It has been a whirlwind year and a bit at Chelsea for Cole Palmer, with four goals against Brighton last weekend his latest achievement. We take a look at the data behind the ‘coldest’ player in the Premier League.
When Cole Palmer scores, he rubs his shoulders in recognition of his nickname, Cold Palmer.
The moniker is not due to him being socially distant or thinking puppies aren’t cute, but his ice-cool temperament in front of goal. You might think Goal Palmer would have been a better name, but there we are.
We’re even seeing players copying Palmer’s celebration; players whose names don’t even rhyme with the word ‘cold’, or any variant of. Unless you’re Declan Ice, Chill Foden, or Brrr-ling Haaland, maybe just give it the old Brazilian Ronaldo finger wag next time.
Palmer has earned that sincerest form of flattery. He has excelled since he left Manchester City for Chelsea in search of regular playing time at the end of the 2023 summer transfer window. It was a transfer that seemed to come from nowhere, and yet it was probably the best piece of business Chelsea had done since they signed a young Belgian by the name of Eden Hazard in 2012.
Saturday arguably saw the zenith of Palmer’s form at Stamford Bridge. The England international tormented Brighton & Hove Albion, scoring all four goals for the hosts in their 4-2 victory. If he’d have rubbed his shoulders in celebration any more, Chelsea’s sleeve sponsor would probably have worn away.
All four strikes came in a hectic first half in west London, meaning Palmer became the first player in Premier League history to score four goals before half-time in a single match. Having also bagged four in Chelsea’s 6-0 win against Everton last season, he also became only the second Blues player to score four goals in two different Premier League games, after Frank Lampard in 2008 (against Derby County) and 2010 (against Aston Villa).
Palmer had already threatened to do damage to Brighton, who took an early lead through Georginio Rutter. The Chelsea star raced in behind the Seagulls’ high line twice, once hitting the post and once seeing a goal ruled out for offside. Then in the 21st minute he latched on to Nicolas Jackson’s pass after the Senegalese forward pounced on a soft back pass to equalise.
A penalty was then won by Jadon Sancho and dispatched by Palmer, making it his 10th successful spot-kick in the Premier League out of 10 attempts. Only Yaya Toure (11/11) has a 100% record from more attempts in the competition.
A wonderful free-kick bent into Bart Verbruggen’s top-left corner made it 3-1, before Carlos Baleba pulled one back for the visitors as defending from both teams had seemingly become nothing more than a suggestion at Stamford Bridge. Palmer soon restored the two-goal cushion, though, making a superb run for Sancho to slide him in before he slammed a finish into Verbruggen’s near post.
Palmer did not only score four goals; he did so with just 19 minutes and 57 seconds between his first and fourth efforts. Only Jermain Defoe (for Tottenham vs Wigan in November 2009) has ever scored four Premier League goals in a quicker time in the competition (17min 56s).
Palmer ended the game having attempted seven shots, with no player having totalled more in a Premier League game this season, while his personal expected goals total of 2.41 was at least 0.52 xG more than any other player has recorded (the next highest being Kai Havertz vs Leicester City – 1.89).
It was a stunning showing from the 22-year-old, but it also didn’t come as much of a surprise.
Since he joined Chelsea on 1 September 2023, only Harry Kane has recorded more goal involvements in one of Europe’s top five leagues (49 – 38 goals, 11 assists) than Palmer’s 43 (28 goals, 15 assists). That’s ahead of Erling Haaland (39 – 34 goals, 5 assists), Kylian Mbappé (37 – 29 goals, 8 assists) and Ollie Watkins (36 – 23 goals, 13 assists).
It should be borne in mind that 10 of Palmer’s goals have been penalties, but even removing spot-kicks, only Kane (43) and Watkins (36) are ahead of his 33 goal involvements.
