The 12 teams still left standing will vie for the right to be called World Series champions. And we’re ranking them, starting with those with the best chances of winning it all.
Without a team that reached triple-digit victories during the regular season, the 2024 edition of the MLB playoffs figures to be an open, unpredictable tournament.
Each of the 12 clubs has to feel like it has a real chance to make a run at the ultimate prize: winning the World Series.
Seeds have proven to mean little in recent MLB postseasons, so a little bit more should go into ranking each team’s playoff chances than just listing them by seed. That’s where our projection model comes in.
It incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule to calculate an expected run differential per 27 outs, which is used to the simulate the postseason and produce our MLB playoff probabilities.
TRACR takes into account advanced metrics and other factors on offense and in run prevention (pitching and defense) to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season.
Here are the teams with the best chance to win it all, per our model.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Record/Seed: 98-64/No. 1 in National League
- TRACR: 1.14/1st
- Raw Value: 117.5/2nd
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 33.4%/1st
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 19.4%/1st
The Dodgers own the best record in baseball and have Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, but just winning the NL pennant will prove to be a difficult task given the tough competition in the National League.
Still, many see them, and not the Yankees or the Philadelphia Phillies, as the team to beat in MLB. And our projection model agrees.
The NL West champions’ 1.14 overall TRACR is the best in baseball, and it’s second in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR). Of course, when you have Ohtani (54 HR, 59 SB), Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez (33 HR, 99 RBI) and Will Smith, your lineup will produce. A lot.
Speaking of Freeman, he tweaked his ankle last week, but the team is hopeful he can return for the National League Division Series.
Pitching, however, could be the club’s Achilles heel. With all their injuries, the Dodgers rank 14th in defensive TRACR (D-TRACR). Clayton Kershaw’s status is uncertain for the postseason, while Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone are out.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA, 90 IP) and Jack Flaherty (6-2, 3.58 ERA) will have to lead a decimated staff that also includes Walker Buehler and Landon Knack. It’s certainly not an ideal scenario for the blues, who await the Braves-Padres winner in the NLDS.
2. New York Yankees
- Record/Seed: 94-68/No. 1 in American League
- TRACR: 1.05/2nd
- Raw Value: 122.3/2nd
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 35.3%/1st
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 18.2%/2nd
A couple of National League teams finished with a better record than the Yankees, but they have the best second-best odds of winning the Fall Classic.
They might be a bit inconsistent, and their bullpen is certainly not as dominant as past editions, but the AL East champs are a powerhouse. Their TRACR is an elite 1.05, the best in the American League and second only to the Dodgers (1.14). Additionally, they are a balanced, well-rounded team and that becomes evident with their offensive (third, 0.74) and defensive (10th, minus-0.32) rankings in TRACR.
The Bronx Bombers are also elite in overall raw value (second), offensive RV+ (second) and pitching RV- (eighth). RV+ measures contact, plate discipline and damage done upon contact with the league average being 100, while RV- measures pitchers’ ability to stymie those abilities.
The team recently lost Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu, and the rotation suffered a huge blow with Nestor Cortes’ injury. Need not to worry, though, because it still has five excellent options to start in Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman. The latter isn’t even a lock to make the ALDS roster given his recent struggles.
The true strength of his team lies in the All-World sluggers near the top of the lineup: Aaron Judge (58 HR, MLB-best 207.7 RV+) and Juan Soto (second with 205.4 RV+). If the Yanks can get production from those supporting these two megastars, namely Jazz Chisholm Jr., Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells, they will be in good shape.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
- Record/Seed: 95-67/No. 2 in NL
- TRACR: 0.57/10th
- Raw Value: 111.9/8th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 21.9%/4th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 11.1%/3rd
Let’s all give the Phillies some respect. This is a fantastic squad that has been on the verge of a title for a couple of years now and looks better than ever.
The Phils are 10th in TRACR at 0.57, fifth in O-TRACR (0.48) and 16th in D-TRACR with -0.09. They’re also eighth in overall RV, ninth in RV+ and ninth in RV-.
The Phillies are relatively healthy entering the playoffs (other than outfielder Austin Hays) and boast a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Zack Wheeler’s 64 RV- ranking second in baseball and Aaron Nola sporting a rock-solid 3.52 ERA in 194.1 innings.
