Erik ten Hag is reportedly guaranteed at least another two matches in charge of Manchester United. But beyond that, is there really any hope for him long term?
For Manchester United and Erik ten Hag, there’s an unmistakable feeling the end could now be in sight. A partnership that perhaps once promised much appears to be on the precipice, with Sunday’s 3-0 humiliation by Tottenham seeing the pressure arguably reach a previously unseen level ahead of Thursday’s trip to Porto.
While Ten Hag insisted on pointing to Bruno Fernandes’ first-half red card as a contributing factor in Sunday’s defeat, United were already 1-0 down at that point and had turned in a dismal performance; they were lucky to be only a goal behind.
It now seems as though Ten Hag has two matches to save his job. United are in Portugal in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, before taking on Aston Villa at Villa Park in the Premier League three days later. Without a dramatic turnaround in their fortunes across those two very tough games, it’s hardly difficult to imagine United making a change during the international break.
Whether that’s truly the right course of action to break Man Utd’s seemingly never-ending cycle of fresh starts, who’s to say? But Ten Hag’s time in charge has been full of new lows, and eventually there comes a point of no return.
Another Underwhelming Start
While the concerns around Ten Hag don’t just relate to this season, United’s start to 2024-25 feels like a sensible place to begin.
This is almost as bad as it’s ever been for United at the start of a Premier League campaign. Their haul of seven points is the joint fewest they’ve accumulated after six games, along with 2020-21 (Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s second full season) and 2013-14 (David Moyes’ only season), while only in 2007-08 (four) have they ever scored fewer goals at this point of a season (five in 2024-25).
That’s contributed to them having a goal difference of -3, which is their second worst at this stage of a season after -4 in 2020-21. Of course, it’s worth remembering that United recovered pretty well in 2020-21, ultimately finishing second in the Premier League – albeit their 74 points would’ve only been enough to finish fourth in 2023-24 and 2022-23.
Either way, such a recovery in 2024-25 would be quite a feat, but even the chance of a top-four finish feels as though it’s quickly slipping from their reach.
Sunday’s loss to Spurs was their second consecutive Premier League home defeat without scoring, last enduring such results back-to-back at Old Trafford in Solskjaer’s final two home matches at the helm in November 2021.
Further to that, United’s 4.6 expected goals against (xGA) at the weekend was their most in a single game in any competition since Arsenal created 4.7 xG against them in December 2017 – indeed, that was the infamous 3-1 win at the Emirates in which David de Gea produced the performance of a lifetime.
United did play much of the game against Spurs with only 10 men following Fernandes’ unfortunate red card, for which the ban was subsequently rescinded, so there is that caveat. Ange Postecoglou’s side were so superior even when it was 11v11, though.
Their prior Old Trafford defeat was of course to Liverpool at the start of September, also succumbing 3-0. Having lost 2-1 to Brighton before that, Ten Hag became the first United manager to lose two of the opening three games of a Premier League season more than once.
While they’ve been unlucky in front of goal at times, overall it’s another slow start that calls into question the idea that they’re making any progress.
Playing Style Concerns
It’s widely accepted that Ten Hag was hired at least partly because of the style of football his Ajax team played. They dominated the ball and were attack-minded, and his arrival at Old Trafford certainly brought excitement about a new direction on the pitch.
And there have been times when United have looked exciting under Ten Hag, with those Europa League matches against Barcelona in early 2023 immediately springing to mind.
But such instances have been less commonplace than occasions of United getting utterly battered.
Ten Hag did say in his very first press conference at United that the players available to him would have to dictate the style to a degree, but the regularity at which they’ve signed individuals either known to Ten Hag or previously managed by him has suggested a desire to somewhat recreate elements of what he had at Ajax.
There may be a concerted plan to play out from the back, and as the graphic below highlights, this season they appear to be making a greater effort to keep the ball for longer.
However, the next graphic shows how they’re still pretty far off being regarded as playing a “slow and intricate” style of play, like Manchester City for example.
Ten Hag’s United have mostly been a transition-based team – arguably not too dissimilar in that regard then to Solskjaer’s side. Certainly, they cannot be considered a possession-dominant side.
