A dominating team and a surprising squad make for great contrast as the NBA Finals provide the last dance of the 2023-24 season. Our TRACR playoff projection model heavily favors the Boston Celtics, but the Dallas Mavericks may have something to say about it as we break down the best-of-seven series, which tips off Thursday night.
At long last, the NBA Finals are here with a juicy plot: The Boston Celtics are going for history and the Dallas Mavericks are trying to prevent it from happening with an upset.
The Celtics were the Eastern Conference’s top seed and seemed destined to get to this stage since the NBA playoffs’ start in April. On the other end, the Mavericks are this year’s Cinderella team after climbing past three of the top four teams in the Western Conference (all but the Denver Nuggets).
The Celtics, under coach Joe Mazzulla, are seeking their 18th all-time NBA championship, which would break a tie with the Los Angeles Lakers for the most in history. The Mavs’ lone title came in 2011, when head coach Jason Kidd was their starting guard.
Before the NBA Finals tip off with the Celtics holding home-court advantage, let’s go over all the relevant statistics, matchups and storylines surrounding this clash of titans.
2024 NBA Finals
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
Eastern Conference First Round – Boston Celtics: Beat Miami Heat 4-1; Western Conference First Round – Dallas Mavericks: Beat Los Angeles Clippers 4-2
Eastern Conference Semifinals – Boston: Beat Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1; Western Conference Semifinals – Dallas: Beat Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2
Eastern Conference Finals – Boston: Beat Indiana Pacers 4-0; Western Conference Finals – Dallas: Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1
Regular-Season Records – Boston: 64-18; Dallas: 50-32. Head-to-Head Record – Boston 2-0 vs. Dallas
Schedule (All times ET and games on ABC) – Game 1: June 6 at Boston (8:30 p.m.); Game 2: June 9 at Boston (8 p.m.); Game 3: June 12 at Dallas (8:30 p.m.); Game 4: June 14 at Dallas (8:30 p.m.); Game 5 (if necessary): June 17 at Boston (8:30 p.m.); Game 6 (if necessary): June 20 at Dallas (8:30 p.m.); Game 7 (if necessary): June 23 at Boston (8 p.m.)
Team Ratings – Boston: No. 1 in O-TRACR, No. 3 in D-TRACR, No. 1 in TRACR; Dallas: No. 3 in O-TRACR, No. 13 in D-TRACR, No. 5 in TRACR
DRIP Leaders – Boston: Jayson Tatum (3.5); Dallas: Luka Doncic (6.1)
PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Boston: Jayson Tatum (26.9)/Jayson Tatum (8.1)/Derrick White (5.2); Dallas: Luka Doncic (33.9)/Luka Doncic (9.2)/Luka Doncic (9.8)
Conference Playoff MVPs – Boston: Jaylen Brown (East); Dallas: Luka Doncic (West)
Potential Defensive Assignments – Boston: Jrue Holiday guarding Luka Doncic, Derrick White guarding Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown guarding PJ Washington, Jayson Tatum guarding Daniel Gafford, Kristaps Porzinigs guarding Derrick Jones Jr.; Dallas: Kyrie Irving guarding Derrick White, Luka Doncic guarding Jrue Holiday, Derrick Jones Jr. guarding Jayson Tatum, PJ Washington guarding Jaylen Brown, Daniel Gafford guarding Kristaps Porzingis
Storyline No. 1 – Defending Doncic: We just finished watching Luka Doncic scorch the best defense in the NBA (Minnesota Timberwolves) to the tune of 32.4 points and 8.2 assists per game with 62.7% true shooting. He’s been so good while producing the most points, rebounds and assists in the playoffs (as part of playing in the most games) that people are now wondering whether Doncic is the best player in the league. So, how do the Celtics, who have the third-ranked defense, plan to defend him? In theory, they should have a handful of strong options in Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. However, in the teams’ March 1 meeting, Doncic was tough on all four of those fierce defenders at one point or another (see this video montage). More importantly, Doncic (along with Kyrie Irving) looked very comfortable against Boston’s base pick-and-roll defense – drop coverage. Who does Boston plan to use to defend Doncic? And how do they plan to defend the pick-and-roll master?
Storyline No. 2 – Defending The J’s: The great thing about touting two big, strong wing/forward scorers (Brown and Tatum) is opposing teams need two big, strong wing/forward defenders to deal with them. No team in the postseason has offered that against the Celtics. The Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers all had one such player, who they usually put on Tatum. That’s a big reason why Brown has enjoyed so much success in these NBA playoffs (25 PPG on 61% true shooting). The Mavericks, though, may have the personnel to counter this tandem. All postseason, PJ Washington (0.6 D-DRIP) and Derrick Jones Jr. (0.8 D-DRIP) have been using their size and physicality to handle difficult matchups. Do Washington and Jones have what it takes to avoid being steamrolled by Boston’s dynamic duo?
Storyline No. 3 – Tatum/Brown Decision-Making: While we’re on the subject of Boston’s 2023 and ‘24 NBA All-Star Game duo, one of the bigger critiques of the team over time has been late-game offense. A major reason the offense tends to bog down during crunch time is Tatum and Brown’s shortcomings as playmakers. This postseason, the Mavericks have prioritized shrinking the floor and protecting the paint at all costs (fourth in opponent points in the paint per 100 possessions, per NBA.com). This style forces lead ball handlers to make swift decisions and identify the openings created by Dallas’ defensive concessions. During their March 1 matchup, we saw Tatum fail to do this on multiple occasions, including this time:
Will Tatum and Brown write their wrongs this go around? How does Dallas’ defense counter if they do?
Storyline No. 4 – Porzingis’ Health: After Kristaps Porzingis missed Boston’s last 10 playoff games (the Celtics were 9-1 in that time), it appears the 7-foot-3 power forward/center who’s arguably the team’s second-best player will be available for the NBA Finals. This matters because not only is Porzingis the Celtics’ best paint protector (96th percentile block rate), but he’s also one of the best spacing big men in the league (91st percentile in 3-point volume among centers). Porzingis’ willingness to sling it from downtown completely unlocks the Celtics’ No. 1-ranked offense. Mavericks big men Rudy Gobert, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II can’t sag off Porzingis without paying a tax. Plus, Porzingis can penalize drop coverage (something Dallas likes to turn to pretty often) with the pick-and-pop. A healthy Porzingis creates problems for the Mavs that they haven’t had to solve yet – problems we aren’t sure they’re equipped to solve. The only question is: Can Porzingis remain healthy long enough for the Celtics to reap the benefits?
Storyline No. 5 – Backup Center Minutes: During the NBA playoffs, the Mavericks are minus-30 when Gafford is on the floor and plus-108 when Lively is on it. Some of this has to do with the fact the rookie Lively has had an immediate impact from the start of the second season (as we predicted). But some of this also is a result of the fact that when their opponents are forced to rest their starting center with a regular backup big, the Mavericks have the luxury of having a starting-caliber center on the floor at all times.
As Jackson Frank’s tweet above suggests, the Mavericks’ opponents fare pretty well when their starting center is on the floor. It is the minutes those starting bigs have to rest when Dallas swoops in for the kill. If Porzingis is healthy, Al Horford (0.5 DRIP) will be easily the best backup center the Mavericks have had to face during this run. Is he good enough to handle Dallas’ lob brothers? Or will the Mavericks’ decision to acquire a second starting center in Gafford at the NBA trade deadline continue to be a stroke of genius?
TRACR Win Probability (as of June 5) – Boston: 81.9%; Dallas: 18.1%
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