We looked at Palmer’s trajectory in this week’s Stat, Viz, Quiz newsletter, in which we mentioned that his 10 goal involvements in six Premier League games has him well on course to break the competition record. That record currently stands at 47 from both Andrew Cole (1993-94) and Alan Shearer (1994-95), though they were in 42-game seasons. In a 38-game campaign, the record is 44, set by Thierry Henry in 2002-03 and equalled by Erling Haaland in 2022-23.
Palmer needs another 35 in a potential 32 games to beat the 38-game record. It’s a big ask, but then he’s clearly a big player.
He has the most assists in the Premier League (15) since his move to Chelsea, while only Haaland (34) has scored more Premier League goals in that time, with Palmer (28) five goals clear of third-placed Watkins (23). Five of them have come from outside the box, with only Phil Foden (six) scoring more in that time.
Palmer was impressive last season under Mauricio Pochettino, but Chelsea’s new head coach Enzo Maresca also seems to be getting plenty out of his star player.
As you can see from Palmer’s touch zone map from last season at Chelsea compared to so far this season, it appears as though he is playing a little wider and deeper, drifting more to the right, which allows him to turn inside onto his wand of a left foot and try to release a teammate. He’s maintaining his output despite not touching the ball inside the opposition’s penalty box as often.
Given his creativity this season, it is no surprise that Palmer has the highest xG assisted total in the Premier League (the total xG of shots taken following chance-creating passes). Palmer leads the way with 3.18 after six games, with only Bukayo Saka (2.43) and Dwight McNeil (2.34) even within 1.0 of his total.
It could be due to his eagerness to move the ball with purpose. Only eight players have made more than Palmer’s 28 progressive passes in the Premier League this season, while of midfielders or forwards to attempt at least 100 passes, only McNeil (19.2 metres) has averaged a longer distance of successful pass than Palmer’s 18.9m.
Palmer also likes to carry the ball (a carry is defined as a player moving five metres or more with the ball). He averages 12m per carry in the Premier League this season, with only four of the 23 players who have attempted more than his 84 total carries averaging further.
He has the most carries ending with an assist (three) in the Premier League, while only Gabriel Martinelli and Dominik Szoboszlai (both seven) have more carries finishing with a chance created than Palmer’s six.
Essentially, when Palmer gets the ball, the opponent doesn’t know whether to expect a pass or a carry. The only near-certain thing is that whatever he chooses to do will be effective.
No player in the Premier League has created more than Palmer’s 15 chances from open play this season (Dejan Kulusevski also has 15 to his name) while only Saka (nine) has recorded as many as Palmer’s seven big chances created. A ‘big chance’ is defined as a situation where a player has a reasonable expectation of scoring a goal.
When he’s not creating for others, Palmer is taking things on himself, as perfectly shown with his four-goal haul at the weekend. Only four players have attempted more than Palmer’s 18 total shots in the Premier League this season. In fact, if you add together shots attempted and chances created from open play, only Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo (34) has more in total than Palmer’s 33.
When Manchester City agreed to sell him just over a year ago, it seemed a sensible solution for all parties. City got a reported fee of £40 million, Chelsea got a bright young player, and Palmer moved to a team where he would play regularly. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but surely City will be kicking themselves just a little bit.
They’ve still been successful without him, of course, but it’s difficult to understand how a player of his quality wouldn’t have played a big role in Guardiola’s team, especially when at the time he was sold, the club already knew Kevin De Bruyne would be sidelined for the first half of last season. Palmer did play alongside Haaland occasionally in 2022-23, but it is quite tempting to think how those two would be linking up now given the levels both are reaching.
City’s loss has very much been Chelsea’s gain, though, and while the Blues have spent the sort of money that would make most billionaires blush in the last few years, there is no question that they got a bargain in Palmer.
His fourth goal on Saturday was Palmer’s 50th goal involvement for Chelsea in just 53 games in all competitions. In a team that has struggled for consistency in the time Palmer has been there, it makes his consistent output all the more impressive, with little sign that it’ll slow down.
What’s for certain is that Palmer is now rubbing shoulders with the best, both figuratively and literally.
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