We return with our weekly dose of all-too-reactive judgements on the Premier League‘s action… starting with a thought on Sunday’s game between Arsenal and Manchester City.
There is Zero Room For Error in This Title Race
With 97 minutes played at the Etihad and Arsenal on the brink of a famous win away to Manchester City, Mikel Arteta’s side were headed for the top of the table. One minute later, after John Stones had scored the latest City goal on record (since 2006-07) in a Premier League match, the home side were back on top of the pile, still unbeaten and setting the pace in their quest for a fifth straight top-flight title. These are the kind of tight margins we are going to see this season.
Arsenal had spent the entire second half playing with 10 men after Leandro Trossard’s red card, camped deep inside their own half and offering no attacking threat as they dug in to protect their slender lead. And they so nearly succeeded, with City largely restricted to shots from distance as Arsenal’s 6-3-0 low block stood strong deep into stoppage time.
City had 87.6% of the ball in the second half and 28 shots but struggled to find a way through Arsenal’s stubborn defence. But in the end there was a way through, as Arsenal’s defenders switched off for a split second to allow City to take a quick short corner. Their players then converged on their own goal in panic, but that opened up space on the penalty spot for Mateo Kovacic to have a shot, which eventually fell to Stones to finish from close range.
It was hardly an error from anyone in particular, but that’s all it takes for a team like City to find a goal. The room for error in this title race is going to be incredibly slim, and Arsenal are going to need to be absolutely perfect in big moments like that if they are to break City’s monopoly on Premier League titles.
The Gap Between Top and Bottom is Going to be Bigger Than Ever
For the first time in top-flight history in English men’s football, six teams have failed to win any of their opening five matches. Although both Southampton and Everton picked up a point this weekend and therefore have no longer lost all of their games so far, they are still tied in the relegation zone on just one point, along with Wolves.
According to our pre-season analysis of the fixture schedule, Southampton and Everton had the fourth- and fifth-easiest opening five games of 2024-25, so things could get worse for both as their fixtures get more difficult in the weeks to come.
Meanwhile, according to our expected points model, which essentially shows how the Premier League table ‘should’ look based on the quality of chances each team has created and conceded, two of the other winless teams – Ipswich and Leicester City – have put in performances worthy of the bottom two positions in the table, when they are actually 15th and 17th. Without some major improvements, they could slip further down the league.
At the other end of the table, City, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal all look ominously strong. It’s hard to imagine any of those teams slipping up against the teams fighting the drop.
The disparity between the top and bottom of the Premier League has been increasing seemingly exponentially in recent years, and it looks like it could get even bigger this season. The way Arsenal and City are pushing each other in the title race means we could get another big points total for the winners, while teams at the bottom are struggling to get any at all.
Jhon Durán Deserves a Start
Unai Emery has a bit of a conundrum with Jhon Durán. He can’t stop scoring, now on four goals for the season despite playing just 131 minutes. He has a goal every 33 minutes in 2024-25, and boasts the second-best minutes-per-goal rate of all players in Premier League history, averaging one every 79.9 minutes (minimum two goals), just behind Erling Haaland (one every 79.2 minutes). Durán was also only denied a debut Champions League goal in his 31-minute cameo in midweek by a late VAR call.
It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Durán to argue that he deserves a start.
But the Aston Villa forward is also quite possibly the best substitute the Premier League has ever seen. With four goals from the bench in five games this season, he’s already halfway to matching the best tally in an entire season, a record currently held by Adam Le Fondre, who scored eight goals as a substitute for Reading in 2012-13.
The thing about subs scoring lots of goals is that good form usually leads to them earning a starting spot, so it’s a difficult record to break, simply because goalscoring subs don’t usually remain out of the starting team for very long.
But by putting the Colombian into the starting lineup, Emery would be losing the best weapon any team has on their bench in the entire league. Durán has already scored three match-winning goals as a sub this season, and Aston Villa have come from behind to win their last two games, with Durán scoring their third and final goal in both.
Durán could be forgiven for getting itchy feet, but Emery would also be justified in wanting to keep him on the bench. It’s a conundrum, but a very good one to have.
Chelsea Have Clicked
Ahead of schedule, and earlier than anyone probably realistically expected, Chelsea appear to have found their stride under Enzo Maresca. Saturday’s convincing and comprehensive 3-0 win at West Ham sent them fifth, with only Manchester City (13) having scored more goals than them (11) this season.
Nicolas Jackson is third in the goalscoring charts, with four, and Cole Palmer is second for assists, also on four. Jackson turned creator to set up Palmer for Chelsea’s third goal on Saturday, meaning the two of them have now combined for 10 Premier League goals, which is at least two more than any other pair since the start of last season.
One major problem last season was that Jackson wasn’t finishing off enough of the many chances he was getting, so if Maresca has now fixed that, Chelsea have taken a major step towards once again being a team that can compete at the top end of the Premier League. Jackson’s four goals this season have come from 3.3 expected goals (xG), after he scored 14 from 18.6 xG last term, which hints at a big improvement on that front.
Chelsea are far from the finished product, but making winning look as simple as they did at such an early stage in the season bodes well both for the campaign and for Maresca’s reign.
Liverpool Finally Have Their Mané Replacement
Ever since Liverpool sold Sadio Mané, they’ve been without an adequate replacement for him. They’ve essentially been waiting for Luis Díaz to become that player, and maybe he now finally has.
Two goals at the weekend took the forward to five in five for the season, a total that would in any normal season put him in contention for first place in the scoring charts. Only the superhuman Haaland is now ahead of him.
Díaz is developing a single-mindedness in the final third that the best goalscorers need – he had four shots and completed three successful dribbles on Saturday – and while he doesn’t quite have the finishing ability to justify every one of his attempts – there was one occasion in particular at the weekend when he should have got his head up instead of shooting – his overall game is improving at an incredible rate at the moment.
His decision-making in some key moments could be better, but when that comes, he could help soften the blow when the day finally comes that Mohamed Salah’s Liverpool career ends.
Díaz has a long way to go to providing quite as much attacking threat as Salah, but he’s approaching a level that he could at least now be argued to be a sufficient replacement for the popular Mané, who left Anfield for Bayern Munich in 2022.
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