Big Brother is watching, but maybe not enough, with the history of FCS teams beating FBS opponents quite rich. More wins appear on the way during the 2024 college football season, so we’re pinpointing some of the stronger possibilities.
Every year, FCS football fans wonder how many teams from the Division I subdivision will pick up wins against their big brothers in the FBS.
Logic would dictate this should rarely happen. FBS programs have more money and scholarships than FCS programs – and, for the most part, more fans showing up in the stadium.
Yet every year, it happens – FCS teams score wins over the FBS.
Last year, Sacramento State and Southern Illinois did so for the second consecutive season, joined by Idaho and Fordham with upsets. The wins are quite the bargaining chip come playoff time in terms of impressing the FCS selection committee.
So who might pick up FCS vs. FBS wins this season? Here are some candidates.
Five Potential FCS vs. FBS Wins
Montana State at New Mexico (Aug. 24)
Last Year’s Records: Montana State 8-4; New Mexico 4-8
Montana State’s Last FBS Win: 2006 over Colorado 19-10
The Skinny: This game may be the most-popular pick for an FCS vs. FBS win – in fact, it wouldn’t be an upset because Montana State is the betting-line favorite heading down south to Albuquerque. The host Lobos haven’t had a winning season since former coach Bob Davie was steering the ship back in 2016. Last year, they even struggled to put away one of the weakest FBS programs in UMass, although to their credit, they upset a pretty good Fresno State squad (9-4). Meanwhile, Montana State is an FCS power, with its .739 winning percentage since 2018 (51-18 record) the seventh-best in the subdivision in the time. Having a healthy Tommy Mellott at quarterback as one of the Bobcats’ five preseason All-Americans is a massive advantage.
(More in the 2024 Big Sky football preview)
North Dakota State at Colorado (Aug. 29)
Last Year’s Records: North Dakota State 11-4; Colorado 4-8
North Dakota State’s Last FBS Win: 2016 over nationally ranked Iowa 23-21
The Skinny: Colorado coach Deion Sanders hasn’t minced words when it comes to this matchup – he doesn’t like it. Coach Prime even wondered aloud why this game is on the Buffaloes’ schedule, as he knows North Dakota State’s track record against power conference opponents. The most-recent game was NDSU’s three-point loss at Arizona in 2022, but before that, the Bison had a six-game FBS win streak that included power-conference Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas State, Minnesota and Kansas. It got to the point that power-conference programs basically wouldn’t schedule the Bison. While last year’s four losses were uncharacteristic for the FCS power, this 2024 team is loaded under first-year coach Tim Polasek, opening at No. 2 in the preseason Top 25 poll.
(More in the 2024 Missouri Valley football preview)
Central Arkansas at Arkansas State (Aug. 31)
Last Year’s Records: Central Arkansas 7-5; Arkansas State 6-7
Central Arkansas’ Last FBS Win: 2019 over Western Kentucky 35-28
The Skinny: Central Arkansas is loaded with talent, and anyone from the state of Arkansas knows how much coach Nathan Brown and his Bears would love to knock off their in-state opponent in Jonesboro. If it happens, it wouldn’t be unprecedented because UCA did exactly that on the same field back in 2016, when it disposed of an eventual bowl-winning Red Wolves’ team. Don’t think there aren’t recruiting overtones to this one, either. While beating out the SEC’s Arkansas Razorbacks is a tall recruiting task for either one of these programs, UCA snagging a few kids away from Arkansas State isn’t far-fetched.
(More in the 2024 UAC football preview)
Chattanooga at Georgia State (Sept. 7)
Last Year’s Records: Chattanooga 8-5; Georgia State 7-5
Chattanooga’s Last FBS Win: 2013 over Georgia State 42-14
The Skinny: Yes, Georgia State won a bowl game last year, but the Panthers also struggled to put away an FCS program, Rhode Island (finished 6-5), in its 2023 season opener. On the flip side, Chattanooga dealt with its usual November game with an SEC or ACC team (Alabama last year) before it advanced to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, beating Austin Peay on the road in the first round. The Mocs can score points in bunches and have the weapons returning to prove it. And, hey, in 2013 these two programs met, and Chattanooga won by four touchdowns. Don’t expect that kind of margin, but don’t be surprised if the Mocs pull off another one of those coveted FCS vs. FBS wins in Atlanta.
(More in the 2024 Southern Conference football preview)
Eastern Washington at Nevada (Sept. 21)
Last Year’s Records: Eastern Washington 4-7; Nevada 2-10
Eastern Washington’s Last FBS Win: 2021 over UNLV 35-33
The Skinny: At first glance, you may wonder why Eastern Washington would be grouped with the other teams on this potential FCS vs. FBS wins list. The reason for the positive expectations? Try 18 starters back in a program that typically is a tough out in the FCS. Last year was no exception as the Eagles played a grueling schedule. Although they finished 4-7, they went to double overtime in an FBS game (an eventual bowl-bound Fresno State team) and knocked off two ranked FCS teams. Counting the Fresno State loss, EWU dropped four games by eight points or less, so it was much better than the record suggests. Also, another Big Sky squad, Idaho, hammered Nevada by 27 points, while only eight points separated EWU and the Vandals in their matchup.
Five More Potential FCS vs. FBS Wins
Lafayette over Buffalo (Aug. 29)
Southern Illinois over BYU (Aug. 31)
South Dakota State over Oklahoma State (Aug. 31)
Sacramento State over San Jose State (Aug. 31)
Idaho over Wyoming (Sept. 7)
Follow all of our FCS football coverage, including on X, Facebook and Instagram.