It’s always fun to identify the owners of the best pitches in a given season, and there are some good ones in 2024. It’s one thing to go by the eye test, but numbers don’t lie. We have the data behind the most valuable pitches in baseball.
The first half of the 2024 MLB season has left us with incredible sensations and emotions.
While players enjoy the All-Star break and continue to bring excitement to fans, we will take some time to spot and analyze the most valuable pitches of the year so far.
To do that, we’re using accumulated raw value (RV), a metric that incorporates discipline, contact and damage done (or not done) upon contact to measure performance on a pitch-by-pitch level as opposed to the final result of the at-bat. For pitching RV, the lower the better.
Have you ever thought about whose four-seam fastball has been the most effective in the league this year? How about who has excelled when throwing other pitch types?
We’re revealing which pitchers had the best offerings in each pitch type in the first half:
SLIDER
No. 1: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (-16.1)
Next Best: Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres (-15.0)
We know how valuable Dylan Cease’s slider can be. In fact, it’s the second most valuable pitch in MLB this year. First place, however, belongs to a supremely talented pitcher who is having a comeback season for the ages: Chris Sale.
Sale finished last year with a 4.30 ERA in 102.2 frames. The Boston Red Sox traded him to the Atlanta Braves, where he has flourished again now that he is fully healthy: a 2.70 ERA with a 2.31 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), a 13-3 record, and 140 strikeouts in 110 innings make him one of the Cy Young favorites in the National League to date.
Of course, if you have watched a Sale pitch, you know everything starts and ends with the slider. The offering leads all baseball with a minus-16.1 total raw value.
Sale’s closest competitor when it comes to slider value, Cease, checks in at -15.0. Sale and Cease own the two most valuable pitches of any kind in the entire league, though there is a sizable gap between the two.
You can say Sale’s slider is a legitimate triple threat. It misses plenty of bats (137 whiff+; league average is 100), it generates lots of strikes (132 strike+) and he can do what he wants with it (110 command+). There is a reason why hitters have a .165 batting average against the pitch: it’s so, so good that he uses it 39.2% of the time (43.6% when he is ahead on the count).
FOUR-SEAM FASTBALL
No. 1: Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (-14.3)
Next Best: Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (-13.6)
Ryan’s four-seamer averages “just” 94.1 mph. Velocity-wise, it’s about average (even though he has quietly added more velo year after year). So why is the pitch so good?
Well, several things. First of all, he throws it from such a low release point that it gives him an incredibly favorable vertical approach angle (VAA), and that gives hitters fits. He also creates a lot of extension (6.9 feet) and that is another point in his favor.
The whole package has returned the third-most valuable pitch of 2024 so far, with a -14.3 RV. When it comes to RV- (which is essentially the rate version of raw value, with 100 being league average), Ryan’s heater is fantastic with a 46 mark.
The pitch continually yields desirable outcomes for the right-hander: lots of strikes (124 strike+) and missed bats (159 whiff+), not to mention the fact he boasts an uncanny ability to locate it at will (111 command+).
SPLITTER
No. 1: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.4)
Next Best: Fernando Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (-6.9)
You would be amused to learn that rookie Paul Skenes, the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star Game, leads baseball in total raw value for splitters.
And you might think that’s a bit unfair since Skenes’ splitter is actually considered a “splinker” as more of a splitter/sinker combo. However, it’s still impressive considering the righty was in the minors over the first month and a half of the 2024 campaign.
The runner-up Cruz is sporting a poor ERA (4.65) and a spectacular FIP (2.87). He is truly overpowering as his 184 career strikeouts in just 121.1 innings pitched attest, but he is also prone to walks.
One of these days, the FIP will match the ERA and he will get the recognition he deserves.
CHANGEUP
No. 1: Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (-9.5)
Next Best: Michael King, San Diego Padres (-7.8)
Sanchez, an All-Star for the first time, has been one of the breakout performers of the first half. He was solid last year with a 3.44 ERA in 99.1 frames, but he has taken it up a notch in 2024 with a 2.96 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 103.1 innings before the break.