Across Ten Hag’s two and a bit years in charge, United’s average share of possession in the Premier League is 52.2%, less than that of six clubs. And while that might not sound so damning, the fact Brighton have managed 60.4% over the same period highlights that this isn’t unattainable.
Granted, there’s not only one way to play; you don’t have to try to monopolise the ball. United have shown quality in transition and their 241 shots in transition was 42 more than any other Premier League club in 2022-23, while they also topped the charts for goals from fast breaks (nine) the same season.
But the lack of control they’ve been guilty of has so often caused them harm. Only Luton Town (215) and Newcastle (208) faced more shots in transition than United last term (205), while United were also third only to that pair for shots conceded following fast breaks (35).
Additionally, United’s opponents reached the final third 620 times in transition in 2023-24, more than any other team. They also rank poorly pretty much across the board in transition/fast break metrics in 2024-25.
This all feeds into the fact that United have faced the second-most shots (741) in the Premier League since the start of last season, 112 more than they’ve attempted.
Over the same period, teams United fans will feel they are obliged to be challenging have recorded comfortably more shots than they’ve faced (Manchester City +470, Liverpool +412 and Arsenal +324).
The graphic below hammers the point home: too often over the past year or so, United have been less of a threat to their opponents’ goal than their opponents have been to theirs.
Fans will feel that’s unacceptable for Manchester United.
The Bigger Picture
Of course, United’s start to 2024-25 and concerns over their playing style are part of a broader story.
While it’s not necessarily something you can precisely quantify, some would argue United are further away from looking like a title-challenging team than at any other point in Ten Hag’s tenure.
As of Thursday’s game against Porto, the Dutchman will have been in charge officially for 825 days, going back to the start of his contract on 1 July 2022. On average, managers that have left a Premier League club since 2014-15 (excluding current managers, interim/caretakers, and Jürgen Klopp) had been in charge for 630 days. Sure, there’s no definitive answer to how long a manager needs and every club’s situation is different, but he’s had more time than most get.
The problem is that period has been littered with lows, while supporters have seen other clubs appoint managers who’ve almost immediately enjoyed some success in implementing changes or a new style of play.
Sunday’s loss to Spurs was the eighth time under Ten Hag that United have lost by three or more goals in the Premier League, with only Gary O’Neil, David Moyes and Sean Dyche (all nine) suffering more similarly heavy defeats in that time. What makes that even worse is the fact United have only won seven league games by three or more goals over the same period.
United’s 10 defeats by 3+ goals in all competitions with Ten Hag in charge is double that of any other manager since Alex Ferguson. Solskjaer lost five, but then his United side also won by 3+ goals 30 times, whereas the current boss has only managed 13.
Half of Ten Hag’s defeats by 3+ goals have come at Old Trafford (five), which is the same amount as all other United managers post-Ferguson combined.
Of course, it’s not just heavy defeats that have come to characterise Ten Hag’s time in charge. The 2023-24 season was a campaign of unprecedented lows for them in the Premier League, finishing lower than ever before in eighth and with a negative goal difference for the first time.
Furthermore, 58 goals conceded was their most in a single season since 1978-79 (63 – in a 42-game season) and they suffered 14 league defeats, a new club record in the Premier League era, two more even than the team recorded in Moyes’ ill-fated 2013-14.
It would be unfair to completely overlook the injury crisis United had to face in 2023-24, because it was significant. But their form at the start of 2024-25 understandably has some wondering how much of an impact it actually made considering results haven’t exactly improved.
There’s no magic roadmap that points the way in football, and who’s to say Ten Hag can’t turn United around eventually? Maybe he would with more time – but the point many are making is that perhaps he’s had enough. Other managers elsewhere have shown it doesn’t necessarily need to take years to transform a club’s performances, and no one would look at United’s squad and say it lacks quality.
While Ten Hag has won two trophies, as he frequently points out, that’s not necessarily a great barometer of a manager’s performance; a league campaign provides a more conclusive assessment and United have underwhelmed in the Premier League for over a year.
What other top clubs would accept being so far short of expectations for so long?
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