsea will look to continue their impressive start at home to a Nottingham Forest team who suffered their first defeat last time out.
Forest did win at Stamford Bridge last season, but they will face a Chelsea side which is flying this time around, having won nine of their last 11 league games, netting at least twice in eight of those victories. The Blues are the top scorers in the league this season (15), and also have the highest shot conversion rate (20.3%).
With Cole Palmer flying after his stunning four-goal haul against Brighton, Jadon Sancho has also made a fine start to life at Chelsea. With three straight assists for the club so far, he could match Cesc Fàbregas (Chelsea) and Chris Waddle (Sunderland) among the only Premier League players to register an assist in each of their first four games with a club.
While Chelsea’s win probability of 66.7% is not quite as high as the rates given to Arsenal and Man City, the supercomputer is still very confident of a home win in this one.
The last match of the weekend will see Brighton take on Tottenham, with just one point and one league position separating the two teams going into this weekend. Our predictive model thinks the match will be similarly tight, rating Spurs only marginally ahead at 41.2% to 34.3%, meaning both sides have everything to play for.
Spurs will be pleased to see Dominic Solanke finding his feet ahead of this game. Since the start of last season, the only English players with more Premier League goals than him (21) are Palmer (28) and Watkins (23), with Solanke now looking to find the net in three consecutive top-flight appearances for the first time since last December.
But Brighton have asserted good control over their matches so far. The Seagulls are averaging 61.5% possession in top-flight games this season, their highest in a single campaign in the competition.
It looks like we could be in for a tight clash to round out the weekend, although it is worth noting only one of the 14 previous Premier League meetings have finished in a draw, with Spurs, who impressed at Man Utd last week, having recorded nine victories to Brighton’s four.
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