Christopher Sanchez has been a fine third starter, but there is concern about Ranger Suarez’s second half. He posted a 2.76 ERA in the first half and a 5.65 mark after the break.
The offense shows incredible firepower as usual: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber (38 home runs in 2024), Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and more. The Phillies will be a tough matchup for anyone, as they have shown in recent postseasons.
4. Cleveland Guardians
- Record/Seed: 92-69/No. 2 in AL
- TRACR: 0.48/13th
- Raw Value: 90.6/25th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 22.0%/3rd
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 11.1%/4th
The Guardians will be a tough team to beat in the AL’s playoff picture mainly on the strength of a dominant bullpen. The unit has a league-leading 79.8 RV- and boasts the best and most consistent closer in baseball in Emmanuel Clase (0.61 ERA in 74.1 IP).
Their defensive TRACR of -0.58 ranks third in baseball, and it would flirt with the top spot with a better rotation. They lost ace Shane Bieber to injury and while Tanner Bibee has been solid (3.47 ERA in 173.2 IP), he might be a tier short of ace status.
What Cleveland can do is leverage its bullpen into postseason victories by having its starters on a quick hook. Five innings and then pass things over to the elite relief corps to shut things down. Think 2015 Kansas City Royals.
Offensively, Jose Ramirez is having one of the finest seasons of his career, finishing just one homer short of a 40-40 season. Kyle Manzardo has blossomed into a legit middle-of-the-order producer, and Steven Kwan remains a good leadoff hitter even if he slumped badly in the second half (.618 OPS). Josh Naylor (31 HR, 108 RBI) had a career-best campaign in the power and run-production department.
These Guardians are very much like their 2022 edition, but with more power and a slightly worse rotation. They could be very, very dangerous despite that disappointing overall raw value.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
- Record/Seed: 93-69/No. 3 in NL
- TRACR: 0.80/3rd
- Raw Value: 96.4/17th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 13.2%/6th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 7.3%/5th
The Dodgers and Yankees finished with the two best run differentials in baseball. Do you want to guess which team ranked third? That’s right, the Brewers. In the same season in which they lost executive David Stearns, manager Craig Counsell, and aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff.
The Brewers, who easily finished atop the NL Central standings, are third in overall TRACR (0.80), seventh in O-TRACR and fifth in D-TRACR. The absences of Burnes and Woodruff, the latter due to injury, did affect the rotation as it ranked 19th in RV- (105).
William Contreras (28th in RV+) and Willy Adames (32 HR, 112 RBI) lead an offense that ranked 17th in RV+ but will have to enter the postseason without the talented Christian Yelich. Budding stars Jackson Chourio and Bryce Turang (50 SB) are perfect complementary pieces.
All things considered, Milwaukee is a well-coached, talented team that will try to return to the NLCS for the first time since 2018. The Brewers take on the visiting New York Mets in Game 1 of their wild-card series on Tuesday.
6. San Diego Padres
- Record/Seed: 93-69/No. 4 in NL
- TRACR: 0.70/5th
- Raw Value: 121.4/3rd
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 13.8%/5th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 6.6%/6th
The Padres, in case you don’t recall, were trying to cut payroll before the season and traded Juan Soto to do so. Yet here they are, making the postseason with 93 wins to boot.
San Diego is a solid ball club and the numbers back that up. The Padres have the third-best overall RV, the fifth-best offensive RV+ and fifth-best pitching RV-. TRACR has them as the fifth-best squad in baseball, too.
Other than Ha-Seong Kim, they are also relatively healthy. Is this team capable of going all the way? The superstar talent is there: Dylan Cease ranked fifth in RV- and Michael King was 12th,
Jackson Merrill (137.3 RV+) has blossomed into one of MLB’s best young players, and they still have Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. Their bullpen, sixth in MLB according to RV-, is also a weapon.
Keep an eye on the Friars.
7. Houston Astros
- Record/Seed: 88-73/No. 3 in AL
- TRACR: 0.62/7th
- Raw Value: 117.4/5th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 12.2%/7th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 5.6%/7th
Early in the season, it seemed like the Astros’ run of dominance was coming to an end. But there’s a reason they play 162 games. Houston rallied and won the AL West. Again.
