Surely, you’ve seen what anti-NBA trade deadline folks must be claiming rather slowwwwwly on social media:
“The TrAde DEAdLine doESn’T Have ANy REAl IMpACT On WHat HAppEns iN thE pLAyoffs.”
Well, all you have to do is look back to last season to see the impact of the NBA trade deadline – that anything else is a baseless claim.
To the Los Angeles Lakers, who had a 25-30 record before a series of wise transactions pushed them to a 18-9 finish after the 2023 deadline, then go from the play-in round to a Western Conference Finals appearance.
Or to the Brooklyn Nets, who were 32-22 before a pair of deals that said goodbye to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving torpedoed them from Eastern Conference title contenders to first-round playoff fodder.
Whoever says the NBA trade deadline inconsequential is dead wrong. That’s why we are using our adjusted team rating model to look at the teams that have seen the greatest improvement or decline since the 2024 trade deadline on Feb. 8. (Ratings are through April 3)
Dallas Mavericks: Risers
Pre-NBA Trade Deadline Ratings: No. 5 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 23 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 16 in adjusted team rating
Current Ratings: No. 5 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 13 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 7 in adjusted team rating
Few teams were as active as the Dallas Mavericks leading into the NBA trade deadline. They executed a pair of deals with the lowly Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards to acquire PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, respectively.
Washington gives the Mavericks more size (he’s 6-foot-7 with a 7-2½ wingspan) than their former starting power forward, Grant Williams (6-6 with a 6-9¾ wingspan), and a more versatile defender (D-DRIP of 0.4 compared to Williams’ -0.5). Plus, Washington appears to be a lot more well-received by his teammates.
Meanwhile, Gafford guarantees Luka Doncic (pick-and-roll extraordinaire) can have a great roll man flanking him on the court at all times. Like their rookie standout Dereck Lively II, Gafford is a great rim runner/lob finisher. If Dallas coach Jason Kidd chooses, he can have at least one of them on the floor for all 48 minutes.
The additions have vaulted the Mavericks up nine spots in adjusted team rating and from a middle-of-the-pack team to one with a puncher’s chance at winning the NBA title.
Los Angeles Clippers: Fallers
Pre-NBA Trade Deadline Ratings: No. 1 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 14 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 5 in adjusted team rating
Current Ratings: No. 3 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 24 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 16 in adjusted team rating
The Los Angeles Clippers authored a blockbuster deal shortly after the start of the season by trading for former NBA MVP James Harden. The move served them well for a while as their No. 5 ATR at the trade deadline attests.
However, the Clippers still had their flaws even back in the first three-plus months of the season. While their roster is jam-packed with elite offensive personnel (Harden and All-Stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George all have a top-26 ranking in the NBA in O-DRIP), their defense left something to be desired.
Los Angeles had the means to add another defensive-minded wing/forward at the trade deadline – namely, a 2030 first-round draft pick – but instead, the Clippers chose to stand pat for the most part.
Since then, their defense has dropped from 14th in adjusted defensive rating to 24th.
The Clippers can still presumably get back on track before the postseason (it’s easy to be positive toward a team that rosters Killer Kawhi), but their passivity at the trade deadline might come back to bite them if they match up against the big dogs in the Western Conference in the playoffs.
Miami Heat: Risers
Pre-NBA Trade Deadline Ratings: No. 24 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 9 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 18 in adjusted team rating
Current Ratings: No. 21 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 4 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 12 in adjusted team rating
The Miami Heat made their big splash a couple weeks before the trade deadline, nabbing elite combo guard Terry Rozier from the Hornets. He not only has addressed many of the team’s weaknesses – ball handling, spacing and three-level scoring – but also has the grittiness necessary to thrive in the competitive ecosystem that is Heat Culture.
Rozier’s addition has been instrumental in their slight bump in adjusted offensive rating – 24th to 21st – despite the myriad of injuries they’ve navigated all season.
With that said, the most important change since the trade deadline has been with their defense. One of the big reasons Miami made it all the way to the 2023 NBA Finals was their elite/versatile Hyena Heat defense. That unit was good (ninth in ADR) before the trade deadline; since then, they’ve ratcheted up the intensity (fourth in ADR) in preparation for another (potential) Cinderella run in the playoffs.
(Sidebar: Ten days after the trade deadline, the Heat added Delon Wright on the buyout market. Miami’s roster was already chalk full of strong defensive personnel, but Wright’s 1.3 D-DRIP has definitely helped solidify their ironclad defense.)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Fallers
Pre-NBA Trade Deadline Ratings: No. 15 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 2 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 3 in adjusted team rating
Current Ratings: No. 18 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 10 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 18 in adjusted team rating
The Cleveland Cavaliers were sizzling hot heading into the trade deadline at No. 3 in ATR, so they chose to not make any moves to shake up their roster. That makes sense, right?
Well, not exactly. As we discussed in a deep dive on them in late January, the Cavs have some issues with fitting all the pieces together. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are largely redundant of one another, and so are Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
When Garland and Mobley went down with injuries, it allowed the Cavaliers to play lineups that made more sense alongside Mitchell and Allen (they surrounded them with more size, defense and shooting). Now, Garland and Mobley are healthy, and the fit issues have reared their ugly heads once more.
Instead of taking a big swing and trying to leverage their star power into a roster with more cohesion, the Cavaliers crossed their fingers and hoped the problems would fix themselves. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, and their once-impressive ATR has dropped 15 spots all the way to No. 18.
Denver Nuggets: Risers
Pre-NBA Trade Deadline Ratings: No. 7 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 11 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 8 in adjusted team rating
Current Ratings: No. 6 in adjusted offensive rating; No. 9 in adjusted defensive rating; No. 4 in adjusted team rating
Unlike the Clippers and Cavaliers, who have been penalized for their inactivity at the trade deadline, the Denver Nuggets have thrived after hibernating during the transactional mecca.
Pre-deadline, the defending NBA champs were merely the eighth-best team this season, according to ATR. Since then, they have tightened up their offense (from seventh to sixth in AOR) and battened down the hatches on defense (11th to ninth in ADR). As a result, they have rejoined the inner circle of title contenders – ranking fourth in ATR, trailing only the Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Our NBA prediction model gives the Nuggets the fourth-best chance of winning the NBA championship (10.8%), and their duo of Nikola Jokic (second in DRIP) and Jamal Murray (36th in DRIP) is performing like the best two-man team in basketball.
The reason for the Nuggets’ post-deadline surge is likely as simple as a lion awakening from a deep sleep to remind the entire food chain they’re still the king of a jungle.
If they keep pushing forward (and choose not to rest before the playoffs), look for Denver to keep climbing up the ATR leaderboards.
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