Sanchez has a solid arsenal, but the changeup is clearly the superior pitch. Among those who have thrown the change at least 200 times, Sanchez has the third-most horizontal movement (-10.7 inches on average) on the offering. It’s truly a nightmare for hitters:
The pitch’s -9.5 RV and 50 RV- tell you everything you need to know. It generates lots of empty swings (130 whiff+) and he earns lots of strikes with it (117 strike+).
The changeup is Sanchez’s go-to secondary pitch and his put-away offering. He throws it 33.7% of the time but the number goes up to 53.9% when he is ahead in the count and 50.5% with two strikes.
CUTTER
No. 1: Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees (-11.1)
Next Best: Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (-10.5)
Shoulder issues derailed Cortes’ 2023 campaign, limiting him to 12 starts. The 2024 season, however, has seen him rise from the ashes and post a rock-solid 3.67 ERA. The 115.1 innings he has thrown to this point rank him 11th in the American League.
Part of what allows him to work quickly and get a lot of easy outs is his cutter. Its horizontal movement is hell for both righties and lefties. Among those who have thrown it at least 200 times, Cortes has the ninth-most horizontal movement (2.2 inches on average) on the cutter.
Righties think they are seeing a four-seamer, and all of a sudden, the pitch is near their hands. As you can expect, it has yielded an elite -11.1 RV, fueled by an incredible 56 BIP+ against.
Cortes’ cutter is above average in all three aspects of pitching: whiff+ (127), strike+ (107) and command+ (106). He has mastered the art of disrupting hitters’ rhythm with it, and you know he trusts the pitch because he uses it most often behind on the count (43.1%).
TWO-SEAM FASTBALL
No. 1: Tyler Rogers, San Francisco Giants (-9.4)
Next Best: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (-8.5)
In MLB, there are uncomfortable pitchers, and then there is Rogers. Just about every hitter will tell you that getting a good look, let alone a quality swing, off a submariner or a sidearmer is among the hardest things in the game.
Rogers’ two-seamer is absolutely disgusting because of its release angle and vertical break, but also because he also throws a “rising fastball” (a four-seamer that arrives to the plate in the low 80s) and batters don’t really know whether the pitch will sink or rise.
If we go to the numbers, Rogers’ two-seamer (or sinker) has returned tremendous value, with a -9.4 RV, a 31 RV- (!), and a minuscule 27 BIP+ against. In other words, hitters inflict virtually no damage on contact, even if Rogers’ whiff+ on the pitch (93) is actually a bit below average.
You can clearly see why Rogers has been so good over his six-year career (2.91 ERA) and why he has been so successful this year with a 2.58 ERA and a 34/3 K/BB ratio.
CURVEBALL
No. 1: Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves (-10.1)
Next Best: Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (-7.9)
Last, but not least, the king of curveballs makes his appearance. Time always passes by, but not for Morton, who has a solid 4.07 ERA and will turn 41 in November. The hook, of course, is behind it all.
At -10.1, Morton’s go-to breaking ball is the best pitch of its kind after the end of the first half. It also has a 125 whiff+ and a really impressive 113 command+ considering how much it breaks and moves. He can truly do whatever he wants with it.
Needless to say, Morton likes to “go for the kill” with that beautiful curveball, as he throws it 55.1% of the time when there are two strikes on the count. He usually tries to get chases in the bottom part of the zone and the dirt, and more often than not, he gets them.
His fastball velocity might be on the decline, but that hook never gets old.
SWEEPER
No. 1: Ryan Walker, San Francisco Giants (-5.8)
Next Best: Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs (-5.8)
This one is as close as it can get with Walker just marginally ahead of Steele with the most valuable sweeper at the All-Star break. But Walker gets a lot of swing and miss on the pitch (115 whiff+), while Steele gets more soft contact (60 BIP+).
Walker’s sweeper, which he throws 45.2% of the time and 51.0% with two strikes, has helped him become one of the best relievers in the majors with a 2.32 ERA in 48 appearances this season.
Steele, meanwhile, goes to his sweeper 29.7% of the time and 43.6% with two strikes. It’s one of main reasons why he has an MLB-best 1.48 ERA over nine starts since May 27.
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