The Opta supercomputer predicts that Manchester United’s poor form will continue on Thursday night in Portugal. We look ahead to this UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 clash with our FC Porto vs Manchester United prediction and preview.
Porto vs Manchester United Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 12 major European matches against Portuguese clubs (W9 D3) since losing 2-1 to Benfica in December 2005.
- Porto have won their last three major European home matches, all in last season’s UEFA Champions League. They haven’t won four in a row since March 2019.
- Man Utd’s last four away European matches have seen 23 goals scored (9 for, 14 against), at an average of 5.75 per game.
“Nothing is easy, but this is nothing for me to panic about,” Erik ten Hag told Sky Sports earlier this week. That follows a run of just three wins in nine competitive fixtures this season, with one of those victories coming in the League Cup over third-tier side Barnsley at Old Trafford.
Ten Hag will be feeling the pressure if his United side lose in Porto on Thursday night, in a fixture that is far from easy for the Dutch boss and his side. The Portuguese giants have won seven of their nine competitive games so far this season, but one of those two defeats came in a shock 3-2 loss in Norway on Matchday 1 of this competition to Bodø/Glimt, despite taking an early lead. Porto attempted 28 shots in that game, their most in a major European competition match since March 2019 against Roma in the Champions League (31).
United hardly impressed in their own Europa League opener, either. Their 1-1 home draw with unfancied Dutch side FC Twente saw them take a first-half lead via Christian Eriksen but fail to hold on to all three points despite having nearly three times as many attempts as their opponents (19-7). That draw meant Man Utd have now gone on to win just one of their last six major European matches in which they have taken the lead (D3 L2).
Ten Hag’s side suffered a disastrous 3-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford on Sunday in the Premier League, with Bruno Fernandes being given a straight red card in the first half. Originally given a three-match ban for his dismissal, that suspension has now been overturned upon review.
Fernandes would have likely started this match regardless, with the ban not applying to non-domestic competition, and the Portuguese is a player that United have relied upon heavily since he signed from Sporting CP in January 2020.
Since his debut on 1 February 2020, Fernandes has both played (242) and started (228) more competitive matches than any other Premier League player, while his 148 goal involvements (79 goals, 69 assists) are 46 more than any other Manchester United player across that time (Marcus Rashford, 102).
Estádio do Dragão is not an easy venue for any away side to play in, with Porto having lost just one of their last 22 competitive matches there (W18 D4) and winning each of their last three European fixtures in their home stadium. They will be looking to win four consecutive European matches at the Dragão for the first time since March 2019.
They were victorious there on Sunday in their league meeting with Arouca (4-0), with Samu Omorodion among the goals once again. The Spanish forward, signed this summer from Atlético Madrid, has started his Porto career with four goals in four games across all competitions.
Porto head coach Vitor Bruno, who replaced long-term boss Sérgio Conceição in the summer, has started well at his new club. With 18 points from seven games, they find themselves behind only defending champions Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga table, while they already have silverware in 2024-25 after defeating the league leaders 4-3 in the Portuguese Super Cup at the start of the season, despite being 3-0 down inside 24 minutes.
United are likely to be without Harry Maguire, Kobbie Mainoo and Mason Mount with short-term injuries, while Luke Shaw, Tyrell Malacia and Leny Yoro remain on the sidelines with longer term issues. Rasmus Højlund may be handed his first start of the 2024-25 campaign after three successive substitute appearances following his early-season injury absence.
Porto vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
This will be the ninth competitive meeting between Porto and Manchester United, with the English club coming out on top three times, including their last clash in April 2009. That match was decided by a wonderful long-range strike via Cristiano Ronaldo at the Dragão.
Porto’s only win over United this century came at home in February 2004, winning 2-1 in the first leg of their last 16 tie, before they drew 1-1 in the second leg at Old Trafford on the way to winning the UEFA Champions League in 2003-04. The draw in Manchester is largely remembered for José Mourinho’s exuberant celebrations down the Old Trafford touchline following Costinha’s tie-winning goal in added time.
Porto vs Manchester United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes FC Porto favourites for Thursday night’s UEFA Europa League clash, with the hosts winning 55.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Manchester United won just over a fifth of the sims before kick-off (21.4%) while they came away with a draw in 22.9% of outcomes.
Overall, Porto are still the Opta supercomputer favourites for the Europa League title in 2024-25, with the Portuguese giants winning 12.8% of current simulations. Man Utd are 10th favourites heading into MD 2, with a 4% chance of European glory this season.
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