We look ahead to the first of the last-16 games at Euro 2024 with our Switzerland vs Italy prediction and preview.
Switzerland vs Italy Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Italy slight favourites here, giving them a 37.9% chance of winning inside 90 minutes.
- Italy are unbeaten in 11 matches against Switzerland in all competitions (W5 D6).
- The only European nation currently on a longer run than Switzerland of reaching the knockout stages at major tournaments (six in a row) is France (seven)
Whittling 24 teams down to 16 has a few interesting consequences, one of them being that some second-placed teams play one another in the first knockout round.
Switzerland and Italy were fortunate enough to avoid first-placed teams having been drawn in Groups A and B. After both finished second, they will face off in the first round-of-16 game in Berlin on Saturday.
It might have been very different for both teams, but for a couple of very late goals. The Swiss nearly came top of their group, denied only by a 92nd-minute equaliser for Germany in their final group game, while Italy were seconds away from finishing third and possibly crashing out, only for Mattia Zaccagni to score with 98 minutes on the clock to earn a draw against Croatia on the final matchday.
Italy have far more European Championship pedigree than their opponents here, but Switzerland were certainly the more impressive of the two sides in the group stage. The reigning champions conceded the earliest goal in European Championship history against lowly Albania in their first game, were outplayed from start to finish in defeat to Spain, and then required a last-gasp goal to level against Croatia.
Switzerland, meanwhile, were disappointing in their draw with Scotland but gave a good account of themselves in the draw with Germany, a performance that will give them confidence heading into the knockout stages.
They are no strangers to the latter stages of tournaments. Switzerland have reached the knockout rounds at each of the last six major international tournaments (Euros/World Cup) since the start of the 2014 World Cup. The only European nation currently enjoying a longer such run is France (seven in a row).
However, they haven’t had much luck once they have got there. Excluding shootouts, they have failed to win any of their seven round-of-16 matches at major international tournaments (D3 L4), progressing to the quarter-finals on just one occasion (eliminating France on penalties at Euro 2020).
They are clearly hard to beat, though, having lost just one of their last 13 matches at the European Championship. Any guesses for who that was against? Yep, it was a 3-0 loss to Italy in the group stage at Euro 2020.
Italy are equally difficult to beat, and their games often go the distance. Of their last 26 knockout matches at major international tournaments, 15 have gone to extra-time, including four of their last five.
Overall, the Italians have seen more games go to extra-time than any other nation across the World Cup and Euros (21), and have contested the joint-most penalty shootouts, along with Spain (both 11).
They will hope they don’t have to rely on goalkeeper and captain Gianluigi Donnarumma quite as much in this game as they have done so far. He made 11 saves in the group stage, the most by an Italian goalkeeper in the group stage of a major tournament since Gianluigi Buffon at Euro 2012 (also 11).
Switzerland vs Italy Head-to-Head
This head-to-head is pretty one-sided…
Since winning 1-0 in a May 1993 World Cup qualifier, Switzerland are winless in 11 matches against Italy in all competitions (D6 L5). They are only on longer current winless runs against England (13 games) and Russia (12, including games as USSR), while Italy are only on longer current unbeaten runs against Finland (14) and Turkey (13).
This will be the teams’ fifth meeting at a major international tournament; the Swiss won both games at the 1954 World Cup (2-1 in the group and 4-1 in the group play-off) but Italy have won the last two, both in the group stages and both times 3-0 wins – in the 1962 World Cup and at Euro 2020.
Switzerland vs Italy Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Italy slight favourites to win this one, giving them a 37.9% chance of winning, compared to 30.9% for Switzerland.
Switzerland won’t have many better chances to upset the apple cart, though, and after a positive display against Germany, may fancy their chances.
At the time of writing, Italy are given just a 4.9% chance of repeating their Euro 2020 success. Switzerland are even less likely, with their chances of springing a surprise and winning Euro 2024 rated at 2.3%.
Switzerland vs Italy Squads
Switzerland
Gregor Kobel, Yann Sommer, Yvon Mvogo, Cédric Zesiger, Fabian Schär, Leonidas Stergiou, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi, Ricardo Rodríguez, Silvan Widmer, Ardon Jashari, Denis Zakaria, Fabian Rieder, Granit Xhaka, Michel Aebischer, Remo Freuler, Renato Steffen, Rubén Vargas, Steven Zuber, Vincent Sierro, Xherdan Shaqiri, Breel Embolo, Dan Ndoye, Kwadwo Duah, Noah Okafor, Zeki Amdouni.
Head coach: Murat Yakin
Italy
Alex Meret, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Guglielmo Vicario, Alessandro Bastoni, Alessandro Buongiorno, Andrea Cambiaso, Federico Dimarco, Federico Gatti, Gianluca Mancini, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Matteo Darmian, Raoul Bellanova, Riccardo Calafiori, Bryan Cristante, Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Michael Folorunsho, Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Fagioli, Federico Chiesa, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Mateo Retegui, Mattia Zaccagni, Stephan El Shaarawy.
Head coach: Luciano Spalletti
Switzerland vs Italy Predicted Lineups
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