Collins leads the league in receiving yards and total EVE during a breakout start, but the Bills have one of the NFL’s stingiest pass defenses. It will be one of the most intriguing in-game matchups of the Week 5.
Stefon Diggs will go back to being the main attraction off the field this week, something that’s yet to materialize on it during his short time with the Houston Texans.
The indisputable central storyline of Sunday’s game between the Texans and Buffalo Bills at Houston’s NRG Stadium is Diggs’ first meeting with his ex-employers since being traded away in the offseason.
His former team figures to be more focused on the Texans’ other top-tier playmaker, however.
Houston sits at 3-1 and in first place in the AFC South in no small part due to the dominant play of wide receiver Nico Collins. He’s the NFL’s leader with 489 receiving yards through four weeks and our No. 1 receiver in total EVE (efficiency vs. expected) – yards gained compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation.
He put to rest concerns over a hamstring injury that put him on the injury report last week by hauling in a career-high 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s 24-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In a season that’s been full of surprises thus far, the fourth-year pro’s continued place atop the Texans’ hierarchy of pass catchers is something very few observers could realistically have seen coming.
The common belief was that Collins’ usage would decline from his breakout 2023 campaign with presence of 2023 draft pick Tank Dell and the bold acquisition of Diggs, whose 445 receptions during his prolific four-year run with the Bills from 2020-23 were the most in the NFL over that period.
That hasn’t even remotely been the case, as Collins’ target rate has surged – and substantially so – in the Texans’ revised and more dangerous passing attack of 2024.
Collins was targeted on 23.2% of Houston’s total adjusted pass attempts during the 17 games he appeared in (including playoffs) last season. That number is up to a whopping 29.3% during the Texans’ strong start to 2024, a rate that ranks in the top six of all NFL receivers.
The big-bodied 25-year-old Michigan product has raised his efficiency level as well while amassing the most receiving yards through a season’s first four games in franchise history. Collins has recorded a burn on 67.4% of his targets thus far, up from his 61.6% rate of last season and a highly impressive mark for a player who sees the majority of his looks on downfield throws.
HIGHEST BURN YARDS PER ROUTE (MIN. 75 ROUTES)
- 4.13 – Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
- 3.92 – Nico Collins, Houston Texans
- 3.90 – Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
- 3.79 – Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
- 3.61 – Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Collins’ continued ascent into premier-receiver territory has helped make the Texans a viable Super Bowl contender according to our projection model, even if it may not be going over too well with Diggs’ fantasy managers in PPR leagues.
Though he’s been a very important part of the Houston offense, the four-time Pro Bowler’s 25 catches, 233 receiving yards and 33 targets are all lower through four games of a season than any time during his Buffalo tenure, the possible effects of making the adjustment to both a new set of teammates and a much different role than what he was accustomed to with the Bills.
The Texans have deployed Diggs in the slot on 62.7% of his routes, around double the combined rate during his four years in Buffalo. That strategy has produced higher open (84.8) and catch (75.8) percentages than any of his seasons with the Bills, but it’s come at the cost of a greatly reduced frequency of explosive plays and a below-par burn rate of 48.5%.
One may surmise that Diggs’ addition as a dependable short-area specialist has allowed Collins to elevate his game, but the correlation may not be as significant as it initially appears.
Collins is actually getting open at a lower rate than last season (72.8% in 2024, 80.8% in 2023), so it’s not as if he’s simply benefiting from added attention defenses may be paying his new running mate.
The biggest factor for Collins’ sensational September may be quarterback C.J. Stroud’s improved accuracy in Year 2 of his NFL career, particularly on the intermediate routes that are the bread and butter of his top receiver’s repertoire.
After ranking 31st of 35 quarterbacks with 200 or more adjusted attempts in well-thrown percentage during his 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, Stroud has upped that number from 77.5 last season to 82.8 so far in this one. And his biggest strides have come on throws of 11-to-20 air yards, the category where Collins has received nearly 42% of his targets while topping the NFL in receptions (13) and receiving yards (247) within that range.
Stroud completed less than half (48.9%) of those 11-to-20 air-yard attempts as a rookie. He’s connected on 60% (21 of 35) of such throws this season, the second-highest accuracy among the six quarterbacks with 30 or more attempts of that distance (Brock Purdy is first at 77.8%).
The Bills have a defense capable of slowing down Collins, but they’ll need to crank up a suspect pass rush to have their best chance.
