The Euro 2024 group stage is now over, with 16 teams remaining in the competition. Ahead of the knockout stage, we look at the latest Euro 2024 predictions by the Opta supercomputer.

With the group stage complete, 36 of the 51 matches at Euro 2024 have already been played. So, we should have a better idea of which nations are best placed to win the competition… right?

England were tipped as the Opta supercomputer favourites before a ball was kicked, and despite some sleep-inducing performances from the Three Lions on the way to topping Group C, they remain favourites to win Euro 2024 as we head into the round of 16 this weekend.

After the group stage concluded last night, the supercomputer has again simulated Euro 2024 10,000 times and it makes Gareth Southgate’s side favourites at 20%. That’s 0.1% higher than their pre-tournament chance (19.9%).

Who Will Win Euro 2024 Knockouts

True, England may have struggled to break down opponents in the group stage, but they still won the group and have the best defence in the tournament according to expected goals, conceding shots worth just 1.15 xG. They allowed Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia just nine shots on target combined in Group C.

A big reason for England being favourites is that they have been placed in the ‘kinder’ half of the knockout stage draw, too.

Of the seven other top eight FIFA-ranked European sides remaining at Euro 2024, five are in the other side of the draw, with England unable to meet France (2nd in the world), Belgium (3rd), Portugal (6th), Spain (8th) or hosts Germany (16th) until the final. Only Netherlands (7th) and Italy (10th) are in England’s half, with the Three Lions potentially meeting the Italians in the quarter-finals and Dutch in the semi-finals.

At the time of publishing our pre-tournament Euro 2024 predictions on 4 June, France were second favourites to win it at 19.1%. The Opta supercomputer was presuming that they’d win Group D and therefore qualify in the other half of the knockout bracket. As it turned out, they could only finish second behind shock group-winners Austria, and now have a horrible draw, potentially facing Belgium, Portugal and Spain/Germany before even getting to the final.

That difficult route has seen their chances of winning Euro 2024 drop by 5.7% to 13.4%, making them fourth favourites – the biggest drop of any nation left in the European Championship this summer.

Opta Euro 2024 Predictions

The biggest risers in the Opta supercomputer projections for glory at Euro 2024 are Spain, who have seen their chances of winning the tournament jump from 9.6% before a ball was kicked (fourth highest) to 17.2% now.

Spain were the only team to win all three of their group games at Euro 2024, and did so in one of the hardest groups, placed alongside reigning champions Italy, 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Croatia and Albania. They didn’t concede a single goal in their three matches and now face the lowest-ranked side left in the competition with a last-16 tie versus Georgia to come on Sunday.

Host nation Germany need to get past a tough last-16 test in Denmark on Saturday in Dortmund, before a likely meeting with the Spanish in the quarters. Germany have not won a knockout game at a major international tournament since Euro 2016, while no host nation has managed to win the European Championship since France in 1984. The Opta supercomputer currently rates their chance of winning Euro 2024 at 15.8%.

Reigning champions Italy are given a 4.9% chance of making it to back-to-back European Championship wins, something last achieved by Spain in 2012, but their performances at the tournament so far have, like England, underwhelmed. Their projected chance of glory is below that of Portugal (8.3%) and Netherlands (6.7%), while it’s only 1.0% higher than Austria – the surprise team of the group stage.

The Austrians topped Group D ahead of France and Netherlands, impressing in all three games under the lead of Ralf Rangnick. They’ve never got past the round of 16 at a European Championship tournament, so if they beat Turkey next Tuesday, they’ll be in uncharted territory.

With so many strong nations in one half of the draw, could we end up having a surprise winner of Euro 2024? The biggest shock in Euros history came in 2004 when Greece won the tournament despite being the 35th ranked team in the FIFA Rankings coming into the finals. Of the sixteen teams left at this tournament, Turkey (42nd), Slovakia (45th), Romania (47th), Slovenia (57th) and Georgia (74th) are all placed lower in the current FIFA rankings than Greece were 20 years ago. Of those five sides, Turkey (1.8%) are given the best current chance of glory this summer – 0.3% higher than their pre-tournament chance of 1.5%.

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