The Astros are still a dangerous team and their rotation, perceived by some as one of their weakest units, might actually be a strength.
Framber Valdez (1.73 ERA in September), Ronel Blanco (0.75), Hunter Brown (3.13) and Spencer Arrighetti (3.92) all thrived in the last month of the season.
It might all come down to the health of Yordan Alvarez’s (169.4 RV+, sixth in MLB) knee ahead of the wild-card round, though. Their lineup is explosive as always, but Air Yordan gives it that extra competitive edge when the stakes are high.
8. Baltimore Orioles
- Record/Seed: 91-71/No. 4 in AL
- TRACR: 0.54/11th
- Raw Value: 109.3/9th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 11.5%/8th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 4.2%/8th
After they won 101 games last year, the 2024 campaign wasn’t as smooth for the Orioles. It was still a solid effort that landed them the fourth seed and home-field advantage against the Kansas City Royals in an AL wild-card series.
To the contrary of past years, they now have an ace in Corbin Burnes. It’s too bad we won’t see some of the best at their craft with starters Kyle Bradish, John Means and Grayson Rodriguez and closer Felix Bautista all injured.
But the O’s have remained competitive thanks to a top offense led by Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and top AL Rookie of the Year candidate Colton Cowser.
Given the pitching injuries, it will likely be the offense will have to carry most of the load.
9. Detroit Tigers
- Record/Seed: 86-76/No. 6 in AL
- TRACR: 0.24/15th
- Raw Value: 104.1/11th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 9.4%/10th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 4.0%/9th
The Tigers, MLB’s hottest team in the second half, showed what they are made of and make the postseason for the first time in 10 years. This is a team with an elite manager in AJ Hinch who knows how to win close games. That, in the playoffs, matters.
Tarik Skubal is a true ace, taking home the American League pitching Triple Crown. The left-hander is worth his weight in gold in a short postseason series.
Offensively, Kerry Carpenter has blossomed into a legit contributor and Riley Greene is an underrated star. This is a young, hungry team with nothing to lose facing a big favorite in the Astros to open Tuesday’s playoff schedule. Anything can happen.
10. Atlanta Braves
- Record/Seed: 89-73/No. 5 in NL
- TRACR: 0.75/4th
- Raw Value: 122.4/1st
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 5.7%/12th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 3.6%/11th
Without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley, the batting order loses some flair and upside. They do have All-Star slugger Marcell Ozuna and his fourth-ranked RV+, though.
Leading the rotation is the rejuvenated Chris Sale, the MLB leader in pitching RV- (-61.1), though he’s dealing with a back issue and was unable to start in Monday’s doubleheader. Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez complete a potentially solid top three.
Atlanta is not the powerhouse it used to be in recent seasons after barely earning an NL wild-card spot, but that doesn’t make it is an easy opponent.
11. Kansas City Royals
- Record/Seed: 86-76/No. 5 in AL
- TRACR: 0.49/12th
- Raw Value: 100.0/16th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 9.5%/9th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 3.6%/10th
Thanks to an MVP-caliber season by Bobby Witt Jr. and some savvy, aggressive offseason investments, the Royals returned to the postseason for the first time since that 2015 campaign when they won it all.
If Vinnie Pasquantino can make it back from injury, it will be a major boost to a lineup that needs it. The pitching overall hasn’t been special, but they have an ace in Cole Ragans. The left-hander, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Brady Singer all finished the season with an ERA under 4.00.
12. New York Mets
- Record/Seed: 89-73/No. 6 in NL
- TRACR: 0.57/10th
- Raw Value: 114.9/6th
- Probability of Winning the Pennant: 8.1%/11th
- Probability of Winning the World Series: 3.4%/12th
The Mets weren’t even supposed to contend in 2024, according to their own executives. But they have been one of the best teams in baseball after a truly ugly start and earned a playoff berth by splitting a doubleheader with Atlanta on Monday.
If Francisco Lindor has truly left behind a problematic back injury he has been trying to overcome since mid-September, this team has a chance. They have an elite power hitter Pete Alonso, a surging young hitter in Mark Vientos, and other veterans contributing.
Even if Kodai Senga is a total question mark heading into the postseason, the team has a solid staff in Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea and David Peterson.
The Mets could be a problem.
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