The Bills may still be licking their wounds from last week’s 35-10 beatdown by the Baltimore Ravens that ended an eight-game regular-season winning streak for the current No. 1 team in the AFC East standings dating back to 2023. The good news is they should have a more advantageous matchup against Houston than the ultra-physical Ravens.
Baltimore overpowered the Bills with an imposing ground attack that churned out 271 rushing yards, but the Texans aren’t as likely to expose Buffalo’s weakest link the way the Ravens could – especially with top running back Joe Mixon on track to miss a third straight game with a sprained ankle.
The Bills are better equipped to stop the pass, and they’ve been among the league’s best at doing so during their own 3-1 start. Buffalo is yielding the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.51) in the NFL and has given up only one play of 25 passing yards or more through the first four weeks.
Buffalo also has a track record of shutting down top-flight wide receivers in the early going. The Bills held Arizona’s supremely gifted rookie, Marvin Harrison Jr., to one catch for 4 yards in the season opener before rendering Miami gamebreaker Tyreek Hill to a harmless 24 yards on three grabs in their Week 2 blowout of the decimated Dolphins.
The Bills have allowed a league-low 344 yards to wide receivers as well as the lowest yards-per-catch rate (8.8) to wideouts, and their formidable cornerback tandem of blossoming star Christian Benford and savvy veteran Rasul Douglas could very well present the biggest challenge Collins has seen during his early-season tear.
FEWEST YARDS PER CATCH ALLOWED TO WRs
- 8.8 – Buffalo Bills
- 9.2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 9.5 – Atlanta Falcons
- 10.3 – Denver Broncos
- 10.6 – New York Giants
Benford has in particular operated at an elite level, as the 2022 sixth-round draft gem from FCS power Villanova boasts the lowest burn-allowed percentage among starting cornerbacks (13.3) while ranking second overall in both burn yards allowed per snap (0.51) and burn yards allowed per target (4.08).
LOWEST BURN-ALLOWED% BY CBs (MIN. 10 TIMES TARGETED)
- 13.3 – Christian Benford, Buffalo Bills
- 15.4 – Riq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks
- 21.4 – Jourdan Lewis, Dallas Cowboys
- 27.3 – Kristian Fulton, Los Angeles Chargers
- 27.3 – D.J. Reed, New York Jets
And on those throws of 11-to-20 air yards in which Stroud and Collins have excelled this season?
Well, the Bills have been great against those as well, as they’ve permitted the second-lowest completion percentage (36.7) and yards per attempt (5.23) on such targets, trailing only the Cleveland Browns in both categories.
This could be a scenario in which Diggs is set up for more success than Collins, which would no doubt delight the notoriously competitive veteran with a revenge angle in place.
The Bills haven’t been nearly as good in defending the slot with 2023 All-Pro nickel back Taron Johnson having missed the last three games with a forearm injury and uncertain to return this week. His replacement, Cam Lewis, has permitted the most burn yards (155) of any Buffalo defender along with a subpar open-allowed rate of 83.3%.
Collins was held in check in Houston’s lone loss this season, a 34-7 Week 3 setback to the still-unbeaten Minnesota Vikings in which nearly all of his 86 yards on four catches came in garbage time. The Vikings kept Houston’s offense under wraps that day by unleashing a merciless pass rush that generated a stout 53.8% pressure rate and resulted in two Stroud interceptions – the only ones he’s thrown over an 11-game span that includes the 2023 playoffs.
Buffalo seems hard-pressed to match Minnesota’s potency in that area. The Bills are 21st in pressure rate at 38.9% and won’t have arguably their best havoc-creator, the rejuvenated Von Miller, after the 35-year-old eight-time Pro Bowler was handed a four-game suspension by the NFL this week for violating its personal conduct policy.
The Vikings also got a lot of their disruption against Stroud on blitzes, the forte of their aggressive defensive coordinator Brian Flores. That mentality isn’t in the Bills’ DNA, though, as they’ve blitzed a league-low 17.2% of the time thus far.
Though Buffalo blitzes infrequently, the defense has been very effective on the rare occasions it does. Enemy quarterbacks have completed just 6 of 18 attempts when the Bills send extra rushers, and they rank second in the NFL in opponent passer rating (42.4) and third in sack rate (18.8%) when blitzing.
With Miller unavailable, the Bills may have to get out of their comfort zone and take some more risks, as how well they’re able to create consistent pressure figures to be one of the main determining factors in who comes out on top in a game our projection model views as a virtual toss-up.
Likewise, the Texans’ chances of increasing the 48.5% win probability they’ve been assigned greatly hinge on the prospects of another productive afternoon from Stroud and their terrific receiving duo.
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